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German Masters
A small, high quality field gathers this week at Gut Larchenhof. Most of Europe's top players are in town and so too are Vijay Singh and Carlos Franco, both of whom have played in this event before, largely lured by Bernhard Langer who is co-hosting this event. This is the 3rd time this Jack Nicklaus-designed course has been used for this event, but after it was criticized for being too easy in 1998, some three hundred yards were added in length and the course played very differently in 1999. This can be seen from the course compatibility tables, which show that the course has become a rewarding one for the best ball-strikers rather than a venue for a putting contest. With well-protected greens, only the best iron-players will score well on this course.
The top-ranked player this week is Lee Westwood, but depending on tee-times, it looks as if the 6/1 generally available on him will be just too low to offer value. Instead, Vijay Singh looks a much better value proposition with a guarantee of at least 12/1 on him. He has played this tournament in both of the last two years and has finished 2nd and 12th. He has great all-round stats and missed out on the Lancome Trophy two weeks ago by just two shots, having won in Taiwan the week before. With jetlag not an issue this week, he should go close.
This is not an event for long-shots, so the two other players to note at this stage are Colin Montgomerie and Eduardo Romero. Monty's form has been indifferent of late and this has resulted in much higher odds than could normally be expected for someone so talented - Victor Chandler have him currently @ 12/1. Yet he has finished 1st and 9th in the last two years on this course [2nd and 4th the two years before that on a different course] and has the best greens in regulation stats of anyone in the field. To me, his problem seems to be more a lack of motivation that a poor swing and with this being one of the more prestigious events on the Tour, we may well see a reversal of those saggy shoulders.
Romero may not have played this course but with finishes of 1st, 22nd and 2nd in the last three weeks, he is obviously riding a huge wave of confidence. He has not shot over 72 in a single round since the British Open in July! His irons are the best club in the bag and with Victor Chandler offering 28/1 on him, this seems a very skewed market from them this week; they are very long on Westwood and it may pay to take advantage.
As ever though, the final outright plays will not be made until the tee-times are known. These and some early matchup plays will be available late today.
Outright plays:
No change to the original three to look out for now that the tee-times are known. So here are the e/w plays for the German Masters:
Vijay Singh 14/1 @ Ladbrokes [paying first four places]
Colin Montgomerie 12/1 @ Paddy Power & Victor Chandler [paying first five
places; SportOdds go as low as 6/1 
]
Eduardo Romero 33/1 @ Paddy Power & Victor Chandler
Really struggling to find any value in the lines this week - have even
lowered my benchmark just to gain a couple of 72-hole plays this week. Maybe too
many people are noticing how many of these Euro plays my ratings and I are
hitting 
For example, Five
Dimes are an extremely welcome addition to the list of books that
offer matchups on the Euro Tour, but the lines from my ratings would be almost
identical to theirs 
72-hole plays:
Vijay Singh to beat Padraig Harrington -125 @ Ladbrokes
Believe Vijay will finish in
top-two so that doesn't leave much room for this to lose, but expect it to go
all the way on Sunday
Paul McGinley to beat Dean Robertson -110 @ Intertops
Two form horses with Robertson in
particular - his last three finishes have been 10th, 7th & 5th - but a
course record of 72nd & mc does not augur well when the better iron player
McGinley has finished 6th & 17th
1st round plays:
Bernhard Langer to beat Padraig Harrington -110 @ Five Dimes
Miguel Angel Jimenez to beat Jose Maria Olazabal -115 @ Five Dimes [2 units]
1st round update: 1-1-0 and +0.90 units
Split the plays as Harrington found his game big time on the back nine. He shot 66 to lead the tournament and defeat Langer by one shot. Jimenez was a winner though, by seven shots over Olazabal. Pushed a little to find two 72-hole plays and they are both losing after the 1st round - Singh by three to Harrington and McGinley by two to Robertson. However, both picks are under-par after 18-hole, so there should be another 54 holes to make amends. The outright plays are all alive, Monty is one shot behind the leaders and Singh and Romero are three shots behind despite the Argentinean losing a ball on the last hole.
No 2nd round plays, but the 72-hole plays
continued to struggle: Singh is seven behind the tournament leader Harrington,
while McGinley is two behind Robertson. At least they have 36 more holes to
catch up. Once again they're playing in three-balls at the weekend which means
very limited matchup opportunities 
The 3rd round plays:
Padraig Harrington to beat Michael Campbell -115 @ DAS [3 units]
Adam Scott to beat Jean van de Velde -111 @ DAS
3rd round update: 1-1-0 and -2.45 units
Lost a heavy play on Harrington as he was blown away by Campbell, the margin four shots. Campbell hardly holed a putt all day outside of six feet yet still scored 65, which shows how intimidating his iron play was. Thought he would bounce back from yesterday's 64. Wrong! Some blushes were spared when Scott hit his approach shot at the last to six inches to secure a one-shot victory over Velde.
Some hope of an outright win with Monty. He lies 3rd, just four shots behind Campbell and has looked in great form. He should at least finish in the top-five to limit the losses from disappointing performances from Singh and Romero.
4th round play:
Padraig Harrington to beat Miguel Angel Jimenez -115 @ DAS [2 units]
His basic game is sound, so looking for Harrington to re-establish himself playing out of the limelight in the penultimate group.
Final update: 3-3 and -1.80 units for the week
The final round is washed out by heavy rain
And Harrington would have won to bring the week's matchups into profit of
course! The two 72-hole plays are split: Singh lost by eight to Harrington,
while McGinley beat Robertson by four. Hope for more action next week
Update on outright plays: 1-2 and -0.50 units
Denied a second successive transatlantic double by the rain, couldn't see Monty falling out of top-five for place finish and felt he could really apply the pressure on Campbell who had only won twice from five times leading after 54 holes. Singh and Romero finished well down the field in 41st and 56th place respectively.
