EMC Challenge Open

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Jens Fahbring - 3 points each-way @ 18-1 (general)

Thomas Linard -  2 points each-way @ 50-1 (Unibet/888/32Red)

Although the Challenge Tour has been something of a minefield this year, the EMC Challenge (ex-Roma Golf Open amongst other titles) has always produced an excellent winner and a top-class leaderboard. The first two winners, Edoardo Molinari and Mikael Lundberg have made their mark on the main Tour whilst Sam Little, winner in 2011 before the event took a three-year break, was winning his third event of the season. Last season, Ricardo Gouveia won his first event of what has to be a long career, from a leaderboard that was packed with in-form and talented players, many of which may have taken their time but are now showing up well on the main Tour (see Fritsch, Fitpatrick, Edberg et al). In other words, most placed players have been those that have shown good form in the higher quality events (Karnten, Czech, Kazakhstan etc) and with just three 'regular' events to go, it seems better to concentrate at the head of the market, or at least the top 25 or so. Given only nine players finished level-par or better in 2014, we can safely say this is a proper test of golf and not a dull birdie-fest.

Defending champion Gouveia is obvious after a mammoth season of nine top-10s but his form took a dip recently and he'll be glad of the few weeks rest after that 21st at Kazakhstan, foillowing a rare missed-cut. He says that he is now ready to regain top slot on the Race To Oman, having looked clear favourite until Sebastian Gros' win last time, and he has never diverted from that target, one he has mentioned many times this season. However, if on the ante-post 16-1 for the title I am not sure taking 18-1 for this is the way forward even if his chance is obvious.

Unlike most weeks, this looks very open amongst the 'stars' of this league and my short 'shortlist' has had to narrowed down from around ten players, purely by way of price.

In terms of the best value, Frenchman Thomas Linard fits the bill at 50-1. The 27-year-old improved through his Alps Tour career to finish top-10 in the rankings in 2013 before a rookie season at this level saw him win the Czech Challenge (final round 64) and an end-of-year ranking of 31st. His form this year doesn't show a victory but runner-up finishes at the Nejati and Le Vaudreuill only one round over 69 at each event) show a player that can challenge on good quality courses and recent form is excellent - top-20s at the Gant and Rolex, before a top-10 last time in Kazakhstan. The form shows an upwards trajectory and with only a 5-over 76 in his second round here last year to spoil an otherwise decent tournament (finished 22nd), he is expected to keep improving and challenge here this week. Currently 11th in the rankings, he still needs a couple of good finishes to ensure he isn't playing under pressure in Oman and there seems little reason why he couldn't have been priced closer to 35/40.

I found it tough to split many of these and the likes of Rhys Davies and the excellent prospect Dean Burmester should be contending if the class element is right - the South African is far better than his 59th ranking and should be followed wherever he plays in 2016 but his advntage is length - whilst Stone, Shinkwin, Gros and Im all have claims.

However, I am going in for the final time on an old favourite in Jens Fahbring. The Swede's price can be said to have gone after a superb 3rd in Italy on the main Tour last time but I'm not sure about that and he looks very hard to knock out the frame.  

Mixing it with Fitzpatrick, Kaymer and Willett (wins this week at the Dunhill, don't-you-know?) reeks of quality and after a huge amount of birdies during the week, only a final hole bogey cost him a chance in a play-off. That hasn't been his only decent finish and after a season that included a win at the Czech and high finishes at the better quality events - 12th in Germany and Le Vaudreuill as well as the Rolex, 3rd in Kazakhstan - he looks primed for a third win at this level. Fahbring is a player that needs to be caught at the top of his form, and virtually assured of a place on the European Tour will be relaxed as he tries and is likely to improve dramatically on last seasons poor effort here, especially as he doesn't have to travel far from his biggest cheque of the year. I respect two-time season winner Gros but he will be looking over his shoulder to protect his ranking and the likes of consistent Fahbring can bridge that gap at the top. Given I would rather look at decent recent form over course form, I went slightly shorter about the Swede and (head-in-hands man) he will be played as the only other bet this week.