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European Masters
"Crans-sur-Sierre is about the worst course on Tour" according to Colin Montgomerie and he won this event in 1996 in a record low score! Wonder what the less successful ones thought about the course! Two years ago Seve Ballesteros was brought in to toughen up the course - it is only 6848 yards long and is played in thin mountain air - and the winning score last year was 7 shots more than the average for 1996-98, but yet criticisms prevailed. Where it not the first event of the Ryder Cup qualification process, this would rank up there with the Madeira Island Opens of the world!
The problem remains the greens which are very crusty, so patience is of the essence. That said, course compatibility table shows that it has been players who are ranked high in greens in regulation that finish highly in this contest. Even on the worst of tracks, the best ball-strikers seem to come to the fore which is some relief from a betting angle. Top-ranked is Lee Westwood who won this event last year, but the odds look far too short at the moment (7/2 - 5/1) and so will be passed over.
Instead better value should be found with Michael Campbell. He finished 15th last year after being in contention throughout and has been a costly go-against several times this year. With Westwood, Clarke and Bjorn in the field he is currently available at 20/1 and above and this looks a good price. Bjorn and Clarke should go close again, but their odds are rather skinny and they could easily be passed over. Will have final outright plays when the tee-times are known.
One early 72-hole play:
Michael Campbell to beat Miguel Angel Jimenez +100 @ Easybets
Jimenez may have been 6th and 7th the last two years on this course, but his
form since the US Open has been dreadful. Definitely one to oppose with
lesser-fancied players
Outright plays:
Passing over Westwood, Clarke and Bjorn as the odds on offer are too low in value terms, instead the two top plays are Padraig Harrington and Michael Campbell, with the long-shot being Eduardo Romero. Harrington is ranked 4th in greens in regulation and 8th in putting average in this week's field which shows he is capable of good scores on this course despite an unspectacular course history. He has also showed a continuation of his early season good form, but has had trouble sustaining it over 4 days, if he had overcome that the odds of 25/1 e/w with Ladbrokes look better value than any of Westwood, Clarke or Bjorn. Mentioned earlier, Campbell can be found at 25/1 at DAS so again the e/w bet is the play here. The outsider is Eduardo Romero who is about the best player on Tour until the green. He should be well-suited this week! He was 9th last year once the course had been toughened and looks much better than the 50/1 available on him generally, though Victor Chandler's and Paddy Power's 50/1 offerings are the best value as they pay the e/w bet on the first five places.
Adding 72-hole plays:
Eduardo Romero to beat Jose Coceres -111 @ Ladbrokes [same odds @ SIA]
A player tipped for an outright win against one who has missed the last four
cuts here, sounds like a big gap between these two
Nick Faldo to beat Ignacio Garrido -111 @ Easybets
A last round charge pulled Garrido up to 4th last week, but don't expect a
repeat. Faldo should have the edge on a tougher course and with the whiff of the
Ryder Cup in the mountain air
Adding 72-hole plays:
Padraig Harrington to beat Miguel Angel Jimenez -110 @ Intertops
Have opposed Jimenez with one of my outright plays and now with another;
can't get any more clear cut than that
Eduardo Romero to beat Robert Karlsson -110 @ Intertops [2 units]
Karlsson may have an excellent record on this course, but that was before it was
toughened up. He was 38th at the BMW last week, which was his first weekend golf
in over two months; neither his confidence or his game will be up to Romero's
challenge this week
Sam Torrance to beat Justin Rose -111 @ Easybets
Rose has played this course twice in the last three years and missed the cut
both times; during which Torrance has finished 12th and 4th here. This is also
Rose's 7th consecutive event, surely at least two too many
1st round update:
No 1st round plays as DAS didn't offer any lines, but still a very good first
day. The 72-hole plays currently stand 5-1-0 and the outright plays are also
looking very good 
The only
72-hole trailing after the 1st round is Harrington by two shots to Jimenez,
elsewhere Campbell leads Jimenez by four, Romero leads both Coceres and Karlsson
by seven, Faldo leads Garrido by five and Torrance leads Rose by four.
On the outright plays, Romero currently leads the event with Campbell in sole
2nd place 
Harrington lies in
27th place, but is still well in contention with 54 holes to play. Hope to have
2nd round plays, but will depend on DAS offering some lines.
2nd round plays:
David Howell to beat Stephen Allan -103 @ DAS [2 units]
Mathias Gronberg to beat Paulo Quirici -133 @ DAS [2 units]
Rafael Jacquelin to beat Hennie Otto -111 @ DAS
2nd round update: 2-1-0 and +2.89 units
Another good day Howell
defeats Allan by five shots, the same margin by which Gronberg defeats Quirici.
The only loss is the single-unit play on Jacquelin, by six shots to Otto. Four
of the six 72-hole plays are decided at the cut, with three of them winners.
Faldo defeats Garrido by four, Romero defeats Karlsson by seventeen and Torrance
defeats Rose by two. The loss is a surprisingly out-of-sorts Harrington who
missed the cut by a single shot and loses to Jimenez by six shots. The remaining
two 72-hole plays are also ahead: Campbell by one over Jimenez and Romero by ten
over Coceres.
On the outright plays, Romero still leads the event, now by three shots over a group including Westwood and Clarke, but Campbell had a horror start to his round - four shots dropped in three holes - and is now seven shots behind Romero in 10th place.
3rd round plays:
Angel Cabrera to beat Paul Lawrie -111 @ DAS
Niclas Fasth to beat Peter Senior -111 @ DAS
Van Phillips to beat Andres Forsbrand -111 @ DAS
They're playing in 3-balls over the weekend, so only DAS will be offering
head-to-head matchups over the weekend 
3rd round update: 2-1 and +0.89 units
Easy wins for Cabrera and Fasth on day three: Cabrera and Fasth shot 69s to
both win by four shots. Phillips also shot 69, but he last by two to Forsbrand.
The outright plays are looking very good - Romero leads the tournament by EIGHT
shots He shot 62 to eclipse
his playing partners Clarke and Westwood and looks a pretty certain 50/1 winner.
Campbell looked like he could make it a double outright win when he quickly rose
to 3rd with an early charge, but five bogeys in the last eight holes means he is
now in 13th place, five shots out of an e/w win. Still looking like a great week
though
Final update: 9-3-0 and +8.68 units for the week
No plays on the final day - just DAS had lines and was happy to cheer home
Eduardo Romero. The final two 72-hole plays were also winners. Campbell defeated
Jimenez by three shots, while Romero beat Coceres by twenty shots and he
finished in the top-25!! A great week on the matchup plays
Update on outright plays: 1-2 and +29.13 units
Romero was never troubled on the final day and eased home in 67 to win
wire-to-wire by TEN shots!! Not bad for a 50/1 shot
Michael Campbell once again had a good start to figure for a place finish, but
fell back again to finish in 10th place. Harrington had missed the cut, but that
was never a concern after Romero and Campbell finished the 1st day in 1st and
2nd place. If only PGA Tour winners were half as easy to predict...
