Gouveia's consistency is simply sensational and shines above almost every other player on the Tour, and now that he has found his putting confidence I see no reason why he cannot go on and land at least one more quick win before taking his main Tour card, perhaps this week at the Penati course.  

Ignore his missed-cut here last year as that was (incredibly) Gouveia's first effort at this level (awful start but a seven-birdie barrage on day two to miss the cut by one), and look at what he has done since. Two wins in 2014 (including the 2nd QF stage of Q-school) before multiple wins on his home Jamega Tour to warm up for a second season that has already seen him record one win, one runner-up and four further top-10s from nine starts. Given his ability with the irons, on a course that requires players to hit the right part of huge greens, and he is a rightful hot favourite, especially now that the majority of the in-form players have chosen to miss this event. I won't back many at this price this year but have to at least take a saver as he is just too good, knows where he wants to be and has the game to back it up.

For some reason or other, I started discussing this event over a week ago (you know who you are), and the first thing that came up was the possible link to the Cotes d'Armour Bretagne, where Slovakia winner McArthur and placed Farr, Velasco and Coles managed to finish top-10 at Brittany. Perhaps it's that the wind got up at both, and also that both courses require accuracy down shaped fairways and to undulating greens, but there seems some sort of correlation.

To that end, listing possible bets was fairly simple! 

Andrew McArthur takes a place in Scotland this week, slightly surprising as the defending champion stands 11th in the R2O and is in decent form whilst Oli Farr is now on the main Tour - see, simple.

There is also a possibility that the events in Denmark and at the Hydro are relevant, given both were windy and veteran Robert Coles again hits the mark. The 42-year-old has bounced back from injury with a steady run of form that has seen him record 19/2/12, the first two in tricky conditions. Given his best placings in the past two years have come here, Brittany, Oman and the related D&D in the Czech, his claims are crystal clear. The Gidea Park resident (2 miles from me but anyway, I've never been invited round for tea) currently lies in 16th place in the rankings and will surely be a factor this week. But. There is always a but. Coles is now rated as a 22-1 shot and whilst that isn't horrendous given the overall quality of the field, he doesn't have anything like the improvement of a Gouveia, so is reluctantly left out.

The Spaniard has been plying his trade on the main Tour this season with little success, and perhaps the difference in the two levels is illustrated with his best-of-the-year 17th when dropped down a level at the Czech Challenge. Third at the halfway stage, his final position wasn't helped with a double-bogey/bogey start to Sunday but it still demonstrates he has some of the ability that won twice in 2010. Last season saw the 34-year-old finish 12th in his home Open at a very difficult Girona track, another top-20 at the Czech, as well as that 4th here and at Kazakhstan and the Brittany top-10. In a field that lacks strength in depth, a further visit to the lower level after a reasonable effort in Austria may see another improved confidence-building effort and his price looks far larger than it should be.