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Outright Picks - European Challenge Tour

Tipster: Jumbo

Odds: Outright

 
 
GANT Open
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Jacob Glennemo - 0.50 points each-way @ 110-1 (Corals) 100-1 (Bet365)

Christian Gloet - 0.50 points each-way @ 100-1 (Unibet) 90-1 (Bet365) 

Tapio Pulkkanen - 0.25 points each-way @ 200-1 (Corals) 150-1 (Skybet) 

 

Have to admit that despite not having my favourite player, Ricardo Gouveia, in the field, this has been one of the more interesting events to research.

Clearly the Race To Oman leader has a firm schedule mapped out, including various resting weeks, and it seems to have worked thus far this season. If the remainder of the season continues in similar vein he will have the title wrapped up before his potential appearance in his home Open, where you can all see his rise to stardom! Before that, the small matter of wrapping up this week's GANT Open, a stunning course in a beautiful part of the world....

With the Portugese star out bookmakers have three players disputing favouritism at around 20-1. All have a chance on recent form but I am not sure they will all enjoy the short, tricky track, where accuracy is much favoured over brute strength, and one that presents a totally different test from many on Tour and in previous runnings of this event.

It is easy to make a case also for recent Madeira winner, Roope Kakko, given his win on a similar track and a 3rd at the Nejati (often a pointer to form on tricky courses), but surely his price has now gone and he is no value. As such, two-time winner this year, Rhys Davies, is the name that sticks out at the top of the market and I am not sure he isn't value at the 30-1 put up by one firm.

Davies needs little introduction to most golf pundits and he looks on the way to regaining his main Tour card proving that hard work can pay off. Whether he returns to the form that saw him marked as a certain Ryder Cup player is in doubt, but this track will suit a player with huge form in Morocco and who is reknowned for accuracy and putting prowess. I am in a quandry as to whether to play the Welshman this week but have erred on the negative side, despite a strong leaning to make him a bet, and I couldn't argue with anyone who backs him.

Although there is no Challenge Tour form around Aura, there is plenty of Nordic Tour course form, and of most interest are the runnings here over the last couple of years. I'll freely admit that the level of form on that progressive Tour is a slight step down from here but it is a huge learning platform for many and for every failure (Jesper Kennegaard) there is always a success (stand up Mr Broberg), and my regular reader (Hi Mum) will recall that I trust Scandanavian players to boost their form as they arrive back at this part of Europe.

When originally looking at this event, I felt there may a mini-coup available on Tapio Pulkkanen and was disappointed with an opening show of 50-1. However, other oddsmakers clearly have either not done their homework, or do not rate this season's Nordic form, for which the 25-year-old is clear at the top of the Nordic Golf League after four wins in his last ten starts. Included in this excellent run of form are wins at the recent Made In Denmark qualifying event, plus significantly a win at the Finnish Open. The Trilby-hatted player may well be simply 'on a run', and his form at this level is quite attrocious thus far, but confidence is a wonderful thing and surely his third victory of the season, in front of a home crowd, sets him up nicely for a challenge here this week, especially at the 150/200 on offer.

Sticking with that tour as a form-guide, I have to include Christian Gloet in the plan at near treble figures.

Having caught the eye earlier in the season I backed him in Slovakia where he predictably missed the cut, but everything points to a good run here this week. It may be slightly lazy, but everything that was written back then remains true. Gloet hasn't been lauded in any article I can see but he may be soon. Recently turning professional after a decent enough amateur career, he won his first pro title on the Ecco/Nordic Tour before finishing 10th in the rankings and making the final stages of Q-school (12th after four rounds, 29th and level with Gouveia after 5). This season started quite brightly, handily placed before Madeira was abandoned, whilst a late double-bogey cost him a weekend play in Kenya. However, the 25-year-old seems to be an extremely ambitious individual and talks about working hard towards his goals and he has a very progressive profile, improving from just missing cuts to top-45s at the tough Nejati and Hydro to a flying 5th in Germany, the result of a bogey-free joint course record 63 on the final day. Since then, the ambitious youngster has mixed missed-cuts with a couple of mid-20 finishes but they are again eye-catching, with an opening 67 in France and a mid-event 65/67 in Northern Ireland last week. Okay, secret's out then, that first title? It was the 2014 GANT Open, held here at Aura GC, and won with three rounds of 66/69/68. Convinced yet? 

Whilst Gloet was finishing a decent season, way ahead at the top of the Nordic League for that year was Jacob Glennemo. The improving Swede finished 4th on his first season on the Nordic Tour before a rookie season at this level was highlighted with top-25s in Belgium and India whilst making cuts in Norway, Finland and Switzerland give credence to that 'location factor'. Clearly using that experience, the 27-year-old completed dominated on his return to the lower level, winning three times and compiling 13 further top-10s in just 23 outings. Clearly we could have a player going either way, but his progressive efforts since suggest that a win, or a top-5, is not very far away.

Looking purely at what we have in front of us, 16th in the opening Kenya Open, Glennemo lay T5 after two rounds in Madrid and was top-10 after three rounds of the Turkish Airlines in May. Progress since is encouraging with three further top-20s and an opening 66 (T5) last week at Glagorm Castle, and the return to a favoured location can only be a boon. In a field that lacks strength in depth, he is the best bet of week at 100-1, twice the price he should be on form, let alone with that massive location advantage. 

I struggled leaving out Jens Fahbring, a player I really like when coming to this part of the world, whilst outsider, old man Jocke Rask, can be considered at 300-1 given his form here in 2013 (low rounds final two days) and his overall efforts in Scandanavia, but this is all about the progressive youngsters - Geronimo Glennemo!