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JORDAN SMITH 2.5 points each-way @ 20-1 (bet365) DYLAN FRITTELLI - 1.5 point each-way @ 66-1 (bet365) NOW 50-1 (general)
Universally described as a top class venue with excellent sponsors, the Slovakia Challenge offers a strange mix of challenging course with strong birdie opportunities, meaning that any player off their game will certainly struggle, but those that are confident with their approach play will find the right part of these huge greens and be offered plenty of chances to go low. Of course, the stand-out hole here is the 783-yard par-6, totally unique at this level, and certainly a contributor to a good 25% of the 17-under and 21-under scores that proved victorious.
As befits the billing, both leaderboards thus far have produced top-class prospects with both Andrew Johnston and Brandon Stone the highlights of the inaugural running, whilst Ricardo Gouveia (winner of the Race To Oman), winner Borja Virto Astudillo and Alexander Bjork have certainly not disgraced themselves in their fledgling careers at the top level.
There are so many similarities between last years successful ante-post bet Gouveia and this season's wager on Jordan Smith that it becomes bizarre at times. Both outstanding iron players with confident putting, they were multiple winners on their respective pre-season Algarve tours and have proven very consistent on their first full Challenge Tour season. It cannot be coincidence that I backed the Portuguese star last year when he narrowly missed out on the victory and come into this event having expected to see the Englishman nearer that starting price of 11-1 than his current 20-1.
Mentioned last week was the way Smith has that rare ability to get everything from his round and that he improves his third-to-fourth round positions almost at will. From an average of 32nd to 19th overnight will always help rack up the Euros, and he again proved that last week, rising from 28th to 20th and shovelling a few more shekels on his total, now 13,000 clear. He will need another victory to cement his place at the top and this looks a perfect opportunity.
Huge prospect Smith has followed his early win in Egypt with a significant runner-up at the Czech Challenge, sponsored also by D+D Real and an event that has correlative form over the years, and a third place at Spey Valley, both events that required rounds of mid-60s to compete. Last week's Danish course was never going to entirely suit his attacking play and he will be far more at home here where he can attack pins. I was happy to take any 16-1 available so am going straight in at the 20-1 on offer. I feel he should be outright favourite.
South African Dylan Frittelli has only won once, Austria in 2013 (oioi), but after a long period in the wilderness, has had a cracking end to 2015 and beginning to the current season. Runner-up at the Australian PGA and top finishes on the South African swing read well and it was a matter of taking it back to this level. Appreciating tjose four missed-cuts in a row, Spey wasn't horendous with rounds of 72/70 but his effort in finishing 3rd last week in Denmark was very eye-catching on a track that shouldn't have suited that well. A big hitter that can go low when in the mood, he was just passed over last week at what looked a huge 80-1 (despite reservations about the course) but back here I expected to see 40-1. the 66-1 is massive.
Whilst here, may I suggest you read the article on Jurrian Van Der Vaart, a fascinating insight into the struggles as a pro golfer https://www.europeantour.com/challengetour/season=2016/tournamentid=2016742/news/newsid=300792.html
Be lucky. |