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British Open
After the carnage of Carnoustie and wide-open fairways of St. Andrews, it is good to get the Open Championship back to a traditional links set-up. Huge undulations, pot bunkers and hard fairways make this a test unlike any other that most of this week's field will face this year. Course management, shot selection and imagination are essential in Open Championship week. Just as it is proper that the majors in tennis are played on different surfaces, so it is in golf. It makes Tiger's achievement last year all the more remarkable.
However, Tiger will face a very different course to last year. One key aspect of his victory at St Andrews was that he never went in a bunker; when Faldo won there in 1990 he found sand just once. It is not so easy at Lytham. The bunkers are far more numerous - 196 to 112 - and too many bunkers were in out-of-date position at St Andrews - new technology meant they could be carried off the tee. Not so true at Lytham and these are seriously deep pot-hole bunkers! Ballesteros, who won the two Opens at Lytham prior to Lehman in 1996, said that the most important club in the bag on this course was the sand wedge. In addition to the dangerous fairway traps, the greens are hard and slightly raised so the roll-off areas are popular places. These are not the shaved roll-off areas of the US Open, but grassy hollows and, of course, pot bunkers.
Scoring should be fairly low on the front-nine - there are not so many bunkers and there are two back-to-back reachable par-fives. The bunkers start to spread like a rash on the back nine and the par-fours gradually get longer and longer. It seems unlikely that we will have the benign conditions of 1996, so this will really be a finish to separate the champion from the also-rans.
This will be no stroll for Tiger. He excels at course management, shot selection and imagination, but even before his dip in form since the US Open he has not played anywhere as well as last year consistently. For the first since 1998 he is no longer 1st-ranked in total driving (19th), ball striking (5th) or the All-Around ranking (5th). Most importantly, he is not as good at holing out as last year and that is also being reflected in his sand save percentages. He has been given a huge boost with an early tee-time. If he can post a decent score, then the psychological impact over the other contenders will his greatest asset. He failed to achieve that at the US Open. Definitely not backable at the available odds.
That said, I do believe this will be an event dominated by PGA Tour players. I had liked the prospects of Bjorn and Clarke and they should be amongst the highest placed players from the European Tour, but I can't see them winning this week, nor can I see many other European Tour players lasting the full four days. They will feature, but not when it matters IMO. Two-thirds of the top-20 ranked players in the 'course form' table are based on the PGA Tour. This week's three selections are therefore from this Tour: Vijay Singh, Davis Love and Jesper Parnevik.
Five top-20 finishes in the last seven years shows that Vijay is not unduly hampered by the conditions typically experienced at the British Open. He was also 3rd going into the final round in 1996 only to fall back on the Sunday to 11th. His form this season has been consistently good - no worse than 18th in his last 16 starts - though he has continued to fail to win in the US. His last victory on American soil was at the 2000 Masters. Yet he did win back-to-back events on the European Tour earlier this season and that winless tag will not be a millstone this week. Twice a major champion, he has the ability to seize the opportunity should it arise on Sunday and at worst, looks a decent shot for a top-6 finish.
I have vowed in the past never to back DL3 again and his run of 7th, missed cut, 2nd since returning to competitive golf while still injured is enough reason to stay clear again. However, his record in this event is excellent with no worse than 11th in each of the last four years on a variety of very different courses. his form has been excellent and on any other week against Hoch he would have won the Western Open. Like Vijay, he does not fit the bill of the "accurate off the tee" player that I think will do well this week - some players can just raise their games for majors and contend in all the different formats. He is also a major champion and his experience could be important.
The final pick, Jesper Parnevik, is not a major champion, but he is the consummate links player. An ability to shape the ball both ways, keep it low under the wind and a great imagination around the greens make him a British Open specialist. He should have won in 1994 at Turnberry and again in 1997 at Troon. To those runners-up spots can be added two other top-10 finishes in the last three years - it was only on the wide-open spaces of St. Andrews that he underperformed. He has had a light schedule coming into this event, but showed enough form last week at Loch Lomond to impress and 50/1 is much higher than anywhere else.
Outright plays:
Vijay Singh to win 20/1 e.w. @ Bet247 [6 places]
Davis Love to win 28/1 e.w. @ Bet247 [6 places]
Jesper Parnevik to win 50/1 e.w. @ Olympic
72-hole plays:
Rocco
Mediate to beat Robert Karlsson -111 @ Simon Bold
Karlsson may have had some decent
finishes on the European Tour this season, but being the tallest player on Tour
and having a very high ball flight does not make him suitable for links golf.
Having missed the cut on his last six attempts at the Open Championship is proof
enough. Mediate has a far better record including 18th here in 1996 and has been
in good form of late
Tom Watson to
beat Sandy Lyle +100 @ Paddy Power
[2 units]
Don't understand how they can make Lyle the favorite. He has been struggling to
make cuts on the European Tour, whereas Watson's confidence is maintained with
being competitive on the Senior PGA Tour. He has dominated this event and
continued to play well in this event. In the last five Opens, Watson would have
beaten Lyle four times. This will be another.
Will have more plays later.
Props:
Players to miss the cut:
Aaron Baddeley
-111 @ BetInternet
Simon Dyson -111 @ Simon Bold
[2 units]
Soren Hansen -111 @ Simon Bold
David Howell +105 @ Centrebet
Fredrik Jacobson -111 @ Simon Bold
[2 units]
Raphael Jacquelin +120 @ Centrebet
[2 units]
Soren Kjeldsen -111 @ Simon Bold
[3 units]
Stephen Leaney -118 @ BetInternet
Darren Lee -133 @ Centrebet
[2 units]
Mark McNulty +140 @ Centrebet
Justin Rose -105 @ Centrebet
[2 units]
Under 26 players under par
after 72 holes -110 @ Pinnacle
[3 units]
Conditions will be nowhere near as benign as 1996 when 40 players finished the
event under par. Much more relevant are the 1988 (10 players) and 1979 (1
player) events.
Still
nothing more from Camelot 
Will
post my 'B' list of 72-hole plays instead.
Adding 72-hole plays:
Fred
Couples to beat Jose Maria Olazabal -103 @ Five
Dimes
Motivation for regular Tour events is
a problem for Couples, but the British Open has always been a good event for
him. In 13 trips across the pond, he has finished in the top-10 on eight
occasions, including 6th last year. Olazabal can count just one and with his
form erratic at best, he is one to oppose
Rocco
Mediate to beat John Daly -140 @ Camelot
This is not a course on which Daly
can smash his driver. He could do so at St Andrews and he won there in 1995 and
he could do so at Loch Lomond last week and he finished 2nd. On the more typical
British links courses he has struggled and he should do so again this week
despite the new image as the "Mild Thing"
Kevin
Sutherland to beat Niclas Fasth -105 @ Camelot
[2 units]
Both have been been playing well on their respective Tours and both will make
their British Open debuts. This is basically a play against Fasth's errant
driving and in favor of Sutherland's experience which will be important in this
difficult event
Adam Scott to beat
Justin Rose -140 @ Moneyplays
Once again I oppose Rose! He's a
better player than he was, but he is still a very long way from being a
world-beater. Not so for the young Aussie with the Tiger swing. Great things
have been predicted for Scott and he has already won on the European Tour this
season. With three top-10 finishes in his last four events (to none from Rose),
he comes into the event in great form and should easily make the weekend
Update:
Not
pretty on the matchups. Didn't help that Mediate withdrew with a "bad
back" 
Both his opponents
missed the cut so he didn't have too much to do to beat them! Two of the other
72-hole plays were decided at the cut and both were also losses: Watson lost by
nine to Lyle and Couples had a horrible day to lost to Olazabal by six. In the
two remaining plays, Sutherland trails Fasth by six and Scott trails Rose by
three. Should have left my 'B' list alone!
At
least the props were a face-saver. The cut props finished 9-2 to cover
the losses on the matchups and bring the week into profit 
The scoring prop looks
to be quite tight. 34 players are currently under par, but with weekend pin
positions, the extra pressure of a major weekend and the weather forecast to be
more challenging tomorrow, there is still a chance of success. Might even be a
good week yet. Parnevik lies 3rd, just two shots behind Monty, Love and Singh
are only three shots further back in 17th. Should get at least one place finish
from these three.
Final update: 9-9-0 and -1.99 units
Strange week. The cut props finish 9-2, but everything else loses! The weather conditions were much better than forecast and 28 players finished under par to scupper the par prop, while the two remaining matchups lost. Sutherland secured a top-10 finish but still finished two behind Fasth, while Scott lost to Rose by three.
Update on outright plays: 0-3 and -3.00 units
Damn that 18th hole!
Parnevik bogeyed it to finish one shot out of a place win and Singh
double-bogeyed to finish out a place win
Love was further back in 21st position. A losing week in a major. Tend to be
more losing weeks in majors than any other. Just as well it's only one
tournament of five this week and they're doing much better 
