Welcome to the Challenge Tour 2016, and whilst last year saw the emergence of such talent as Gouveia, Gros and of course, the eventual top 2 in the Sunshine Tour order of merit Haydn Porteous and Brandon Stone, this year has the potential to throw up equally impressive winners.

With proven winners such as Andrea Pavan mixing it with much of the 'class of '15' in the hugely promising Max Orrin, Dominic Foos and Clement Sordet, and many graduates from the third division, this could be the toughest season yet for punters. Still, we plough on with confidence. Of sorts.

The OOM market was suspended a couple of days ago when it was realised that the likes of Orrin had been declared for this rather than the main tour, and that is a bind for me personally as I have backed the rising star Jordan Smith in that market. Progressing through the ranks at all levels, he has been superb on the recent Algarve tour, holding his own with classy Ricardo Santos, a player who has plenty of form when playing at base. His record of 5 runs, won 3, runner-up twice, is as good as you can get, and if the form doesn't hold with some pundits do remind them that last year's ante-post pick Ricardo Gouveia used the very same Tour to tune up his game and go on to prove numero uno. Form off the card is often worth little, but is sometimes worth a hell of a lot.

Looking at the list of players, this year's Race To Oman could be the tightest yet, but in terms of the Kenya Open, there are definite clues that point to the likely winner.

Although appearing obvious, players from South Africa have a terrific record here. Location is an factor but it looks as though recent outings are more of a pointer, many of them playing in the higher class co-sanctioned events as a level of warm-up.

In 2010 (Robert Dinwiddie's year, runs in the Hero this week - biorhythms?) two Springboks finished in the top-10 including Jake Roos (T5) , both having made at least one cut in the trio of big home events. Roos went on to win the 2014 running of this event, although at a different venue, after a top-20 in the Tshwane.  A year later and the country saw a one-two in the shape of Bothma (made cut Joburg Open)and Ferreira, with a certain Branden Grace back in 3rd, whilst Ferreira again made the frame a year later alongside an improving Justin Walters. 

Moving to Karen GC in 2011 saw only Dylan Frittelli make the top-10 but they have dominated the last couple with the aforementioned victory of Roos preceding a hugely talented duo of Porteous and Stone, who seemed to rehearse their recent Investec Cup play-off and who have finally justified the hype.

Simple it may be, but I am very happy to continue this theme with a couple of young South African's with heaps of potential.

First up has to be Christian Bezhuidenhout, a player who caused a slight controversy when found guilty of using a banned substance during the  2015 Amateur. Found guilty more of ignorance than cheating and thus receiving a lesser ban, his actual play deserves the utmost respect. Top-ranked amateur in a country chock-full of talent (beat Porteous in his home stroke-play championship) , the ban could have held him back but he has worked to get his game and reputation back on track and, having won a couple of lower league professional events, took a huge stride forward when winning the Big Easy mini-tour last Autumn. That pales into nothing when seeing his victory at the Sunshine Tour Q-school held over five rounds, and a runner-up in the classy SA Open (in front of the likes of Grace) and 22nd at Joburg. Slightly outclassed and maybe out-experienced (?) at the recent Investec finale, the fact he was able to take part in such a selective event shows the future he has and the sky really is the limit for the youngster, Brian.

So, South African, young, improving, long and straight (perfect for here) with very good recent form in home co-sanctioned events, there is little against the bet apart from the price. And I am happy enough with the offer from the firms.

At 26 years of age, Michael Palmer may give his rival a few years but he also gave him a thrashing in the second of his three IGT wins in 2015. The development Tour will have it's average players of course but clearly both of these have progressed hugely in the few months since and, judged on his best efforts, Palmer may still have been under-estimated. Just failing to qualify for the Joburg and Tshwane events after making the cut in the SA Open, his subsequent top-20 at the Dimension Data and 13th at the Eye PGA (Van Zyl/Burmester play-off) are perfectly acceptable. The Oklahoma State graduate is clearly something of an unheralded talent when compared with some of the players getting far more publicity and could well have been underestimated by the bookmakers this week, even at what may at first seem a shortish price.

I was very tempted to have another go with Hugues Joannes at three figures, one of last year's 'follows' and a winner once again off the card in the Algarve, but despite showing promise in a few events last year, his advantage may be on windy tracks, whilst rain-softened courses also seem to suit this flag hunter. Up front, cases can easily be made for the in-form Frittelli and Blaauw but they do tend to throw away winning chances and there may just be someone hungrier for victory, whilst proven winners such as Foos and especially the excellent Oliver Farr are surely better than their price this week. The latter, in particular, could easily forget a poor run back on the stage on which he finished 10th on the RTO in 2014 with a win and four top-10s.

 

Go, Rambo!