|
 |
 |
| Home|PGA|European|Champions|LPGA|WGC|Others |
|
|
|
|
|
| Home|PGA|European|Champions|LPGA|WGC|Others |
|
| |
|
|
Romain Langasque - 2 points win @ 13-1 (Bet365) Toby Tree - 1 point each-way @ 50-1 (Power) Philipp Mejow - 0.75 points each-way @ 80-1 (Power) Benjamin Rusch - 0.75 points win and place @ 125-1/22-1 (Unibet) 100-1 (Bet365) Total stake 7 points This event had me slightly stumped to be honest. I initially wanted to be with recent course form from the Progolf tour and Antoine Schwartz was on my radar for the last month or so. With stunning course figures over the two configurations (Red Sea sponsor consecutive events with the Egyptian Classic over a slightly longer course), he is looking to back up his victory here in January and impressive form figures since. However, on reflection and despite two further top five finishes in his last three outings, his form at this level is not good at all. Granted, he clearly likes it here but I wanted more than the general 40-1 and will have to suffer it should he prove me wrong. Despite the apparent conflict between the two grades, I am happy enough to take around 75-1 about German Philipp Mejow, who won the 'second' event in 2015 before winning the OOM. Form at this grade is average so far, but he sandwiched his second place in the Progolf Tour Championship with an excellent top-40 in the European Open at Bad Griesbach (final round 66) and a win at Las Colinas at the second stage of qualifying for the main tour, opening with 64 and closing with an equally impressive 66. His warm up events in 2016 haven't exactly screamed 'winner' but this is just months after those efforts, he clearly has talent and a return to the venue that started his best ever season can only be a plus. There is plenty of precedent for a player of the same nationality coming on to win on this tour - Moritz Lampert the most recent, with three wins in 'Beef's year 2014. I suppose if you like this sort of player then Benjamin Rusch has to go on the short-list. The 26-year-old Swiss was runner-up here to Mejow in 2015 before winning three times including the finale, at which he beat Mejow by five shots and finishing just behind in the rankings. At the higher level, he has slightly better form, recording a couple of top-25s from two runs in 2015 and made the cut in the full field Italian Open the year before before finishing 20th at a second stage of q-school. If Mejow is a bet at 75-1, this fella has to be added at around 100 and I thank a fellow golf mug, sorry form student, for the nod. Improving Englishman Toby Tree is one of the top rated players in my book, ceratinly of those without course form. He carried my quid at the KPMG last season after impressing with rounds of 63 and 68 at the top level Tshwane in 2015, and whilst he just didn't justify support in 8th showed immense promise in the subsequent top-30 in Denmark and top-20 in Switzerland. He looks to have returned in even better shape judged on the 14th place finish at this year's Tshawne (3rd round 65 left him in 5th place going into Sunday) and knowing he can play well if the going gets tough, as it may on this coastal track, he looks well worth support at 50-1. With the inevitable windy conditions, it is no surprise that David Law, multiple winner of lower grade events at home in Scotland, is fancied. With Paul Lawrie as mentor, he looks to have a big future and with very decent course form looks sure to go well. I just favoured others at the prices. Up top, Dylan Frittelli comes here in peak form. Although he hasn't won since the 2013 Karnten Open when we were thankfully on, his retrun to form over the last few months has impressed. Beaten in a play-off at the Australian PGA comes surrounded by top-20s in three good events at home, to be then followed by four top-10s in five starts, including 4th in Kenya and a closing runner-up last weekend in Zimbabwe. He does find winning difficult but he is knocking at the door very loudly and a win would certainly not surprise even if 12-1 looks short. Having backed Christiaan Bezuidenhout (okay Sam?) last week, I was disappointed with the final round from him as he closed to within one of the lead before a couple of double-bogeys took him out of the game, and he also made late errors when (again carrying the money) 4th in Kenya. He has the game to win plenty of events but I need to see more at the business end. Okay, in the past I have backed the likes of Broberg and Gouveia at apparent 'short' prices and am not scared to do so again if the player justifies it - and my word, Romian Langasque does just that. All the talk in the golfing world is about the 'other' amateur champion, Bryson Dechambeau, and quite right too - he is absolutely awesome and his results prove it whilst he is being backed at less than 30-1 this week in a top-class fielduy6. However, I am not sure that they shouldn't be hyping the Frenchman to the same degree. A top-class amateur in all ranks, Langasque easily beat Grant Forrest at tough Carnoustie to win the Amateur Championship but this is just the start of his career and he will be leaving that form way behind. Since then the ultra-confident 20-year-old has thrashed Dechambeau in the Georgia Cup (a match between the respective trophy holders) and impressed hugely in his debut at Augusta in The Masters. One of only two amateurs to make the weekend (you know the other), his final round 68 lifted him from the depths to 38th, and was easily enough to beat the score recorded by far more experienced Augusta stalwarts such as Ian Poulter, Martin Kaymer, Adam Scott et al, indeed it was the second-best score of the day. His confidence is quite infectious, almost insisting he will be top-15 on the Race To Oman before going on to the main tour and eventually full-time on the PGA. This will be his first look at the Egyptian track but he has stated he has been practising his putting on the 'tricky' greens but he has struck 68 blows round one of the best tracks in the world and nobody else in this field can currently come within shooting distance of that ability. The worry about the actual victory in the order of merit comes via the thought that he will receive many invitations to play on the main Tour, but the question is whether he is another Broberg or Koepka, indeed another Gouveia, all with massive improvement to come still and all for whom similar prices were happily taken. Is he? You better believe it. |
