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Cisco World Matchplay
Played on the long and demanding Wentworth course and in less than ideal British weather, this is even more of a slog than the WGC Matchplay in February. With the format of four seeds and eight unseeded players, the benefit of being seeded and thus not playing until the quarter-finals are enormous. In the last six years, all the winners have been seeded and only two of those twelve finalists were unseeded. This week's seeds are Colin Montgomerie (1), Ernie Els (2), Lee Westwood (3) and Vijay Singh (4).
This is rather too much of an obstacle for an upset to occur, in fact under normal conditions in May when the course hosts the Volvo PGA Championship, it is an event that produces very high quality winners. The winner will come from these four players, which is unfortunate as I would have liked to back Thomas Bjorn @ 16/1 with Victor Chandler, even e/w at 1/3 odds for the first two players. But he will have played close to 36 holes before facing Lee Westwood in the semi-final. With the weather forecast typically gloomy, even the Great Dane will not be able to raise his game and physique for such a battle.
The two seeds to oppose are Ernie Els and Vijay Singh. Els has a superb record in this event, but that ended in 1998 when he lost his first match and he did so again last year. Having not played for over a month, he looks a vulnerable opponent for Thomas Bjorn should he beat Retief Goosen on Thursday. If not, then Westwood will surely account for him. The second to oppose is Vijay who was very disappointing in Germany last week, not just in his game but in his whole demeanor. Whether he can raise his game to defeat Clarke or Faldo on Friday is questionable, but he certainly did not look a winner last week.
The outright play this week is on Colin Montgomerie 5/1 @ DAS. He has won two of the last three Volvo PGA Championships on this course and won this event in style last year. Last week, I predicted his problems were more motivation than technique and it was proved correct even though he was denied a chance to win on Sunday. With him proclaiming that he was 'hitting the ball better than I have done for months' at the weekend, and remember this is Monty, when he is talking up his game, we take notice, it doesn't happen too often! He lives near to the course if another indication of how much he likes Wentworth is needed. The final should be between Monty and Westwood, the 'dream final' for us Brits, and everything is stacked in Monty's favor this week.
Going to go with my prediction of a Monty-Westwood final prediction and playing it as a prop:
Westwood & Montgomerie to be finalists 7/1 @ Ladbrokes
1st round plays:
Thomas Bjorn to beat Retief Goosen -138 @ Sportingbet
[2 units] [same odds @ Paddy Power]
Top-five in three of his last five events [injured in one] and with a good
matchplay record at the WGC & Dunhill, Bjorn is
being widely tipped to make the 2nd round
Adam Scott to beat Sergio Garcia +180 @ Olympic
Scott has struggled on the PGA
Tour, but not so in Europe. At this price he could easily upset Sergio who will
not enjoy being the more experienced player
Padraig Harrington to beat Bob May -143 @ DAS
Successive 3rd place finishes for
Harrington, plus impressive in this event last year [he defeated Els], in the
Ryder Cup and in the Dunhill Cup, he will be too strong for May who lacks
matchplay experience
Expect the Clarke-Faldo match to be close, with Clarke just edging it, but untouchable at odds available.
1st round update: 1-2 and -2.76 units
Bjorn was strongly tipped for this tournament, but he had a shocker. Goosen
admitted to not striking the ball very well, so it was there for the Dane to win
At least the other two picks
were competitive: Harrington rode May's first nine hole burst [out in just 30]
to cover the next twenty-two holes in ten-under-par and win 6&5, while in
the other Scott's inexperience was the deciding factor, he was 3-up after 14
holes, only to lose the last four holes of the morning round and hand the
initiative back to Garcia. He eventually lost 2&1.
2nd round plays:
This is the round in which being seeded is a huge advantage and so there is little value around. Goosen is not playing that well, but there are too many question marks over Els to take odds of -200 and higher, however two plays are worth taking, even if only for entertainment purposes with such a small field:
Lee Westwood to beat Sergio Garcia -150 @ Sportingbet
[2 units] [same odds @ Bowmans]
Garcia was handed victory today, he was an unimpressive one-under-par for 35
holes and will surely struggle after a long and cold day. Westwood played in
this event two years and inflicted heavy defeats on Appleby and Els before being
edged out by Tiger. On current, past form and the extra's days rest, another
heavy defeat for his opponent looks likely
Colin Montgomerie to beat Padraig Harrington
-150 @ Paddy Power
Harrington's performance today has
caused a large difference of opinion amongst the bookmakers [Easybets have Monty
-227], but Harrington was struggling with sore calfs at the end of today's round
and with the weather set to continue tomorrow, a repeat of last year's victory
by Monty over the exhausted Irishman looks on the cards
2nd round update: 2-0 and +3.00 units
It certainly was a day in which being seeded was a huge advantage: all four won with ease. Monty completed the first 18 holes in just 61, a tournament record, and was a further four-under-par when he beat Harrington 5&3. Westwood completed the first round in 64 and was a further four-under-par when he beat Garcia 2&1 in a high quality match. Still looking good for the outright play and the 7/1 shot at a Monty-Westwood final.
That prop would be a good reason to hedge and play Singh and Els tomorrow, but Monty looks totally unbeatable at the moment - and this is with a set of clubs that he used for the first time today - while Els look unconvincing in a low-quality match with Goosen. Both had to scramble a lot, especially in the closing stages, and against a less intimidated opponent, Els could very easily have lost a very good lead on the last nine holes.
There may be some more lines available tonight, but he odds on Monty defeating Singh are very short and are not worth considering given the outright and prop plays on him, but I find it very strange that Westwood is the dog in his semi-final. It was only two years ago that Westwood handed Els a heavy defeat in the 2nd round and a repeat looks a lot more likely than not. One semi-final play:
Lee Westwood to beat Ernie Els +110 @ Bowmans [2 units]
More lines for the semi-finals have appeared and there is a 3% scalp with Montgomerie -133 @ DAS and Singh +150 @ Victor Chandler. At these odds, a play on Montgomerie is worthwhile, but with two open plays on him already then it is not necessary. On the other match, Westwood can now be found +110 @ Olympic & Sportodds.
Semi-Final update: 1-0-0 and +2.20 units
Forever the bridesmaid, questions have been
raised about Els' temperament over the past year or two and more will be after
today. Two up with three to play, Westwood won the 16th well, but then Els
missed putts of 5 feet and then 2 feet to lose the next two and the match 
Have already said that Els looked shaky down the stretch against Goosen and he
was again. It meant that with Monty an easy winner over Singh, the 7/1 prop on a
Westwood/Monty final is a winner 
The semis were delayed for six and a half
hours so they were not completed until today and so the final is also
unfinished. Currently Monty, the outright pick @ 5/1, is two down to Westwood
having shot 65 to Westwood's 63. The final 18 will be played tomorrow, but
whatever the result it has already been a very profitable week 
Final update: 5-2-0 and +9.46 units
Profitable week on the Matchplay with the high point being the 7/1 prop on a Monty-Westwood final. In a hazardous form of golf for betting, was happy to record some good wins and only one player, Thomas Bjorn, failed to perform as expected.
Update on outright plays: 0-1-0 and -1.00 units
Just the one play this week and he played the
best golf of the week. Unfortunately he didn't win, Monty lost on the 2nd extra
playoff hole to a birdie, but when your selections play that well, you'll end
the season in profit. So no complaints here
