|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||||
Irish Open
For the first time - and not before time - the European Tour comes to the legendary Ballybunion old course, rated by many to be one of the best ten golf courses in the world. After a gentle opening six holes, the course opens out to the Atlantic Ocean and rather like Pebble Beach, this becomes a spectacular course. Again, rather like Pebble Beach, the course does not need to be long, but with small greens and the Ocean winds always a factor, this is a stern test of shot-making. With no course form and tee-times crucial, this event could throw up a surprise winner like Carnoustie did for Paul Lawrie, but the players who have developed their games in the wind, particularly the Irish, and those with good credentials at the British Open should do well here.
The top two-ranked are Padraig Harrington and Miguel Angel Jimenez. These two were magnificent at the US Open on the similar Pebble Beach course, finishing 5th and 2nd respectively. They have been in excellent form for some time and with home support also assured for Harrington, they should carry on where they left off at Pebble Beach. Again, we'll side with Victor Chandler's 1st-five payoffs for their e/w bets and take Harrington @ 11/1 and Jimenez @ 14/1. The outsider for this week's event is Philip Price, a solid and consistent top-5 performer, if not a Tour winner. Should be as adept to the wind as most and the 40/1 on offer at Victor Chandler for the e/w bet is too tempting to resist. The very short odds on Darren Clarke are definitely worth passing.
Will have 72-hole plays posted tomorrow once the tee-times and all-important weather conditions are known.
72-hole plays:
Rather like Pebble Beach a couple of weeks ago, playing the first round in the morning to avoid the worst of the day's wind should set the player up nicely for the rest of the tournament. An awful lot of players' chances were wrecked on that Thursday afternoon, makes it very difficult to make amends on the Friday morning. I expect the same sort of thing to happen on this similar seaside course even though the forecast is for relatively light winds.
An awful lot that I like this week!
Retief Goosen to beat Thomas Bjorn -110 @ SIA [2 units]
For all that Bjorn did challenge Tiger midway through the US Open, he
admitted that he was not in control of his game and was delighted to have scored
so well. The weekend exposed his game's frailties. Goosen was a quiet 12th that
week and has continued his trend this year of being prominent but not
challenging, rather unlike last year. Will still be enough though against Bjorn
Padraig Harrington to beat Thomas Bjorn -125 @ Easybets [3 units]
If Goosen can finish top-15 and beat Bjorn, my top tip for the title warrants
that extra investment 
Retief Goosen to beat Angel Cabrera -125 @ Easybets
Cabrera was another one who had a good first-half to the US Open and he is being
widely touted for this event because of his low ball-striking, but it has been
several months since his storming start to the season came to an end. I don't
see it re-igniting this week
Peter O'Malley to beat Angel Cabrera -111 @ Intertops
Top-ten in this week's field for driving accuracy and greens in regulation,
O'Malley has the stats and some great recent form to suggest he will be in the
top-10 yet again. Would easily be enough
Bernhard Langer to beat Stephen Leaney -125 @ Easybets
Langer missed the cut at Pebble Beach, typical of an erratic season, but at
least he has posted some top-20 finishes this season in a more selective
timetable, Leaney just hasn't found his game since the Tour moved to
Europe [best place: 22nd]
Peter O'Malley to beat Stephen Leaney -110 @ SIA [3 units] [-120 at the
Starnet books where ties push]
O'Malley has had four top-10 finishes since the Tour came to Europe. Must win
this one by Friday
Peter O'Malley to beat Greg Turner -111 @ Sportingbet [2 units]
A lot of interchanging of the same players in different matchups across the Euro
books this week. As outlined above, O'Malley for a top-10 position, Turner for
mid-table
Ian Woosnam to beat Retief Goosen +110 @ Victor Chandler
3rd, 7th and 3rd in his last three starts for the Welshman. Well-suited to
wind and should be top-10 again; just enough to edge Goosen at an attractive
price
Ian Woosnam to beat Philip Price -125 @ Easybets
Okay, so I'm opposing someone I've picked for the outright with someone I
haven't. Just value plays that's all. Price could finish top-five, but more
likely top-20; Woosnam looks a much better prospect for the win, but the bookies
also think that as well. The matchup @ -125 is just tempting enough
Robert Karlsson to beat Greg Turner -110 @ SIA [-115 @ the Starnet book where
ties push]
A month off for Karlsson, which contrasts with Turner's 9th place last week. But
simply put, he is the better player and has not struggled in the wind on
previous occasions
Sam Torrance to beat Sandy Lyle -125 @ Easybets
Easybets sure do throw up a lot of interesting matchups! The early leader from
last week's tournament has the edge over someone who last led a tournament in
..... ? My database doesn't go back that far!
Mid-point update:
Of the eleven plays, only two were concluded at the cut, but both were winners. Woosnam defeated Price by four and Torrance defeated Lyle by one. To summarize the others: Goosen/Bjorn level; Harrington/Bjorn one down; Goosen/Cabrera one up; O'Malley/Cabrera one down; Langer/Leaney one up; O'Malley/Leaney one up; O'Malley/Turner three up; Woosnam/Goosen two down; Karlsson/Turner one up. Can't remember when I've had so many plays so tight!
Final update: 7-4-0 and +4.34 units for the week
In the end the plays did not finish that close, a gentle breeze - the strongest of the week - picked up on Sunday to make the conditions more as expected. With the exception of Peter O'Malley who bombed with a 79 for the day, the plays went more as expected with the slight introduction of wind. To summarize the remaining plays: Goosen beat Bjorn by five and Woosnam by eight, but lost to Cabrera by two; Harrinton beat Bjorn by three; O'Malley lost to Cabrera by thirteen and Leaney by eight, but beat Turner by three; Langer beat Leaney by five; and Karlsson beat Turner by thirteen.
Update on outright bets: 0-3 and -3.00 units
Not a very good week at all! Jimenez withdrew after five holes suffering from flu, Price also missed the cut and Harrington was a distant 28th, having been as high as eighth after the first round
