Turkish Airlines Challenge

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Moritz Lampert - 1.5 point each-way @ 40-1 (advised) (now 50-1/11-1 Unibet)

Toby Tree - 1 point win 66-1, 1 point top-5 13-1 (Unibet)

William Harrold - 1 point win 100-1, 1 point top-5 18-1 (Unibet)

**I will be interested how you get on with Unibet. If you are unable to, please DM  @thirtysixholes** 

The players seem to have truly embraced the Turkish resort in Balek, with plenty openly commenting on how stunning the area is. 

Despite a change from the 'Old' to the 'New' course, conditions at the Gloria GC are expected to be very similar to last years event with accuracy and approach shots the key. Naturally putting will be a huge asset and with 2015 winner Rhys Davies giving us huge clues as to the type of player required, some sort of short-list can be obtained.

We all know Rhys by now. Quality driving and iron play and a very confident putting display are always on show when he is on his game and having won at quality tracks such as Vale, Tecina (twice) and of course Dar Es Salam there is a feeling that this is who we are looking for, rather than grinder Oliver Farr, winner at the National in tough conditions and a score of 12 shots higher than that of the Welshman.

It is hard top argue with the front of the market although Romain Langaque seems a tad short after a poor second-half display in Spain last week. He is clearly the class of this league but still has to do the job and, until then, quotes of under 20-1 can be ignored. Likewise, Lorenzo Gagli, available at 80-1 last week after a great effort the previous week, is now a best of 28-1 despite never winning any pro event - his double-bogey when challenging late last week is sign enough to give him the slip for win purposes though he looks sure to gain another top-10 following last season's 2nd place finish at the 'other' course.

I had a couple of players ahead of the rest and was very pleased to see a quote of 40-1 about a quality player in Moritz Lampert, although now that has been superceded by a quote of 50-1 win only (11-1 place). Unable to do much in his first effort at this level, he made the most of invitations in 2014 following his maiden victory on the EPD Tour in Morocco (by seven shots), improving his form from 29th in Kenya through to 5th at the National in Turkey, and eventually the debut CT win at Karnten (beating a certain Ben An). 

What followed must almost have seemed a dream as after an unsurprising missed-cut, he went 1/2/12/mc/1 gaining his full card by the end of the first week in August and finishing 4th on the end-of-year rankings, a grand effort given he only came back for the final two lucrative events when it really didn't matter much at all.

The German 23-year-old did very little on his first full year on the main Tour but says he worked very hard during the close-season and his results have been progressive and a hint that he is soon coming back to the winner's enclosure. A 7-shot victory in Agadir in February (the same margin as his afore-mentioned maiden win) had to give him confidence back at this level and recent results of 28/19 show enough to think that he may be able to repeat that form-run of two years ago and gain another top-5 at a place he clearly enjoys. We know he is a winner in attitude and ability and he makes more appeal than some less-proven players at shorter prices.

Hopefully you follow the Twitter feed (@thirtysixholes) and would have seen the message to back Joel Girrbach at 100-1. I won't put him up here as I am not sure the current 70-1 gives much away but a brief explanation. Only 21, the highly-thought-of Swiss player has been progressive on the ProGolf Tour, finishing 6th at the end-of-2015 Tour Championship, his sixth top-10 of the season. It was, however, that tenacious effort in Egypt that has caught the eye. Rocketing up from 46th after round one to the top-5, he never left the leaders' side and did not show any weakness in the final group on Sunday chasing the very talented Jordan Smith the whole way. An early eagle just after a first-hole bogey paved the way for a third consecutive round in the 60s (shot 69, the same as the leader) and the way he kept with him was an indication of real talent. We do have to overlook considerable inexperience having had only ten starts on the CT in the last two seasons, but that best-of-2015 16th on the Old Course here last year stands out alongside that most impressive runner-up showing.

The final bets were a quandary. I really want to be with Toby Tree and am glad that one firm has put up 66-1 as the 50-1 was just not enough to play. There is little to add to what I wrote at the Red Sea Challenge but he continues to show enough to think he is a winner-in-waiting and has confided that he prefers these quality tracks to the pitch-and-putt. His Tshwane efforts over the past couple of seasons read very well (many are taking South African form into the higher grade Moroccan event this week) and, like many of the promising youngsters knows the short-comings of his game. He has been working on sharpening certain aspects since Egypt and he is expected to eventually do well at higher level.

Finally, prices matter and I cannot resist the three-figure price about another Englishman, William Harrold. Given the last two winners, we know that home players do well over in Balek and the 2014 Belgian Challenge Open winner fits the bill. Winner of the end-of-season event on the 2012 MENA tour, he improved a couple of seasons later winning twice at PGA Europro level and after the first win obtained an invitation to the Dubai Desert Classic where he was not disgraced in only just missing the cut. Any experience at the highest level is positive and it was no real shock to see him improve from 19th at difficult Tecina to that maiden victory on the way to making 14/18 cuts and ranking 45th at the end of year.

Unable to duplicate that victory he had one stand-out performance on way to a season ranking of 61, and conveniently that was 3rd last season here at Gloria where he never left third place throughout the final three rounds. I liked the progressive profile of the now 28-year-old (Happy Birthday, Bill) with 38th in Kenya followed by a two-eagle, one hole-in-one 11th in Egypt (would have been top5 but for a late double-bogey) and can forgive last week's missed-cut back at a venue at which he has decent form. I certainly think quotes of 66-1 are far nearer the mark.