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Volvo Masters
The final event of the year for the European Tour is a gathering of the top-66 players on the Tour - though not all based on performance - in southern Spain. With the WGC event being played along the coast next week, the Europeans should have a decisive advantage, though apart from Miguel Angel Jimenez, it was the opposite last year. Twelve months ago, Jimenez stormed to victory in this event and pushed Tiger all the way the following week at Valderrama.
The course has hosted this event for the past three years and the winners in that time have been Jimenez, Clarke and Westwood. This will be no putting contest where a ridiculously low final round score can produce a surprise winner. This is a course for good ball-strikers. In 1998, the top-7 finishers were all placed in the top-11 of that season's greens in regulation stats; external factors changed the nature of the course last year after rain threatened to prevent the event from even starting, but Jimenez was 3rd in the last year's greens in regulation stats and 2nd placed Langer was 7th. The tournament was reduced to 54 holes in 1997, but this year it has been dry and the greens in regulation players will again dominate.
At the moment, the weather forecast for Seville (one hour from the course) is for heavy showers on Thursday afternoon and Friday morning. The importance of a Thursday morning/Friday afternoon tee-time is clear and as yet the draw has not been made, so these are still just early thoughts until more information becomes available.
Basically, I see this as a tournament that can be won by seven players only. Ahead of the rest are Westwood and Monty, and then come Clarke, Campbell, Harrington, Jimenez and Garcia. I cannot split these players within these two groups, so tee-times will be instrumental. Westwood won this event in 1997 and would be a strong play if he had not become so irritated by his putting at the Italian Open last week. Monty similarly has a decent record on this course and showed a great return to form at the German Masters and the Cisco World Matchplay - he is more likely to be favored with the larger odds, though a play on them both is unlikely.
Of the rest, Clarke won this event in 1998 and was 5th last year, but does not warrant odds of 10/1; Campbell was 7th last year and comes off a great Presidents Cup campaign, but better odds than 18/1 were hoped for; Harrington has been a profitable pick of late, finishing 3rd, 3rd & 1st in his last three events and has a record of two 2nd place finishes in three years here, but his odds have dropped considerably from previous weeks as a result; Jimenez is the defending champion and has always good form in southern Spain, but does not appear to current have the ability to win events that he had twelve months ago; while Garcia is one capable of winning, but has shown little evidence of doing so in recent weeks and the slow greens at Montecastillo will not be to his liking.
On a course and event like this I am struggling to find an outsider to even get a place finish, while the above are not available at very attractive odds. But as soon as the weather forecast is firmed and the tee-times are known, I'll post the final outright plays, but for now, I'd say it will be a good week for Monty.
Should have realized that they would have fixed the draw for TV and put all
the big names out together at the start of the afternoon 
So with little new to add to before, I am opting for Monty over Westwood to win
outright and at a couple of points better price it looks the better play. The
two other picks are Campbell and Harrington. Instrumental in picking these has
been the usual good form in recent weeks and on the course in previous years,
with Campbell being at slightly inflated odds [relative to other books] with the
place win of the e/w bet paid on the first five, not four, places. With history
showing that this is not an event for surprises, that extra place among the
seven I think can win it should be useful. Also opting for Harrington despite
his price - according to the Best Price
Odds site - having fallen from 16/1 yesterday to 12/1 at Victor Chandler
& Surrey Sports; that's what happens when you wait for a pointless tee-time
draw 
Outright plays:
Colin Montgomerie 9/1 @ William Hill & Intertops
Padraig Harrington 12/1 e/w @ Victor Chandler, Surrey & Paddy Power
Michael Campbell 20/1 e/w @ Surrey
72-hole plays:
Lee Westwood to beat Thomas Bjorn -130 @ Sportfanatik
[2 units] [same odds @ other starnet books]
No great form on this course and a lackluster missed cut last week raises
sufficient doubts over Bjorn this week. He may finish in the top-10, but will
probably not challenge unlike his opponent
Paul McGinley to beat Pierre Fulke -120
@ William Hill
[2 units]
Both have finished in the top-20 in their last four tournaments, but Fulke's
performance on this course has been awful - 60th and 54th of 66 competitors the
last two seasons - McGinley looks the
better bet to maintain that run of top-20 finishes
Paul McGinley to beat Jean van de Velde
-111 @ Ladbrokes
With one of the worst greens in
regulation stats of the whole field and just coming back from two missed cuts on
the PGA Tour, including last week's NCR Classic, van de Velde looks worth
opposing this week
Sergio Garcia to beat Jose Maria Olazabal
-135 @ Sportfanatik
[same odds @ other starnet books]
The young Spaniard will figure on the leaderboard this week; he was 5th last
year and though unlikely to win he will at least be a contender. But with
figures of 38th, 76th and missed cut in Olly's last three European events, it is
questionable whether he contend as well
Nick O'Hern to beat Richard Green -125 @
Easybets
[2 units]
Too much is being read into Green's 3rd place finish last week; it was only the
10th cut that he had made from 22 events this year. O'Hern is much the better
player having missed only 3 cuts from 21 events so far this year
Mark McNulty to beat Ian Woosnam -118 @
Easybets
The Zimbabwean is much the more
consistent player - no sign of the Woosie's current run of missed cut,
withdrawn, 57th place on McNulty's current form chart. Being paired by Seve will
not help the Welshman either
1st round plays:
Lee Westwood to beat Thomas Bjorn -125 @ Sportingbet
Alex Cejka to beat Jarmo Sandelin +100 @ William Hill [2 units]
Sergio Garcia to beat Nick Faldo -138 @ Sportingbet [2 units]
Niclas Fasth to beat Mike Harwood -150 @ William Hill
Ian Garbutt to beat Jonathan Lomas -111 @ William Hill
Paul McGinley to beat Costantino Rocca -180 @ Intertops [3 units]
Dean Robertson to beat Ronan Rafferty -164 @ William Hill [2 units]
1st round update: 6-0-1 and +9.00 units
Nice way to start the week! Six good wins and a decent position on the
72-hole plays. Today's results: Westwood/Bjorn 2 up; Cejka/Sandelin 2 up;
Garcia/Faldo 1 up; Fasth/Harwood 6 up; Garbutt/Lomas 3 up; McGinley/Rocca all
square; Robertson/Rafferty 5 up. Some easy wins and the only concern was the
"it can't lose play" on McGinley! Was never more than one shot between
them and though McGinley was in the lead more often than not, glad to get away
with a push at Intertops
In the 72-hole plays, the current plays stand at 4-2-0 with the matches as such: Westwood/Bjorn 2 up; McGinley/Fulke 6 down; McGinley/Velde 1 up; Garcia/Olazabal 6 down; O'Hern/Green 3 up; McNulty/Woosnam 3 up. Up in four, but down by quite a margin in the other two. Still a very satisfactory day.
Back with 2nd round plays within a couple of hours.
2nd round plays:
Peter Baker to beat Peter Senior -125 @ William Hill [same odds @ Sportingbet]
Miguel Angel Jimenez to beat Michael Campbell -111 @ William Hill [2 units]
David Howell to beat Emanuele Canonica -105 @ Sportingbet
Andrew Coltart to beat Ronan Rafferty -150 @ William Hill [2 units]
Costantino Rocca to beat Niclas Fasth +125 @ William Hill [2 units]
Stephen Leaney to beat Fredrik Jacobson -138 @ Sportingbet [2 units]
2nd round update: 2-4-0 and -5.03 units
Today's plays on the European Tour were as
bad as those on the PGA Tour were good 
Howell was a very poor three shot loser to Canonica and Jimenez started
bogey-bogey for the 2nd day - it was always catch-up thereafter with the final
deficit four shots, though the insurance was that it improved the outright play
on Campbell. Rocca was the only pick not to break par, but it was amazing act of
self-destruction, typical of the temperamental Italian: he bogeyed four of the
last six holes to turn a lead over Fasth into a two-shot defeat
Had he held on for victory it would have been a break-even day; the same would
have been the case had Leaney not lost to Jacobson by one shot. When your player
shoots the 2nd lowest score of the day (66) and still loses, it is just one of
those days 
The two winners were Baker by one over Senior and Coltart by five over Rafferty. The 72-hole plays also deteriorated today as well to now stand 2-3-1. The standings: Westwood/Bjorn 4 up; McGinley/Fulke 8 down; McGinley/Velde 1 down; Garcia/Olazabal 8 down; O'Hern/Green all square; McNulty/Woosnam 6 up.
No winning positions on the outright plays, but all three in contention. Monty had a hole-in-one on the way to moving up to 6th place, three shots behind Fulke; Campbell inflicted a 2nd round loss today, but his 67 moved him up to 12th place, five shots out of the lead; while Harrington is one shot further back in 14th place.
Back later with better 3rd round plays
The day just got worse! Baker had been wrongly accredited with a birdie on the 18th when it was a bogey. It means a one-shot loss to Senior
- he did have a three-shot lead on
the back nine.
New record for the day: 1-5-0 and -7.28 units
3rd round plays:
Ian Poulter to beat Emanuele Canonica -103 @ DAS
Jose Coceres to beat Costantino Rocca -138 @ Victor Chandler [2 units]
Pierre Fulke to beat Jose Maria Olazabal +125 @ William Hill [2 units]
3rd round update: 1-1-1 and -0.27 units
Fulke is a two-shot winner against Olazabal
for the day's winner, but Poulter and Canonica couldn't be separated all day -
glad to made the play with DAS and secure a dead-heat rather than a loss with a
Euro book. Coceres joins the long-list of European plays that surrenders a
good-sized lead on the back nine: from two ahead with eight to play he has four
bogeys going home and loses by two
No joy with 72-hole plays, now standings
2-4-0, so the prospect is looming of having a six-play sweep on the first day
and still losing money on the week
The standings: Westwood/Bjorn 7 up; McGinley/Fulke 8 down; McGinley/Velde 3
down; Garcia/Olazabal 6 down; O'Hern/Green 4 down; McNulty/Woosnam 12 up
4th round plays:
Jean van de Velde to beat Andrew Coltart -110 @ Intertops [2 units]
Peter O'Malley to beat Richard Green +110 @ William Hill
Paul McGinley to beat Colin Montgomerie +140 @ Intertops [2 units]
Roger Wessels to beat Greg Owen -110 @ Sportingbet [2 units]
Final update: 2-2-0 and -1.10 units for the day; 12-12-2 and -4.01 units for the week
Very frustrating to have three losing days
after such a great start. Split the days plays as Monty fails to drop his
shoulders and surprisingly shot 65 to defeat McGinley by eight, while Coltart
defeated Velde by three. The two wins were O'Malley, by three over Green, and
Wessels, by five over Owen. No change in the 72-hole plays as they closed 2-4-0:
Westwood/Bjorn 10 up; McGinley/Fulke 14 down; McGinley/Velde 4 down;
Garcia/Olazabal 4 down; O'Hern/Green 3 down; McNulty/Woosnam 14 up. That totally
scuppers the chances of 60% on the European Tour
Update on outright plays: 1-2 and +0.50 units for the week
At least Campbell stemmed some of the losses this week. His final round 63 catapulted him to 3rd position and gained him a place finish. Monty shot 65 to close, but Saturday's round had been ten shots worse and with him finishing six shots out of the lead, it could have happened for him this week. Harrington finished 14th, but never threatened a place finish
