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Outright Picks - European Challenge Tour

Tipster: Jumbo

Odds: Outright

 
 
Made in Denmark Challenge
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Mads Soegaard 0.50 points e/way @ 66-1 (Skybet)

Jacob Glennemo 0.50 points e/way @ 100-1 (general) 

 

Slight change of plan as this column continues for the next five events before being taken over by another writer. 

I always look foward to events staged in Denmark, the courses often providing hugely difficult tests and whether on the main tour, or at this level, the players are almost unanimous in their praise for the tracks as well as the challenge they offer.

Although this is only the second event since the return of the 'Made In Denmark' to the Challenge Tour, past history suggests this could be a brute, weather depending, and could easily repeat the 2015 running, of which winner Max Orrin commented it was played in the 'toughest conditions I have ever played in'.

This week's course may be four-hundred yards shorter than that of the Royal Club but the last time it hosted an event at this level winner Sebastien Delagrange shot 2-under after winning St.Omer in 20-under the card. That is a confusing stat given the totals but,, in both, he took a flyer in the easier conditions before grinding it out and the eventual scores may disguise the similarity of track - narrow in places and unpredictable wind.

Warm favourite this week at around 11-1 is our Race To Oman ante-post bet, Jordan Smith. Clear at the top, one more victory and a few top-10s should do the job and it is his impressive profile throughout his tournaments that catches the eye. Even when seemingly unable to win, he finds a way to make his way up the board and again did the job last week, coming from 10th after three rounds to finish 3rd, despite being under pressure from his main R2O rivals throughout. Indeed, his average round placing through his events reads 46/44/32/19 and although I am of the view this isn't his ideal event, this is well worth looking at as he makes his way through the main tour next season.

It was a tough event to determine as all the obvious ones are very short in the betting. The likes of Farr and Bjork can't be backed at the price, but Duncan Stewart, winner in difficult Madrid and 4th at St Omer was only just left out at around 40-1.

First up is the improving home player Mads Soegaard. Previously ranked the top junior in Denmark, he was judged top rookie on his home Ecco Tour before an excellent first full season at this level, finishing 22nd on the R2O, sadly finishing poorly in Kazakhstan to lose by a single shot and all backed up by three top-20s. These are promising efforts enough but they are probably ranked just behind his two efforts in Denmark - 12th at this level after a poor 79 final round (went into Sunday just two off the lead), and a better 6th at Himmerland on the main tour.

Things haven't gone right for the promising Dane but he has been fighting an injury, and whilst three early-season mid-30 finishes are something to build on, he speaks encouragingly about the 40th in last week's effort at Spey Valley. He has some lower league form when beating a certain Jordan Smith, lives a short ride away from this week's course and definitely has something there that hasn't quite been tapped yet. Given his proven ability in his homeland, he was worth a poke at the stand-out 66-1.

Only one other bet in Swede Jacob Glennemo, ironically Player Of The Year in the same season that Mads achieved his award. Winner of many junior events at home, he took the 2014 Nordic Tour apart, winning twice and recording nine top-5s. Significantly, one of those victories was at the afore-mentioned Himmerland and his overall form shows that he is capable of mixing it and beating the likes of Lasse Jensen and Jens Fahbring in the right location, players that would be a lot shorter than three-figures here this week.

On the Challenge Tour, Glennemo does seem to mix good and bad, recording top-20s in better class tournaments before a host of missed-cuts. His life-time formcard shows that he is well capable of matching or improving that latest 7th in St.Omer and if that old form correlation is right, 100-1 could look big this weekend.