**prices advised on Twitter today 

With historical winning scores of between 17 and 22-under, players will look to exploit the par-5s although with a couple of over 600-yards it will be the par4 efforts that ultimately count. The designers comment that the easiest greens are on the hardest holes and vice-versa and from the video coverage it's clear they can place the pins in very tough places, on the edges of these slopey greens and accuracy with approach shots is key - short-side yourself and pars will be hard-won.

Whilst previous winners seem to have come into the event in relatively poor form, they do have snippets of clues in events just behind their most recent and surely as these fields get classier by the year, confidence in iron play and putting will owt.

The oddsmakers (or copy and pasters) find it hard to split the front lot, with ten players between 25-1 and 30-1 and it's too hard to pick from there. Obviously I'd like Jordan Smith to perform well and rise up from 5th on the OOM and it is very encouraging that when playing below his best he continues to rise up the board late in events. He will enjoy this week's course, with it's fairly wide fairways and the chance to attack and he was close to a play at 25-1.

Instead I've left the top lot alone and happily going along with my 'over the cliff' player for 2016, Toby Tree.

Regular readers will know I rate Tree higher than the bookmakers and will be backing him almost every week at 50-1+. I shan't bore you with the same spiel each week but his form figures and play earlier in the year speak for themselves. Although recent efforts look average, he missed a good few 10-footers in Turkey and then again couldn't hole a thing in Italy when hitting the pin twice and spinning off the green. These events wind up a golfer but he has time to regroup and comes here with his long game in fine shape and plenty of confidence. He will be challenging very strongly soon enough and I'll continue to bash my head against a wall until it caves in. The wall or head, whichever comes first.

Chilean Nico Geyger first caught the eye when leading going into the final round last year. Although ultimately the pressure of trying to win his maiden proved too much, that had to prove valuable experience eventually running up a string of very acceptable finishes before ranking 68th at the end of 2015. Given that included a rather unfortunate visa experience before the Kazakhstan Open, that is a perfectly acceptable start to a career at this level and it was a matter of kick-on or fade away. 

The 29-year-old has since gone on to win twice on his home Tour, the latter victory being from the very promising youngster Pep Angles (shown superbly this year and is a certain future winner) and whilst that will be of fair, if not stunning, standard he looks very progressive this year.  Standout form is clearly the 5th in Turkey with three rounds in the 60s and one other of 70 but he has also shown bursts of birdies in most rounds including a 65 second-round effort last time in Italy. 

He is clearly prone to lapses and throws in dropped shots but he should be learning fast and on a course that rewards aggression, has to be coming here full of confidence. I hoped for 50-1+ and was very pleased to see the price this morning.

Although Jerome Lando Casanova has not won since graduating from the Alps Tour, he has shown the odd effort that suggests he is clearly good enough to be challenging here and there. Highlights of his CT career so far are a fast-finishing 2nd to Benjamin Hebert in the 2014 season finale to secure his card, a meritorious effort given he opened with a 78, ten shots off the lead, and a couple of top5s in Turkey and Northern Ireland. A decent amateur who hasn't quite hit the heights at this level, form is sporadic but has taken a progressive look recently, making cuts in four of five events and trending in the right direction with a seasonal best of 10th in Italy last time.

15th here on his first effort in 2013, he missed the cut a year later but at least made the effort in the second round after an appalling 76 opener. It does look as though he needs to start tournaments well and can then stay right in contention so tomorrows first round will be interesting. I won't pretend he is nearly as talented as the likes of Tree but looks worth the chance to continue recent form.

Final selection is another maiden, American Connor Arendell, who first caught the eye in 2014 when 3rd at shortened Catalunya and then followed this up with a runner-up at Le Vaudreuil, renown as one of the classier events for the year. That he could then back that up with 3rd at the same French venue suggested he was well worth a watch and it's just been about when to back him. Making the cut in three main tour events was a decent end to 2015 and maybe relevant given the 13th at the Czech Masters, and he seems to be back in form judged on that 15th in Italy last time out.

Another for whom there is plenty ahead, he may be about to go on one of those runs that return a few dollars, as he did when making 10/11 cuts last season and at three figures, is worth the risk that it is this week.