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Outright Picks - European Challenge Tour

Tipster: Jumbo

Odds: Outright

 
 
Swiss Challenge
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Nino Bertasio - 0.50 points each-way @ 100-1 advised (bet365) 80-1 fine

Niccolo Quinterelli - 0.50 points each-way @ 80-1 (General)

Matteo Delpodio - 0.50 points each-way @ 66-1 (Bet365)

Jeff Lucquin - 0.20 points each-way @ 250-1 (Skybet) 

A very tough last couple of weeks, with big-priced selections threatening to do something special after a round or two, but ultimately falling away. Even worse was the actual result of the D&D won by Jens Fahbring, the only tip given in 2014 at 100-1! Still, that can't be changed now so onwards...


The excellent Golf Sempachersee holds the Swiss Challenge for the sixth year in succession and is rewarded with a decent field in what could be a fairly tough challenge given recent rain. Whatever the weather, some clear trends have developed and narrowing the filed to a manageable amount of players looks fairly simple.

It is worth looking back to the 2014 preview (why not do that last week?) in which I wrote:

Recent winners Benjamin Hebert and Victor Riu both showed promise on the Tour before winning their maidens here in 2011 and 2013 respectively, whilst Gary Stal made this his second win in a month in 2012. Clearly the angle is the French or mainland European players who have shown definite ability on the third-level events and indeed both Hebert and Riu had done so on the Alps Tour, the former winning and Riu being runner-up twice. The younger Stal had been thrown into the deep end after a brilliant amateur career and this year both he and last year's Swiss Challenge winner have made eye-catching progress on the main Tour this year whilst Hebert was to use the win as a springboard to two further successes including the prestigious Rolex Trophy.

Edouard Espana spoke a couple of years ago as to why the French seem to do so well here and commented that perhaps it is because they can see the Alps and there is 'something in the air' but whatever way I look at it, the decent players on that Tour seem to have every advantage. To the above we can add that last year's winner Pierre Relecom had won the Swiss amateur championship and that he had, of course, decent enough form on the Alps tour before making the cut on the main Tour - at Crans! Not hard therefore to conclude the way to go this week.

The early advised 100-1 on Nino Bertasio is now hopefully a distant memory, but he can give us something to remember by taking through almost perfect qualifications and landing a touch. A top class amateur at home, he won his first professional event on the EPD Tour before mixing qualification for the Asia Tour with Alps events and a few at this level. Although he failed with those efforts to gain entry to the Far East, he ranked 8th here in 2012 (his stand-out effort for that season) before improving dramatically on the Alps tour from 2013-2014. 

Last season was the Italian's best ever professional year with a couple of wins (back-to-back) and six further top-5 finishes before coming here again, surely expecting another 'best' season. At 27-years of age, Nino should be approaching his peak and, judged on recent efforts, a true challenge for his first win at 'level two' cannot be far off.  Ranking 14th at the very tough Made In Denmark event should have been a lot better but for the final round 82, whilst last week at the D&D, he fought back from a very poor third round (13th to 48th) to finish with a best-of-the-round 65 and back to a top-15 placing. In his fledgling career, Bertasio ranked top-40 on the main tour Crans event in 2010 whilst that poor final round here in 2011 dropped him from 9th overnight to 52nd. Clearly his final figures are not matching his talent but it cannot be long in happening and 100-1 underestimated him for sure.

Obvious favourite and personal fancy to go all-the-way Ricardo Gouveia is incredibly short this week at around 8-1. I have no doubt as to the Portugese player's talent and that he will win top-class events but it remains that he hasn't won this year at this level despite appearing in the top-10 every week. Form figures of 12/2/8/6/9 scream quality, and he made the top-10 last week after a back injury, all pointing to a player you wouldn't want to lay. Nevertheless, given I backed Kris Broberg at 14-1 after he had won twice in a year and in perfect conditions, I cannot be backing the favourite at these prices.

Continuing the theme set out at the start, I have to back Niccolo Quinterelli again, although we have to take much shorter than the 400-1 of last week. I noted that Fahbring was backed at the D&D as I felt he was ready to come to form as the Tour reached Scandinavia and it may be that the same players approach their peaks each year in the same fashion. In this case, Quinterelli is a winner (again on the Alps tour) before progressing at this level, improving to 37th on the OOM in 2014 thanks to the runner-up finish at this event. In the end, a six-footer was between him and a play-off and after showing up nicely for three rounds last week - a third-round 76 knocked all hopes - he may take a lot of positive thoughts to the venue of his best-ever finish. Coming into the event last year after a similar run of form (top-30 in Czech), four rounds of 69 or better in 2014 suggest he can contend here with conditions in his favour.

I was going to leave this as two players but Matteo DelPodio keeps calling and is therefore added. There is little to add to his preview for the Madrid event :

The Italian is one of those 'thirty-somethings' that should be ready to progress through the ranks. A decent record in the third-tier class preceded an initial 41st in the 2012 OOM, a season on the main Tour, and finally improving to 32nd last season back at this level. Whilst not winning, he has however shown a predilection for going low as when showing up well at the Fred Olsen, Swiss Challenge, Kazakhstan and Shankai. 

We can now add the relevant factor that he is a multiple winner on the Alps Tour and has continued to progress with recent formlines of 24/22/33, including a low 64 for the final round in Austria. Figures around here are good, with one top-10 the most recent and decent, whilst he was top-20 in the Rolex last season, another pointer to his play in Switzerland. 

To further the claim that this location is one that feels 'home' to several players, take a look at the Crans event on the European Tour. Both Thomas Bjorn and Miguel Angel Legend Jimenez return here every year to put up excellent efforts and whilst I have no intention of saying Jeff Lucquin is within hailing distance of these legends of the game, a return to the country where he once beat a certain Rory McIlroy, may see a bounce back to form.

I'm really not sure what the Jeff/Jean-Francois thing is about, perhaps it's a Siddikur thing (is he? isn't he?) but whilst it has taken a long time to get over injury, Lucquin does have talent and, as the (admittedly younger) Joost Luiten has shown, it is possible to get back to playing at the right level. It hasn't been a great time for the Frenchman but he is showing a small return to lower levels of form, playing respectably on the Alps Tour and may just get enough of a confidence boost back in Switzerland to give a run at a large price. 5th after three rounds of this event in 2011 (finished 11th) is about the only piece of form apart from small pickings but it cannot be a coincidence that adding that to the historic play-off win over the current world number one, means that his best efforts are in Switzerland. There's no expectation factor on his part, and certainly not mine, but if there is ever a time...... 

This week's 'regret' is Steven Brown, a player in very fine form and a proven winner on a couple of third-tier Tours but had he been a Stephan and continental, he may very well have made the cut! 

Vamos Bertasio!