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Benson and Hedges International
With apologies to my Continental European colleagues, or for that matter, those of Africa, South America, the Middle East, Asia and Australia, this is the REAL start of the 2001 European Tour. A top quality field and a course that is just as good; this is a much anticipated event. Only the PGA Tour residents, Jesper Parnevik and Sergio Garcia, are missing this week from the last European Ryder Cup team. A fitting remark as this is the venue for this year's Ryder Cup matches and Curtis Strange, the US team captain, is one notable teeing it up this week.
The course was the scene of Europe's landmark Ryder Cup victory in 1985 when Sam Torrance sank a putt the width of the 18th green to win to Cup. He will return as European captain later this year, but the course is already showing the changes introduced for those matches. The fairways are much tighter than last year and with the wet Spring, the rough will be quite problematic. It has always been a shot-maker's course, and was even lambasted before the 1985 Ryder Cup for being too American in its setup, but this year accuracy off the tee will be more important. Olly will find it difficult to make it two wins in two weeks and two wins in two years in the same event.
With the market dominated by the five players Torrance would love most to have on his team, the best value lies just beneath them in the markets. This week's outright selections are Bernhard Langer, Miguel Angel Jimenez and Angel Cabrera. Both Langer and Jimenez have chosen to concentrate their early season events on the PGA Tour rather than follow the trans-continental European Tour and for both players it has been a success. Langer's last three events have yielded finishes of 3rd (TPC), 6th (Masters) and 3rd (WorldCom Classic). Bar Tiger, that type of form is matched only by Mickelson. Generally regarded as one of the best shot-makers in the game, he returns to an event in which only he and Olly can become triple-winners of this title. He won in 1991 and 1997 on different courses and but for an opening round 76, would have finished much higher than 18th last year on this course. Difficult to see him out of the top-10.
Jimenez did struggle at times on the PGA Tour, but got his game together to finish 10th at the Masters and on his return to Europe he finished 3rd in his home Open. Like Langer, he opened with a poor 76 last year, but he recovered strongly to finish 9th. The emphasis on both accuracy off the tee and shot-making ability is perfect for Jimenez's game and he should feature strongly during the week.
It would seem strange that while emphasizing the importance this week, the 3rd choice would be longest hitter on the Tour, Angel Cabrera. In truth, this is a course that does reward attacking play, not least at the signature 10th hole which is a drivable par-four over water which requires a high fade. The penalties are harsh, but ignoring the farce of last week, Cabrera is in the form of his life having finished in the top-10 of five of his previous six starts. The stretch included a home in the Open de Argentina, a top-10 at the Masters and the only failing (26th) was at the TPC. He even recorded another top-10 in this event 12 months ago and albeit on a different course, was 2nd two years ago. Having secured his maiden Tour win, it will be no surprise if he picks another three or four titles this year.
Outright plays:
Bernhard Langer to win 25/1 e.w. @ Ladbrokes [5 places option]
Miguel Angel Jimenez to win 25/1 e.w. @ Surrey or Victor Chandler
Angel Cabrera to win 33/1 e.w. @ Victor Chandler
72-hole plays:
Bernhard
Langer to beat Thomas Bjorn -110 @ Surrey
I
don't remember ever having favored or opposed a player five times at the start
of the tournament, but yes, I am that convinced that Langer will finish very
high this week and these plays are determined independent of each other. Bjorn
missed the cut last year with rounds of 77 & 76 and if the rough is up, then
his erratic driving will be severely punished
Bernhard
Langer to beat Darren Clarke +110 @ William Hill
[3 units]
Clarke is the most frustrating player in European golf. He collapsed to a final
round 79 when in the lead at the Open de Espana yet went to Japan the next week
and won the Chunichi Crowns. If he doesn't get a good start, then he will
quickly lose interest. At least with Langer, you need he will give 100% all week
long whatever his position on the leaderboard
Bernhard
Langer to beat Padraig Harrington +110 @ Victor
Chandler
[2 units]
Harrington should have won this event last year and only an embarrassing
disqualification for failing to sign his card denied him. He would have broken
the course record as well! There is no doubting his form, but I feel the return
to the Belfry will haunt him more than inspire him. He has a lot of live up to
following his performance last year and the pressure may take its toll
Bernhard
Langer to beat Phillip Price -111 @ Ladbrokes
[3 units]
Price may be thought of as a difficult opponent. He won two weeks ago in
Portugal and finished 2nd last year. That win was rather out of the blue
following his health problems this year and it will be interesting to see if he
can retain that sudden form as well as cope with achieving only the 2nd win of
his career when the first one was seven years ago, also the Portuguese Open
Bernhard
Langer to beat Lee Westwood -135 @ Sportfanatik
[2 units]
Westwood has just returned to golf after taking time out following the birth of
his son and he chose to play in Macau last week. He played poorly to finish 43rd
and the long round-trip is hardly ideal preparation for this event. He may well
have next week's defense of his Deutsche Bank Open title on his mind if doesn't
start particularly fast.
Angel
Cabrera to beat Adam Scott -110 @ BlueSq
[3 units]
In the battle of the big-hitters, Scott has struggled with his game over the
past couple of months and with his trans-continental schedule he will be
ill-suited to the much colder climate in Britain. Cabrera also prefers the sun
on his back, but is in much the better vein of form and is tipped to figure
prominently this week
Marc Farry to
beat David Carter -111 @ Simon Bold
In the chaos of his home Open, Farry
played some excellent golf to finish 6th and should bring some of that with him
across the Channel. He is not expected to feature too much this week, but should
safely make the cut and that is something that Carter has been unable to achieve
since the Tour came to the European mainland
Curtis
Strange to beat Sam Torrance +150 @ Ladbrokes
[2 units]
Ugly matchup as Strange has missed his last six cuts and Torrance has missed his
last three. including both his appearances on the European mainland in recent
weeks. However, with the pressure firmly on Torrance on his home course (for
September), there is value in the +150 on Strange who plays this week without
pressure and on a Tour in which he would find it much easier to make the cut.
Easybets have Strange priced as the favorite
1st round plays:
Lee Westwood to beat Colin Montgomerie -118 @ Five Dimes [3 units]
Retief Goosen to beat Aaron Baddeley -113 @ Five Dimes
1st round update: 0-1-1 and -1.13 units
A winless first day as Monty and Westwood tie with 73s and Goosen lost by two shots to Baddeley. In the 72-hole plays, Langer shot a level-par 72 to keep himself in play, but so did all of his opponents and they may end up a little close for comfort. The other plays are more clear-cut. Cabrera leads Scott by six, Farry leads Carter by four and Strange trails Torrance by ten. At this early stage, all the outright plays are in contention being level-par or better after 18 holes.
2nd round plays:
Bernhard Langer to beat Angel Cabrera -132 @ Five Dimes
Stephen Leaney to beat Paul McGinley -105 @ Five Dimes
2nd round update: 1-1-0 and -0.05 units
Split the plays and that was as good as it was going to get. Cabrera dropped two shots late in the day to hand Lander a one-shot victory, but while McGinley failed to break par, Leaney managed to shoot 81! He lost in style and by nine shots. Of the eight 72-hole matchups, only two are decided at the cut. Scott withdrew after an opening 78 and so handed victory to Cabrera, while Strange missed the cut and finished 13 shots behind Torrance.
With all the 3-unit plays winning or having won, the outlook is fairly good. In the remaining matches, Langer trails Bjorn by four, leads Clarke by four, trails Harrington by one, leads Price by three and is tied with Westwood. That just leaves Farry who is one shot behind Carter. In the outright, all three made the cut and are in contention for at least a place. Cabrera is 11th, Langer is 17th and Jimenez is 30th.
Nothing from Five Dimes' overnight lines, but hopefully will something in the morning when the two-ball lines are released.
3rd round plays:
Bernhard Langer to beat Aaron Baddeley -150 @ Intertops [2 units]
Thomas Bjorn to beat Henrik Stenson -154 @ Centrebet
3rd round update; 0-2-0 and -4.54 units
Another poor day as both matches lose. Langer dropped three shots early in his round and was always behind who eventually won by four shots. The other play looks much more promising when Stenson dropped two early shots, but recovered well, while Bjorn completely lost interest after a couple of missed short putts. In the 72-hole plays, things are still precariously balanced. Langer trails Bjorn by two, Clarke by one and Price by three, while he leads Harrington by two and Westwood by three. In the other play, Farry leads Carter by seven.
In another ironic twist for the week, Torrance withdrew after hurting a rib muscle after yesterday's 2nd round. Will wait on a final adjudication from Ladbrokes, but still think it was be a loser as Strange missed the cut after the 2nd round as well. Better hope with the outrights again. Cabrera lies 4th, Jimenez is 16th and Langer 24th.
4th round play:
Aaron Baddeley to beat Phillip Price -110 @ Five Dimes
May have some two-ball plays in the morning
Adding 4th round plays:
Aaron Baddeley to beat Eduardo Romero -120 @ Intertops
Francisco Cea to beat Brett Rumford +150 @ Centrebet
Russell Claydon to beat Dean Robertson +135 @ Intertops
Marc Farry to beat Jose Manuel Lara +105 @ Centrebet [2 units]
Miguel Angel Jimenez to beat Steve Webster -143 @ Centrebet [2 units]
Olle Karlsson to beat Henrik Stenson -110 @ Intertops [2 units]
Bernhard Langer to beat Jean-Francois Remesy -159 @ Centrebet
There will be better lines available later, but I will be offline for the rest of the day
Final update: 2-6-0 and -5.74 units for the day; 5-15-2 and -18.89 units for the week
I
spend the day away from all contact with the scores and come back to an
incredible scenario! have checked and this is the worst record in any event
since I began posting plays publicly 
Not
only did the day's plays bomb, the situation on the 72-hole plays took a serious
nosedive! Every single pick was over-par today as only Claydon (1 shot) and
Jimenez (2 shots) won. Of the rest, Baddeley lost by two to Price and Romero,
Cea lost by four to Rumford, Farry lost by four to Lara, Karlsson lost by three
to Stenson and Langer lost by one to Remesy.
Langer
shot 77 today and that really scuppered the 72-hole plays. It meant he lost to
Bjorn by seven, to Clarke by four, to Harrington by five and to Price by six. At
least he secured a push against Westwood and Farry beat Carter by ten shots. And
I had been looking forward to this week for so long as well 
Update on outright plays: 1-2 and +1.63 units
Stenson wobbled but didn't falter and that left too much ground for Cabrera to make up. He did finish 2nd though, which was better than Jimenez and Langer who finished 27th and 57th respectively. Given the matchups, could have done with a 33/1 winner!
