Challenge de Espana

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Sam Hutsby 1.5 points each-way @ 50-1 (Skybet/Corals)

Hughes Joannes 0.50 points each-way @ 200-1 (365)

Hughes Joannes - 1.5 points Top-10 @ 16-1 (365) 

In similar vein to last season, a few of the top-ranked players have opted to miss this island venue and whilst it is again understandable why we have a short priced favourite, he really is easy to oppose at the price.

Although there is no telling what Pep Angles may eventually produce, a price as low as 9-1 does no justice at all to much of the field and so despite impressive efforts so far in Spain (top-20 at Valderrama and 3rd at the Madrid) he can be passed over.

Always helpful looking through previous years' articles and conveniently so, as 2015 saw the CT betting season change for the good with the win of 50-1 Rhys Davies. That was an error by one of the books and they haven't been quite as accommodating this year. There was mention of a correlation between previous winners here and efforts in Turkey (mostly Gloria) and at Brittany and that stood the test with the Welshman and that is reason enough to take that route taken this week.

There was one huge error in the early prices when 365 put up 100-1 about Matt Wallace, five-time winner on the Alps Tour and miles clear in that particular OOM. He has valued the short experience on the main Tour and in a relatively weak field was never going to start at that price. I missed that three-figure price and new offers of around 33-50 make much less appeal although he does talk the talk and is well worth a watch.

Sticking with the formula, there look to be a few players who fit the profile, with the likes of John Hahn (top-10 Turkey and at Cordon) and Alessandro Tadini (twice top-5 in Brittany and top-20 Turkey) standing out with decent current form. The list also included some real 'highlighted' stars but they have mysteriously decided not to travel this week so instead I have gone for the biggest price in the group and the pin lands on Sam Hutsby.

The Englishman should be approaching the said maturity as a golfer (29-30 years of age) and has been quietly progressive in his career to date. 2013 saw a best-of-the-season 4th in significant Brittany alongside a top-10 in Madrid and top-20 round here, whilst the following season saw a stellar 6th place ranking thanks to a win in Kazakhstan, four further top-10s  and another top-20 over c&d. 

It would be fair to call his first full European Tour season a learning curve and whilst he finished 190th on the R2D he made the cut in 25% of 30-odd events. The new season has seen more consistency rather than brilliance and he currently ranks 68th after making 7/10 cuts without doing that much. However, we know he can play the game at this level and I wouldn't be totally disappointed with mid-20 and mid-30 finishes given the difference between those and a top-10 is often minuscule.  Back at a venue he clearly likes, he can start putting together the four low rounds that will be needed, rather than following impressive rounds of low-mid 60s with ones in the mid-70s. There looks to be a progressive profile recently with rounds of 67/69/66 in Belgium, 62 in Scotland, and last week's final 69 (reads very well against the field average on a tricky day) and he can take advantage of a real opportunity to launch himself up the rankings. 

It would be easy to put up a few 40-1 shots and almost certainly get a couple of places but instead I am going over the cliff one last time with Hugues Joannes, a player that ranks second in my all-time lost-money list on this tour.

The Belgian has been on my radar for a couple of years now after mixing with and beating the likes of Ricardo Gouveia on the mini Algarve Tour but he has never really produced. However, being a birdie machine, he should come to the fore again over a low-scoring track and he follows at least part of the formula having been runner-up round here in 2014 and recording a 4th and 9th at what is now called the Cordon in Brittany. He again won over the Summer months in good company (Jordan Smith and Ricardo Santos to name but two) and surely is far better than the seven missed-cuts from last eight starts. The figures are not horrendous with a worst round or two of 74 and given his obvious talent, 200-1 round a track he can play (64 final round 2014) is surely far too big.