Kazakhstan Open

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Sam Walker- 1 point each-way @ 33-1 (General)

Ryan Evans - 0.50 points each-way @ 80-1 (Sportingbet)

Robert Coles - 0.50 points each-way @ 80-1 (Sportingbet)

Duncan Stewart - 0.25 points each-way @ 150-1 (Skybet) 

Players arrive at the well-established Kazakhstan Open knowing that a really good week here will lift them well into the one of the fourty-five qualification places for the Grand Final in just under two months time. A top finish here, with the largest pot of the season, can transform any season and given the course demands some length (7300+ yards) and accuracy, there is no doubt that confidence will need to be at a peak to return the outright victor.

In that sense, I think this is the right week to totally rule out the classy pair of Ricardo Gouveia and Ryan Fox. I say 'totally' but, of course, they could return very worthy victors given their outstanding seasons thus far. However, Gouveia's first missed-cut for an age at Brittany was totally unexpected, whilst the Kiwi stood with a great chance after three rounds but fell away rather flatly and they may not perform for different reasons - one chasing the title, one defending, and as they are already both certain to be playing top-flight golf next year....

Related to last weeks event on the coastal track,it was interesting to see current 8th-ranked player Jamie McLeary say  'I decided not to play at the Cordon Golf Open last week because I thought it might be windy and I’d have to hit low shots, whereas here you need to flight it in at the pins, so I played the D+D REAL Czech Masters on The European Tour instead and took a week off last week.

I'm feeling fresh, my game is in good shape, and I’ve had this tournament as my focus not just for the last month but really ever since the start of the year.' Perhaps not playing at the Cordon Open was a correct decision, but equally most winners of this event have been in good form leading up to it, so perhaps it is one to keep in the back of the mind, rather than play to.

The event itself flits between the Zhailjau course and this week's track, the Nurtau GC, and recent winners round here have been of high class - Tommy Fleetwood won here in 2011, whilst decent prospect Johan Carlsson took the prize the last time it was played around here. Last season, the very much in-form Sam Hutsby saw off a leaderboard that included eventual number one, Andrew Johnston, subsequent Wentworth winner 'Ben' An and Matthew Fitzpatrick amongst other main Tour players and, judged on the assembled field, the eventual winner will deserve his almost certain promotion to the top.

Finding the winner seems to revolve around a few factors. I believe you need to be very much in-form, and in the right mindset to show skills with all aspects of the game. When Carlsson won, he commented on his use of the Driver and knowing when not to take it, despite his obvious advantage in length. This 'game plan' will be key to nabbing the prize and, at the prices, there look to be a handful of interest.

The top few in the market look about right although one glaring factor in past winners has been their good showing at the Rolex (the Scottish and Slovakian events are also prominent), no surprise given that event also carries prestige as well as hosting only the best the Tour can offer. In that respect, Gouveia looks decent, whilst Gary Boyd, 4th there and subsequently 13th at the Czech, probably makes more appeal. At the same price though and clearly a bet at anything over 30-1 is Sam Walker, who clearly loves this place having posted a 5th and 12th in four outings, whilst he has made his last eight cuts culminating in 11th at the Rolex and 4th in France last week. I love his last three Sunday rounds of 67/68/66, and he looks back to the form that saw him qualify for the European Tour. Interestingly, as well as that Rolex effort the 36-year-old boasts a win at the possibly significant Scottish Hydro.

Add both Ryan Evans and Robert Coles, who look completely wrong at 80-1 with one firm, although they are at completely different stages of their careers.

The improving Evans first came to notice when 42nd at the Alfred Dunhill and 30th in the Portugal Masters back in 2014 when in his fledgling professional career but judged on his first full season he will be winning a few. Third in an early-season Karnten event (one of my favourite 'comparison' tracks), that was the second event in a run of thirteen cuts made, results including 32nd at the Lyoness, top-20 in Spain and France, 25th in Northern Ireland and crucially 4th at the Rolex when in with every chance overnight. The top-60 in the Czech wasn't a stunning result but looks out of context with the rest, and inside the top-30 in the R2O, he needs a decent week to cement his place among the elite.

The vastly more experienced Coles hasn't won since 2009, but does look back to something like his best after injury and, having found his game only in June, it may be he can eke out that crucial top-5 being just couple of places behind Evans in the rankings. Three sporadic missed-cuts are noted but they are surrounded by very useful finishes - top-20 at the Nejati, Aegean and at the Rolex, whilst that runner-up at the Hydro looks decent form this week. A 4-over back-9 at the Cordon last week really hurt him and disguises an otherwise good tournament, and at a course where he has recorded finishes of 14/29 he is old ad wise enough to be a challenger.

I have just left out Steven Jeppesen only because he looks just wrong at the prices (I wanted 60-1), and instead will take a punt with Scot Duncan Stewart, 150-1 with one firm.

In a short career at this level, Stewart has not matched an excellent first season. Back in 2013, gaining an end of year ranking of 20th he ranked four top-10s including at the Hydro (oooh) and here, when runner-up to Carlsson and finishing level with Tyrrell Hatton. After an average spell on the main Tour, he looked as if his season may take off after a top-5 at Le Vaudreuil but he has done nothing until last week's closing 25th at the Cordon. Clearly, he likes coastal courses but I just felt that those final two rounds, lifting him from 38th at the cut-mark, ma inspire a repeat of that 2nd place here. He needs no prompting - at 83rd in the ranking he needs something to happen and if anywhere, this is likely to be of the more obvious places - his last chance saloon.