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Open de Argentina
The end at last! Well, almost. This is the last tournament before the European Tour takes a break for the Masters and then regroups in Morocco. Not quite Europe, but at least the continent is in sight and we're on the 'home' stretch of the Tour. This is not to belittle the Open de Argentina, but capping the Tour will become a lot easier when there is some consistency in courses & climates from week to week!
As a tournament, the Open de Argentina has a fine tradition; this will be its 96th staging, though only the first as a co-sanctioned event between the Association Argentina de Golf and the European Tour. The venue is The Jockey Club, which many thought should have been the venue for the EMC World Cup last year as it is widely regarded as the best course in Argentina. It is a short course, measuring 6,780 yards, with a heavy emphasis on straight hitting and good ball-striking. Not only do the course compatibility stats show the heavy influence of greens in regulation stats this week, but the roll-call of previous winners on this course - Vicente Fernandez, Jim Furyk and Mark Calcavecchia (twice) - confirms the point.
With the 2000 event staged only four months ago on this course and with only the European Tour journeymen making the trip to South America, it could provide a good indicator for this week. That said, three of the top-four from that event are this week's outright selections. They are Vicente Fernandez who won the event, Angel Cabrera who finished 3rd and Jose Cantero who was one place behind.
Cabrera has been installed as the favorite for this event and rightly so. He had two top-10 finishes in the Middle East in his only European Tour starts of the year and competed strongly in the TPC last week to finish 26th on a course that was not suited to his aggressive play. That he can now control his driver and perform well in the US and extremely well in Europe is testimony to the maturity of his game nowadays. He has represented his country in the various nation events and most of all, in the World Cup at Buenos Aires golf club last year. This event is particularly important for him: "Playing on The European Tour in my home country has always been a big dream of mine and to see it happen is very exciting." He will control his game this week and be an emotional champion!
Bob Charles almost caused an upset and boost for the standing of the Senior PGA Tour when he figured very prominently at the New Zealand Open. This week Fernandez should improve on his finish. This is not a course on which length is important as he showed in winning this title four months ago. That took his tally of Open de Argentina title to eight, of which two have been on this course. He has shown some decent form on the Senior PGA Tour to gain two top-10 finishes from seven starts this year, but like Cabrera, defending his home title to an international field will be the highlight of his year. The incredible price of 125/1 @ Surrey has long gone, but he still represents good value for a place finish.
The final pick, Jose Cantero, is priced up at only one firm, despite that lofty finish in November. However, unlike some of the other Argentinians, he unlikely to be fazed by the arrival of the European Tour contingent as he has been a member of the Tour itself some years ago. He best finish was 14th in the Italian Open in 1991, but at the moment he just concentrates on golf within Argentina alone and when the Tour de las Americas came to Argentina for the Litoral Open in November he finished 9th. With experience of Tour golf and a good record in recent events, including on this course, he may well be one home unknown who graces the leaderboard this week.
Outright plays:
Angel Cabrera to win 8/1 @ DAS
Vicente Fernandez to win 40/1 e.w. @ Surrey
Jose Cantero to win 125/1 e.w. @ William Hill
72-hole plays:
Vicente Fernandez to beat
Massimo Florioli -111 @ Simon Bold
[2 units]
A month ago Florioli was playing in the European Challenge Tour event and now he
is pitted against a defending national open champion! He may be in a decent run
of form, but showed on Madeira Island that his nerve is very suspect when in
contention, so just as well last week's event was reduced to 54 holes. Fernandez
should win this at a canter!
Christopher Hanell to beat Nic Henning
-111 @ UKBetting
Last week's finishes broke a run of poor results on the European Tour for both
players, but Henning is the one opposed because a severely-disrupted event is no
proof that he can compete outside his native South Africa. It was his 16th
European Tour event outside South Africa in the past three years and only the
6th time he has even made it to the weekend
Anthony Wall to beat Nic Henning -110
@ Stanley
Wall closed strongly to finish 7th last week. Hopefully it will signal a return
to form of one of the Tour's better prospects. He has come back from glandular
fever to win on Tour and compete in the best of tournaments and across different
continents. Far superior player!
Mid-point update:
All three plays make the cut and all three are very close. In the top play, Fernandez trails Florioli by two, while Hanell is tied with Henning and Wall leads Henning by one. In the outrights, Cabrera takes a two-shot lead into the weekend, while Fernandez fell back from the top of the leaderboard early in the first round to 45th after 36 holes. Best to forget the Cantero pick! He missed the cut by 14 shots!
Should have two-ball plays available in the morning.
Very few books have priced up the two-ball matches at this stage, so from their offerings:
3rd round play:
Mark Mouland to beat Simon Hurley +100 @ Stanley [2 units]
Erol Simsek to beat Tomas Munoz +138 @ Sportingbet [2 units]
3rd round update: 1-1 and +0.00 units
Split the plays as Mouland edged out Hurley by a shot, but Simsek was a four-shot loser to Munoz. Better day on the 72-hole plays though as all three edged in front. Fernandez has a 3-shot lead, Hanell a 2-shot lead and Wall a 4-shot lead. Even the outrights improved a little. Cabrera still has the lead, but now shares it with Pettersson, and Fernandez jumped to 12th and is now only three shots out of a place finish.
4th round plays:
Angel Franco to beat Simon Hurley -125 @ Sportingbet
Olle Karlsson to beat Johan Skold +120 @ Sportingbet [2 units]
Final update: 2-0-0 and +3.40 units for the day; 4-3-0 and +3.19 units for the week
Good day, bad day! Good day with the two winners in the 4th round plays: Franco won by two shots and Karlsson by three shots. Bad day with Nic Henning shooting 65 to beat both Hanell and Wall by a single shot in the 72-hole plays. At least Fernandez finished three shots ahead of Florioli in the top 72-hole play to ensure a profitable week.
Update on outright plays: 1-2 and +6.00 units
Cabrera won the event by two shots for his
first win on the European Tour and justified the win-only play at the available
odds. Fernandez almost made it a double win on the week, but he finished one
shot out of a place finish. Still a profitable week and more than covers the
losses on the first part of the South American leg.
