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Turespana Masters
Like the Tampa Bay Classic this week, we have a Tour event on a course that we know relatively little about. It was last used for the Spanish Open in 1996 which Padraig Harrington won comfortably, but the European Tour did compile comprehensive statistics at the time and the event was played in May, so the conditions will be quite different from this week. But taking the top-10 from that event which also included Sam Torrance, Lee Westwood and Robert Allenby, and also Eduardo Romero who went close in 1995 and 1996 and even won on this course in 1991, it is clear that this is a course for players with better greens in regulation and putting stats. Yet four years is a long time in course management and the course has since undergone substantial redesign under the instruction of Manuel Pinero to make the course more difficult.
With the race for the Volvo Order of Merit and a position in the Volvo Masters coming to a close, a good quality field assembles this week, including one Sergio Garcia with whom Jose Maria Olazabal and Miguel Angel Jimenez could hardly contain their anger when he declared that he would not be defending their title with them at the Dunhill Cup last week. He are Darren Clarke are the tournament favourites and head the rankings this week, but are unlikely to be picked as outright plays given the odds currently on offer. Instead Harrington and Bernhard Langer look better players to watch this week.
Harrington won last time in Madrid and was very impressive at St Andrews last week. He has been 3rd in his last two strokeplay events and boasts some of the best greens in regulation and putting average statistics of the current field. Having been rested on Sunday, he may fresher than the likes of Jimenez, Martin, Romero & Cabrera who were involved in extremely close matches on Sunday. They may be tired with Harrington and Langer able to take advantage. Langer is a similar proposition to Harrington, very strong in the greens in regulation and putting average stats and coming off a good run of form - two top-10 finishes in this last three events.
The outsider at this stage looks to be Paul McGinley. At St Andrews he looked to be in great form until he found the greens. That can be said for a lot of people on the Old Course, and he does have excellent putting statistics for the whole year, so I believe he will build on his Dunhill Cup experience and continue his run of finishing highly if not in challenging for the lead. He will be available at at least 40/1 and is very capable of a place finish this week.
Will have final outright plays later today once the tee-times have been announced, though I expect there to be little change from these three initial selections.
One early 72-hole play:
Paul McGinley to beat Mathias Gronberg -110 @ Intertops
[2 units]
Looking for a good week from McGinley,
should totally outclass Gronberg who is very volatile - either challenges for
the title or, more often, struggles to make the cut
Sticking with original three as the odds on Garcia and Clarke are much too skinny, so the outright plays:
Padraig Harrington 14/1 @ Paddy Power
Bernhard Langer 25/1 @ Paddy Power
Paul McGinley 40/1 @ Victor Chandler
All e/w bet payable on the first five places with these books.
Adding 72-hole plays:
Paul McGinley to beat Mathias Gronberg -110 @ Intertops
Very sparse offerings this week so adding another unit on this one
Paul Lawrie to beat Miguel Angel Martin
-111 @ Paddy Power
[same odds @ Sportsinteraction]
Expecting a backlash from Martin and the way the Dunhill Cup victory centered on
his incredulously dramatic victory in extra holes over David Frost. Lawrie for
his part has been putting together a decent run of form of late and won't be too
far off the leaderboard
2nd round play:
Iain Pyman to beat John Mellor -115 @ DAS [3 units]
2nd round update: 1-0-0 and +3.00 units
Pyman shot 66 to record a straightforward four-shot victory over Mellor in the only play of the round. On the negative side though, Lawrie missed the cut by a single shot with a late collapse and so lost to Martin by five; in the three-unit 72-hole play, McGinley leads Gronberg by four.
Good possibilities with the outright plays: Harrington leads the event after 36 holes, while McGinley lies in 10th place, five shots behind. Langer made the cut, but is ten shots behind Harrington.
No 3rd round plays as once again they are
playing in three-balls at the weekend 
With only DAS' 3 matchups to choose from, looks like being a quiet weekend on
the European Tour.
Final update: 2-1-0 and +4.89 units for the week
McGinley won the 72-hole play by ten shots to
make it a very profitable week, but the European Tour is a frustrating on to
cap. It is much easier than the PGA Tour to predict, but the most profitable
betting opportunities are very limited and almost non-existent when they insist
on playing in three-balls at the weekend
Update on outright plays: 2-1-0 and +10.25 units
Harrington's driving almost threw away a
commanding position on the back nine, but he still managed to hold on for a
two-shot win. McGinley made it a double win on the outrights with his 5th place
finish that he shared with Cea - he had been higher for much of the day, but @
40/1 a shared place finish is still rather profitable 
Langer was always well down the field and finished in 54th place.
