Le Vaudreuil Golf Challenge

Subscribe

Brinson Paolini - 1 point e/way @ 66-1 (365)

Jack Senior - 1 point e/way @ 55-1 (365) 

Alvaro Velasco - 0.50 points e/way @ 110-1 (365) 

Immediate thought is that American Brinson Paolini looks wrong in context of course form (winner on debut in 2013) and recent form, where he chased winner Rhys Davies throughout. One missed 12-foot birdie putt (Rhys holed a 10-foot par putt straight after) possibly stopped a greater challenge and he returns to what is obviously a favoured venue.

On a course that looks very short at 6700 yards, many players will be playing into the greens with wedges. However, as a few have pointed out over the years, the fairways are tree-lined and tight and many of the greens sit on a higher level. Pins are often placed in 'Sunday' positions meaning that playing to the centre of the green is key. Perhaps that is why there seems a relation of results from the two runnings of this event to the Swiss, Rolex and Azerbahjan and Kazhakstan, with many of the two leaderboards showing decent results at at least one of these venues.

If that is the case, then the likes of Arendell, McLeary, Huizing and Im are of real interest along with my initial fancy Jens Fahbring.

The Swede looks relatively easy to read to be honest and I was disappointed to miss his win at the Czech Challenge. However, this seems another great chance for him to get close to last years runner-up finish here, and after a recent run of 21/12/40/35 he looks ready to strike, especially when considering his two wins have come off similar streaks (40/35/1 and 20/3/1). However, I really wanted more than 30-1 and whilst it would have been a bookmakers error to do so, I cannot play at the price even if chomping at the bit.

Instead, take Jack Senior, improving 27-year-old (just! he was born on 18/07) to gain his second win of the year and make Ricardo Gouveia regret missing the last two weeks (why, man? why?).

The Englishman has high-quality amateur form with a stand-out defeat of Jordan Spieth in the quarter-finals of the 2011 US Amateur, losing 3&2 to the same star in the Walker Cup a few days later before teaming up with subsequent success-story Andy Sullivan to beat Russel Henley and partner, and then Uihlein and English. No need to say what that Walker Cup produced, and Senior could be going the same way judged on his improvement over the last 18-months. Winner twice on the Alps Tour in 2012, a Q-school stage at Frilford and then twice on the EuroPro Tour from just a handful if starts, he has improved at this level from a ranking of 67th in 2014 (two top-10s) to a current ranking of 5th after a play-off win in the Scottish Hydro. A poor effort after a win is orgiveable and he was better last week at the Fred Olsen when an unusually poor third round disguised his great play for the first two days after which he stood tied-second. Expevt him to relish the tight fairways and the emphasis on accuracy and to keep going forwards. 

Alvaro Velasco is not in particularly good form at first glance but has been playing better than results, often being higher up the board during events before a poor nine-hole stretch. He is a proven winner at this level, has form at the related events and at a slightly higher grade , a top-10 here in 2013 and shouldn't be bigger than some non-winners.