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Outright Picks - European Challenge Tour

Tipster: Jumbo

Odds: Outright

 
 
Karnten Golf Open
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Ricardo Gouveia - 1.5 points each-way @ 18-1 (Corals)

Filippo Bergamaschi - 0.25 points each-way @ 250-1 (Bet365)

Francois Calmels - 0.75 points each-way @ 140-1 (Bet365) (NON_RUNNER) 

 

Heartbreak as morning gamble Calmels doesn't confirm his entry and is declared a non-runner. It is worth keeping his qualifications under wraps as there is an equally simple course next week at the D&D but I doubt we'll see 140-1 about a 40-1 chance again so breathe slowly and move on.

In terms of a selection, very few of the other runners scream 'value' although there are many differences in the oddsmakers views. Julien Guerrier, for example, ranges from 50-1 to 100-1 whilst Pontus Widegren can be backed as high as 150-1, yet is only 50-1 with one firm and both have claims at the bigger prices.  

It will be good to see if Skybet do any in-running betting as this event could change dramatically over the weekend, offering very low scores round this 6900-yard par-71 course with wide fairways, spoken as a putting contest by many last season.

At the front of the market downgraded Kevin Phelan could prove to be a class above after recent top-3 finishes in Joburg and Morocco. He has shown up in all the accuracy stats, something that will give him an advantage over a few of the lesser players and he may be a huge price even at 14-1, but I just feel as though ante-post OOM bet, Ricardo Gouveia, is ready to burst onto the scene and he has to be backed at an 'overs' 18-1 with one firm.

The Portugese star has been superb since winning his maiden in Rome last October, finishing out of the top-12 only once and that in higher grade at the Portugal Masters. He finished 47th on the 2014 OOM after just nine starts and proved his class by winning a stage of the Q-school before just missing out in the finale. In between the two seasons, the 23-year-old has won on his home Tour beating small but quality fields and has taken that on to lie 5th in the current rankings despite not getting his head in front yet. That cannot be long in coming judged on form figures of 8/2/12, that runner-up being at the low-scoring Madrid event and he simply looks all class. His consistency means that he doesn't float in-and-out of contention like many of his rivals, he is proven to act on all tracks, maybe crucially did not play in brutal Denmark last week (conditions that often knock a player's swing for a while) and he is confidently expected to win at least once - perhaps he is this year's three-time winner, ready to follow on from Broberg, Koepka, Lampert and Hebert.

There are cases to be made for a few on this 'hot putters' track but I thought the 250-1 about Italian Begamaschi was worth a shekel based on last year's podium finish. Also aged 23, he probably has his best years in front of him and it is a stretch if looking at this years three missed-cuts. However, his best results last year were at the low-scoring events - 6th in Belgium (winning score -18), 8th at Le Vaudreuil (-16) and here when 3rd, shooting 17-under and just two off Lampert's winninng score. He hadn't done much in the season until then, although admittedly the top-20 reads better than figures this year, but he may be inspired by the return to the venue of his best score and there are few tears at the price.

There may be further selections if the in-running markets are put up but until then I've got the right hump over Calmels.