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Dunhill Cup
A second week of matchplay golf in Europe, though this week it is team medal
matchplay. Basically 16 teams of three drawn into four round-robin groups with
only the winner proceeding to the semi-finals. Each match is played over the
full 18 holes with the player with the lowest score deemed the winner. Interesting
variation on the team matchplay theme, but of late the event has been afflicted
by a lack of top-class players willing to represent their country. The US team
consists of Tom Lehman, John Daly and Larry Mize 
That said, St Andrews in October is not for the faint-hearted! But this will be
the last year that the current format will be used, though no plans have been
announced for the future of the event. A change of month would be best!
The tournament has a history of shock results on individual matches - Zhang and Ghei has beaten Monty, McGinley has beaten Els and Luna has beaten Woods - though usually the best teams come to the fore, even if the individual matches are somewhat treacherous to predict. The team with the best recent history is South Africa whose team of Els, Goosen and Frost has been the same for years and they have installed as the favorites for this event, but having only been seeded 4th, they have a very difficult group [New Zealand, Ireland & France] and may struggle to qualify for the finals.
Instead, the best value team this week is Argentina. The triumvirate of Romero, Cabrera and Coceres may prefer warmer conditions, but are all particularly good wind players. All three are in very good form at the moment and look very good to make the semi-final against a weak USA team, a Japan team so weak it contains Isao Aoki and an Australian team of O'Hern, Leaney and O'Malley. Very much an Australian 'C' team, but they will present the greatest challenge to the Three Amigos though it would be greater on a parkland course for these players.
The markets for best individual concentrate on points won which is a bit of a lottery as progressing to the final would involve two more matches per player than if the team failed to qualify from the group stage. In a team format, the best individual player may be let down by his team members and so may not progress beyond the first round as a result. The best market is that offered by Sportingbet which is based on the 18-hole scores from the first three days of round-robin golf. For this market, Ernie Els looks the best play with decent odds given the small number of similarly world-class golfers this week.
Outright plays:
Argentina to win 7/1 @ Olympic
Ernie Els to have lowest 54-hole score 7/1 @ Sportingbet
1st day plays:
Philip Price to beat Brian Davis -125 @ William Hill
Nick Price to beat Mathias Gronberg -139 @ William Hill
1st day update: 1-1-0 and -0.39 units
Split the plays as Philip Price records a three-shot victory over Brian Davis, but Nick Price can't even break par and loses to Mathias Gronberg by four. Els shoots 68 and Argentina beat Japan 3-0 to keep the outright plays looking good.
2nd day plays:
Michael Campbell to beat Thomas Levet -175 @ William Hill [2 units]
Jose Coceres to beat John Daly -111 @ William Hill [same odds @ Sportsinteraction]
Lots of scalps available for the 2nd day's matches:
Argentina -163 @ Paddy Power & USA +175 @ Sportingbet [1.7% scalp]
England +350 @ Easybets & Scotland -278 @ William Hill or Sportsinteraction [4.4%]
France +500 @ Easybets & New Zealand -300 @ William Hill [9.1%]
Germany +175 @ Victor Chandler & Wales -133 @ Easybets [7.0%]
Ireland +200 @ Easybets & South Africa -188 @ Paddy Power [1.4%]
2nd day update: 2-0-0 and +3.00 units
Hands up, today I did have a good break. They
do even out over the year! Campbell was three down with three to play and ties
lose at William Hill, but he gained a shot on every hole to avoid a heavy loss
for me 
Coceres was a more
convincing two shot winner over Daly even though he did falter at the end.
Outrights still looking okay. Argentina beat USA 3-0 and looked impressive along the way, while Els recorded a 67 to lie in 4th place with one round to go. He is on 135, while David Frost, Jose Maria Olazabal and Miguel Angel Jimenez are on 133 with the Spaniards have an afternoon tee-time [harder conditions] tomorrow than the two South Africans. Back later with 3rd day plays.
No 3rd day plays, but the following 3rd day scalps may be of interest:
Argentina -163 @ Paddy Power & Australia +175 @ Victor Chandler or Easybets [1.0% scalp]
China +1000 @ William Hill & Zimbabwe -800 @ Paddy Power [2.1%]
England +162 @ William Hill & Germany -150 @ Paddy Power [1.9%]
France +450 @ Easybets & Ireland -350 @ Victor Chandler or Paddy Power [4.2%]
Scotland -175 @ Paddy Power & Wales +225 @ Ladbrokes [5.9%]
Final update: 3-1-0 and +2.61 units for the week
Nothing too attractive for wagering on the final day, so just decided to keep the week's winnings and root for Argentina. Have to be happy when in the first two weeks of three, we come out with profits from matchplay golf.
Update on outright plays: 1-1 and +6.00 units for the week
Argentina lost in the semi-final when in the
final and deciding match Jose Coceres made too many errors on the back nine to
lose to Miguel Angel Martin by one stroke 
At least we had a good run for our money and with Els winning the 54-hole
individual unofficial contest it was another good week on the European Tour.
