Since the event moved to the Karen course the two winners may have been progressive but both came into the event in differing form. Jordi Garcia Pinto won his second start of the season after a moderate opener but Jake Roos came in off the back of decent finishes in the South African co-sanctioned events. Given that link, current third favourite Justin Walters must have huge claims this week, recording a trio of mid-20 finishes through that same series of events before a 50th in Morocco, decent enough in this field. 

At just 20-1 however the Joburg resident must be left alone, along with the very promising duo of Max Orrin and Ricardo Gouveia both of whom will challenge for many this year but are just too short this week despite their obvious talent. I do have small interest in the latter having backed him along with Hugues Joannes for this years Order Of Merit this year (betting available with Skybet) and the youngster's progress will be monitored closely having already broken his maiden in Italy last year and going on to win on his home Tour in the close-season.

I am however going to take a chance with the Belgian Joannes this week, simply as I believe he should be closer in the betting to those other two. It may be that he has been blown off course by that farce that was Madeira but he was extremely progressive last season with three top-5s including at the seasonal finale in Dubai. Results in Spain and that finale suggest he can make plenty of birdies and also grind a result, something that may be required around here. The 26-year-old made hay during the Winter, gagging up in two decent enough events (again on that Algarve tour) and has had enough time to recover from being blown around.

It is a shame that both Merrick Bremner and Jacques Blaauw opted to play in Zimbabwe but that gives the event a more open feel and the other two picks may just be able to outplay their odds.

Pontus Widegren finished 5th here last year and it's a slight surprise that he isn't shorter than the 66-1 on offer. The improving 24-year-old progressed last season adding five further top-10s and a handful of top-20s to his record, eventually finishing 28th in the OOM. Although only 70th in the recent Trophee Hassan after a horror final round, the Swede shot an excellent 3rd round 69, including a best-of-the-day 6-under 30 on the back-nine. That is seriously good golf on a possibly similar tricky course, and anything approaching that form is easily good enough to compete here.

Finally, experienced Englishman Simon Griffiths was worth a poke at triple-figures. Recently plying his trade on the Asian Tour, he certainly could not be called progressive but often sticks in a top-15 or top-20 to remind us he is still about. I believe his last win was a couple of seasons ago on the same Algarve Tour as mentioned previously and he does seem to play his best when in England but this looked an event that could be narrowed to 50-odd players and given that, he wasn't a 100-1 shot.