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Ricardo Gouveia - 4 points win @ 9-1 (bet365)

Callum Shinkwin - 1 point each-way @ 50-1 (bet365) 

With only a few of events left before the 'cut', many of these players will be desperate of a good show at the prestigious Rolex Trophy in order to secure a top-45 place on the rankings and a chance at securing a European Tour card at the Grand Final. Whetever happens, this could be the last chance for a few of these to rise up the table and avoid the worldwide travel that face those desperate for points in a month or so.

Having been held at the Geneva Golf Club since 1991, the event carries a history worthy of the course and has a roll-call to match. Of the current crop of players, Marc Warren, Alex Noren, Robert Dinwiddie and Julien Quesne have all won here, whilst recently Kris Broberg made this his third win of his inaugural season, and 'Ben' An took this as as his first victory after a progressive season, and subsequently finds himself top-10 on the R2D after a brilliant win at Wentworth.

Is there anything here of that standard? Blinkin' right there is.

My regular reader (Mum resigned, it's the dog now) will know of my admiration for Portugese star Ricardo Gouveia, and nothing he has done has relinquished confidence in the R2O bet, or that he will go on to win at the highest level.

When looking at the calendar earlier this year, the Rolex was the event that stood out for the two-time Challenge Tour winner and his closing third in Northern Ireland adds more fuel to the argument that he is simply the best this tour has to offer. An excellent amateur over in the States, he won on his 8th start in his maiden season (2014) before winning a second-stage of Q-school and just missing out on a card at Catalunya. Since then, a couple of easy wins during the off-season on the Jamega (Algarve) Tour paved the way to one of the most consistent seasons of any player in the last few years. From 13 starts, he has incredibly posted only one win, seven top-10s and two further top-20s, but it is the manner of these efforts that show his class.

In his entire season, Gouveia has posted just three weekend rounds of 72, with 17 rounds in the 60s. Maybe significantlly he finished 6th at Karnten, an event in which An and Broberg (different course) both posted top-3 finishes and has no fear from the front or from off the pace. The 24-year-old's win at Hartl came on a mature tree-lined course, exactly what he faces this week, and he said in recent interview that he enjoys courses like these as they give him 'a line'. One of the best wedge players on show, it may all just depend on the behaviour of his putter but given a 480-yard par-5, and a wedge to most to the other holes, this could be a lot of fun. If needing to add any more, Gouveia ranked 13th in his second ever event, the Swiss Challenge, whilst that same event a year later saw him improve to a top-10. Clear at the top of the rankings, a win here will almost certainly secure the title and given recent comments that 'the goal at the end of the year is to finish first in the Road to Oman' I was expecting quotes nearer 7-1/15-2. Short he may appear to be at 9-1 but if half these other competitors had half his ability......

Finding an alternative is tough. Respect of course to the excellent young Australian, Ryan Fox, but he has no experience in this part of the world, whilst you would expect this course to suit the likes of Rhys Davies, but after two recent missed-cuts and a best of 12th round here, he can be left alone. Jamie McLeary, massively in form after two recent top-5 finishes is probably too short given his poor record here and his lack of genuine improvement and unquestionably the one that stands out at the prices is young English improver Callum Shinkwin.

I was given the heads-up about Shinkwin from a local member before he won the English Amateur in 2013 (from Matt Fitzpatrick) and whilst his progress has been steady rather than spectacular, the same could have been said of last year's victor. Tied-second at one of the Q-school second stages in 2013, he ran up five top-10s in his first season including a brilliant 3rd place finish here last year (69/69/66/69) before ranking 34th at the end of the season. Progress has continued this year with an excellent 13th at the Nordea the highlight, and surrounded by a top-60 at the Lyoness and top-10 at Madeira in higher grade, whilst back at this level he has a 3rd in the Turkish and a top-30 at the Hydro. Key to the Moor Park golfer is his huge driving leading to the shorter approach clubs, and whilst that may not seem to be ideal round here, it didnt stop the big-driving An here twelve months ago, a then maiden of similar eye-catching standard.

Shinkwin knows he has that advantage of length and will need to keep it on the fairway in order to give himself wedges to many of these greens, but he certainly managed it here last year and will continue to improve every season. I'm not sure he carries the class of the favourite, but he can certainly match most of the players higher up in the betting, will need a decent run to ensure his place in that vital 45, and in a field of just 42 players, he is a good 15 points overpriced.

I don't normally expect, but this week I do. Ricardo Go-veia.