|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||||
Italian Open
Sorry for the delay this week - there was a certain amount of confusion arising from the mass withdrawals from this tournament. Virtually all the books are still offering odds on Adam Scott and Fredrik Jacobson, yet they were not still on the entry list and so did not appear in the stats tables in the Analysis section. Had they indeed still been entered, it would have affected the ratings considerably as they are two of the very few who can win this event.
Without these two, this is an incredibly imbalanced field. The top-ranked are Westwood and Bjorn - truly world class players - and then come Fulke, Baker and Garbutt who are good players, but hardly household names! The course has been the venue of the IS Molas Challenge on the European Challenge Tour [the equivalent of the Buy.com Tour] and has not staged a European Tour event since 1989. As a result, none of the leading contenders will have any course form and the only reason Westwood and Bjorn can be attending this event is to solidify their places in the Order of Merit and Ryder Cup tables. Against such a poor field, they should have very little difficulty!
The first two picks are then obviously Westwood and Bjorn to win outright. Whatever their form and lack of course experience, they are a class apart from the rest of the field and one of these who should win this at a canter. The third pick is Pierre Fulke. The temptation is to opt for an Italian in his home Open, but in much better fields, Fulke has recorded three top-20 finishes in his last three events and won the Scottish PGA Championship earlier this year. Beyond these three, there is not much to pick from!
Outright plays:
Lee Westwood 9/4 @ William Hill, Paddy Power, Intertops & DAS
Thomas Bjorn 6/1 @ DAS
Pierre Fulke 25/1 @ Paddy Power [e/w with place bet paid on first five places]
Will have matchup plays later this evening.
72-hole plays:
David Howell to beat Raymond Russell -110 @ Intertops
[2 units]
Both showing some better form in the past two months, but Howell more consistent
and with the better overall stats
Steen Tinning to beat Raymond Russell -111
@ Sportsinteraction
[same odds @ Paddy Power]
Tinning had been struggling but was a decent 19th last week and is, like Howell,
more capable of winning when in contention and with the better overall stats
1st round update:
No 1st round plays, but Tinning leads Russell by four and Howell is tied with Russell. Of the outright plays, Fulke is 5th, one shot out of the lead, Westwood is 12th one shot further behind, while Bjorn lies in 71st place having recovered from a horrendous start.
One 2nd round play:
Paul Affleck to beat Jeremy Robinson -103 @ DAS
2nd round update: 0-1-0 and -1.03 units
Frustrating defeat with Affleck as he
surrendered the lead over Robinson with three bogeys in the last five holes to
lose by two and miss the cut by one 
On the 72-hole plays, Russell makes the cut by a single shot, but Howell has a
seven-shot lead over him and Tinning an eight-shot lead, so these should be
closed out over the weekend.
The outright plays not going as I expected: Bjorn missed the cut! Westwood also struggled on the greens until four holes from home and not lies 5 shots out of the lead in 21st place, while Fulke had a horror 74 to fall to 45th place, eight shots behind the leader.
To add to the frustration, 82 players
qualified for the weekend action so they will be playing in three-balls 
If the sole book offering head-to-head 3rd round matchups, DAS, have anything of
interest will post the plays early in the morning. Looks like another quiet
weekend 
Final update: 2-1-0 and +1.97 units for the week
Frustratingly quiet week with three-balls being the format every day. No plays over the weekend though the two 72-hole plays were winners: Howell and Tinning defeating Russell by five shots. At least the Volvo Masters should provide a few more opportunities next week!
Update on outright plays: 0-3 and -3.00 units
Nothing gained, but Fulke went extremely close. He broke the course record in the final round to finish agonizingly one shot short of a place finish @ 25/1. Westwood struggled with his putter this week - usually the strongest part of his game - and finished in 12th place. Bjorn had earlier missed the cut
