Challenge de Espana

Subscribe

Hugues Joannes - 1 point each-way @ 55-1 (Bet365)

Rhys Davies - 1 point each-way @ 50-1 (Skybet) 

Alfreda Garcia-Heredia - 0.50 points each-way @ 150-1 (Power) 125-1 okay 

The history of the Fred Olsen suggests that it may be a fruitless task to look deep into the field this week. Having been won by some very classy players, many on top form, this does look a week to concentrate on the top third of the market, and with the two best players missing this week (Gouveia and Gros) this is a real chance for someone, possibly already in the top-15, to virtually cement a place on the main Tour next season.

I'm taking the view that whilst respect needs to be shown to in-form JB Hansen at the head of affairs, the 12-1 is madness given he has never won at this level and he doesn't quite fit the mini-links discovered to Turkey and Brittany.

Going back too far in history on this tour seems to be a mistake and just looking at the last couple of years, especially 2014, many of the top-10 in Lampert's winning year also appear on the leaderboards at either of those listed venues.

Top of the list therefore is/was Rhys Davies, big at 50-1 this morning and respectable now at 33-1 (I ranked him a 28/30 chance). If we were to take a trip back in time to 2009/2010 when he won twice at this level and beat Oosthuizen fairly and squarely in Morocco, we'd be stunned that this 30-year-old was now struggling at the second level. Given he was invited to assist at the Ryder Cup in order to gain experience for his inevitable future appearance, languishing outside the top-180 on the RTD for a couple of seasons would have seemed impossible. However, these things happen to even the highest quality golfers (Westwood, Stenson, Matteo to name but three) and it may not be stretching the impossible to say that a missed two-footer to get into a play-off when defending that Trophee Hassan was the catalyst for the downfall.

Still, you can't languish on old news and much better has been seen from the Welshman over the past 18-months or so with a runner-up alongside a couple of places before this years slight shock win in Turkey. Since then, Davies says he has relaxed a tad and his consistency has improved. Whilst his finishes do not leap out of the page, a run of 21/30/43/20 is fine in context of this field but it was that closing nine-birdie 65 last week in Slovakia that sealed the deal for this week.

In last week's preview, there was mention of a possible link to Brittany and that continues here with Davies boasting a 2nd around that stunning course, whilst of course the win here in 2009 sits nicely alongside form at the other significant venues. Take that final round from five days ago alongside a great putter on his day, and there looks to be a recipe for success round a course that often boasts a winner in the 20-under catagory.

I looked hard at one of last week's selections, 2010 victor Alvero Velasco again but his price is just too short despite his claims whilst at bigger prices both Sarasti and Foos held some appeal. Instead, of the larger prices only Alfredo Garcia-Heredia made any appeal.

It makes perfect sense to include at least one home player and this lightly-raced 34 -year-old fits the bill. Multiple winner on lesser Tours including this season, he comes to play at this level only sporadically and has some decent enough form 'off the card' including a T4 at his home Open in 2008, the same year he ran up in this event (different course). Since then, his results have always been best shown in Spain with a record of 25/17/5 in this event from 2010-2013 and a win at Q-School (first stage) followed by a 9th in Madrid in April where he led after the first round with a 64, after which he commented   “I’ve played really well the last three years, and the results have just not been what I expected, but I have kept working on my game. I have struggled a little bit with my putting, and those weeks when you need to play well I haven’t had my best moments, but I have kept trying.'' Simply, amongst the quieter home players, he works for me.

Until that price went up about Davies, the best bet looked to be the birdie-machine that is Hugues Joannes. Bounding onto this level with a runner-up here last year (18-under) he never quite matched that level but still gained a couple of further top-15s and a 4th at the significant Brittany event before 5th at the lucrative finale.. Due to a couple of wins on the Algarve Tour this year (competing against the brilliant Gouveia) he was made one of only two wagers for the RTO but results haven't been anything like good enough and it is about time he delivered. This seems the perfect course to do just that and given the improvement some of these younger players make after an outing at a favoured course, and on a track that favours aggressive players, this realy is his final chance to show a modicum of the ability that ranked him 35th last year in his first full season at this level.  

Yachi Dar.