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Outright Picks - European Challenge Tour

Tipster: Jumbo

Odds: Outright

 
 
Scottish Hydro Challenge
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Dave Coupland - 0.75 points each-way @ 160-1 (Bet365)


Jamie Mcleary - 0.75 points @ 55-1 (Bet365)


The last two winners of the Hydro Challenge have been in the upper echelons of this level, with both Andrew Johnston and Brooks Koepka going on to further their careers. There should not be anybody that needs telling what Koepka has gone on to do and whilst 'Beef' has not kicked on after an opening 3rd at the Alfred Dunhill, this event does throw up a class element on the leaderboard and shock results should hopefully not occur that often.

The weather will play a huge part in this week's event as whilst recent conditions have been cold and wet, conditions are set fair for the few days ahead, a combination that could and should lead to very penal rough for those whose games are not at their peak. Keopka's win in 2013 came via a hugely impressive 62/68 weekend with strong wind and rain, whilst last year saw little of that squally rain - so unpredictable but exactly what Links golf is all about.

I am sure at some point soon the promising Ricardo Gouveia will not be outright favourite in this class but his overall profile does suggest that his quality may earn him his sixth top-10 this year. However, whilst this is excellent news for those on for the OOM, his lack of a win is worrying and this course debut doesn't seem the type of place at which his game will flourish. Still, we will take another leaderboard finish as the Tour reaches more favoured venues.

Last week's winner, Sebastian Gros, who won by a staggering six shots at Saint Omer, makes his debut here and whilst the efforts at Denmark and on the main tour in Spain suggest conditions will be fine, 25-1 is awfully short for a young player to back up his first win. Just outside Gros, McGee, Dantorp and Walker all have obvious claims but none make appeal at the prices.

When pricing this, I had Jamie McLeary at around 30 and 5th or 6th favourite so was very pleased to see a quote of 50/55-1 this morning. 

Runner-up to Robert Dinwiddie here in 2007, he went one better a couple of years later winning in sometimes brutal conditions, and by two shots from top-class Edoardo Molinari. The Scot hasn't made much progress on the main Tour but on each occasion he has played a full Challenge Tour season he has finished in the top echelons, most notably when 15th in 2013 with five top-10s and a runner-up at the lucrative finale. Last season saw McLeary make 13 cuts without pulling up any trees and after an attempt at the second stage of Q-school has made progress back at this level, with a 20th in Madrid, top-10 at the D&D and a closing 24th in Switzerland before a late birdie saw off the challenge of Taco Remkes for the KPMG Trophy earlier this month. As is the way, a missed-cut after a win is always forgivable especially at somewhere as unique as Saint-Omer  and with local knowledge, experience and form, he really should be a lot shorter this week.

Fellow Scottish-golf fan Coupland is either this year's coup-de-grace or flop-de-flop. Although the Englishman is nearly 30 years-old (considered the 'peak' for a golfer) he has not had much experience on this Tour and thus does not show a lot of form on first viewing. Six missed-cuts litter the formlines but the two better/best results are very clear, and the 11th at the hugely better-class Lyoness Open is the stand-out from anyone in this week's Hydro field. 

A back-nine 32 paved the way for a quality 67 in Austria and whilst sometimes it pays to overlook a closing round when out of contention, there is no fluke about the round if looking at some hidden form. 

An improving amateur, Coupland made the semi-finals of the 2009 English Amateur in the same year that he was top-10 at the St Andrews, and then followed up with some excellent efforts in minor Links events including a victory at the 2010 Tillman Trophy played in often brutal conditions. He then took a sponsored year out in Australia with great results which peaked at the Australian Amateur Strokeplay when shooting a final round 65 and losing a play-off to the recent US Open top-5 Cameron Smith, himself a huge prospect.   

The boost that the overseas results gave was evident throughout the next couple of seasons, peaking in 2013 with a couple of one-off pro-am wins and a victory and runner-up on the Europro Tour, eventually finishing 4th on the OOM. His sole victory came in Scotland, which bodes well for this week, despite it not being on the clearly-favoured old-style Links and he has yet to hit his 2014 CT results, which included three top-10s in Turkey, Belgium and Brittany.

Although yet to reach the consistent levels of 2014, Coupland seems to be happy to learn and improve his game and the hope is that back in Scotland, on a Links course, will be enough encouragement to reach it. If he does, it's all round mine for a party.