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Deutsch Bank-SAP Open
Apart from the British Open, this event has the biggest purse on the European Tour and that is after the sponsors have paid Tiger Woods another million dollar appearance fee! With Els also flying over for this event, this is the best field of the year so far on this Tour and it should prove to be a memorable event. It has been every time that Tiger has teed it up here. Two years ago on this course, he coasted to victory and from that point onwards totally dominated world golf having played second fiddle to Duval since the start of the year. Last year, also saw some of the vulnerability of Tiger's game as he lead by two shots going into the last round, only to finish four shots behind Westwood.
The event rotates between the Gut Kaden course on which Westwood has won the last two stagings and the St Leon Rot course on which Woods has won the only previous event. It is a long, flat course with the long-hitters benefiting particularly from the four par-5s which are all over 540 yards. However, with plenty of water around, including the island green 7th hole, so good greens in regulation stats are a necessity.
With Woods passed over because of his odds and Clarke and Monty also ignored because they are paired with Woods for the first two days, the three outright selections are Ernie Els, Angel Cabrera and Miguel Angel Jimenez. Els may have had a rather erratic start to the season and is plagued by an inability to win on the PGA Tour, but on the European Tour it is quite different. He still maintains membership of the Tour and performs much better when the big fish in the smaller pond. Apart from the qualifying WGC and Major events last year, he played in five European Tour events and finished in the top-5 in all of them, including a win at the Loch Lomond Invitational. He finished 5th here last time on this course and with the benefit of playing behind rather than with Woods, he could easily be his strongest challenger at the weekend.
Angel Cabrera has simply raised his game to that of a world class player in the past year and with the belief that he has in himself, then it really should not matter that Woods is in this week's field. He average drive this year is 16 yards longer than Woods' and he should take full advantage of the rewards to big-hitting. Coming off 2nd place last week at the Belfry and having already secured his maiden Tour victory this year, Cabrera is already looking a prime candidate for European player of the year.
Miguel Angel Jimenez is much less likely to win this event than the other two, though he did push Woods very close at Valderrama in 1999. Yet given the very high odds for the outright market, it is this and not the 'w/o Woods' or place-only that is the play. He may not have been in the chase last week when he finished 27th, but he has already shown in the past couples of months in Span and the US that his game is in good condition. Like Cabrera, he has always ranked high in the European Tour greens in regulation stats and has an excellent record in this event, albeit largely on a different course. He finished 7th here in 1999 and also 7th in 1998 and 6th last year. He will need to finish at least one place higher for a place win, but at 50/1 that alone would be a nice profit.
Outright plays:
Ernie Els to win 20/1 e.w. @ Surrey
Angel Cabrera to win 33/1 e.w. @ Bet247
Miguel Angel Jimenez 50/1 e.w. @ Bet247 or Stanley
72-hole plays:
Ernie
Els to beat Lee Westwood -118 @ Centrebet
[3 units]
Westwood may have won this twice in the last three years, but that has been on
the other course and has already admitted that his game is rusty. Since the
birth of his son, Westwood has had other things on his mind and that has showed
in the past two weeks
Paul McGinley to beat Pierre Fulke
-125 @ Easybets
McGinley has been in great form with three top-10 finishes in his last four
starts, including 2nd last week at the B&H. Fulke for his part has failed to
rediscover his form of Australia and will struggle to find on a course that
needs length over his accuracy
Nick O'Hern to beat Pierre Fulke
-111 @ Ladbrokes
[2 units]
O'Hern has played little over the past two months, but improved over the weekend
to finish 35th at the B&H. A short hitter like Fulke, but would appear to
have his game under much greater control
Bernhard Langer to beat Retief
Goosen -110 @ BlueSq
Langer has a great record in his home
country and is the only person to have won this title three times. The last
round collapse can be discounted and a much better performance is expected this
week. Goosen did finish 2nd here two years ago and was 7th last week, but he had
struggled all year so some caution must be weighed against that results
Bernhard Langer to beat Padraig
Harrington -110 @ Surrey
Apart
from 2nd in the Portuguese Open, Harrington's form in the last couple of months
has been a little below par. Els even admitted in an interview today that his
playing partner, Harrington, was struggling with his game. Good enough to win
this event, but Langer looks the more likely top-5 candidate
David
Howell to beat Henrik Stenson -110 @ Stanley
An outright pick when the European
Tour was in Australia, Stenson delivered a belated maiden win last week at the
B&H. Very impressive throughout, but this was his maiden victory in his
rookie year so some fallout is expected. Howell, for his part, made it two
top-10 finishes in his last two events and looks to be a safer bet for a top-25
finish
Nick O'Hern to beat Henrik
Stenson -110 @ Intertops
[3 units]
As above, Stenson is expected to struggle this week and O'Hern should start to
display his form of the early months of this year
1st round plays:
Bernhard Langer to beat Angel Cabrera -125 @ Five Dimes
Nick O'Hern to beat Richard Green -120 @ Five Dimes
1st round update: 0-2-0 and -2.45 units
Yet more bad weather on the European Tour and it meant that the event started seven hours behind schedule. It took two days to complete the 1st round, but it made little difference to the plays: they both lost. Langer took three shots too many against Cabrera, while O'Hern too one to many against Green.
72-hole plays are evenly spread after the 2nd day with only Fulke definite to miss the cut and hand over two victories. Maybe the outrights will be the best plays this week. Campbell has a large lead over the field, but he will come back to them and with Els 3rd, Jimenez 5th and Cabrera 18th there is good reason to hope.
Update:
Started Saturday with two outright selections in the top-5, ended the day with none in the top-10! Els slipped to 26th and Jimenez to 13th. Cabrera is 17th, so maybe two of them have an outside chance of a place finish. Just as bad with the 72-hole plays. Three matches were decided at the cut and two were winners: McGinley and Fulke both recorded large wins over Fulke, but Howell also missed the cut and lost to Stenson by a large margin also. With 18 holes to play, all four remaining 72-hole plays are losing, though at least the large plays are close. Els trails Westwood by two, Langer trails Goosen by nine and Harrington by ten and O'Hern trails Stenson by two.
4th round plays:
Paul McGinley to beat Phillip Price -123 @ Five Dimes
Nick O'Hern to beat Eduardo Romero -110 @ Five Dimes [3 units]
Final update: 1-0-1 and +3.00 units for the day; 4-5-2 and +3.25 units for the week
Leading the tournament and playing with Tiger was too much for Romero and he lost by seven shots to O'Hern, while McGinley and Price both tied with 69s. The remaining 72-hole plays finished 1-2-1, but at least losses were avoided on the 3-unit plays. Els beat Westwood by four shots and O'Hern and Stenson tied. The two losses were with the disappointing (again) Langer. He lost by seven to Goosen and by ten to Harrington.
Update on outright plays: 0-3 and -3.00 units
Two had threatened to finish in the top-5, but no-one came close at the end of the day. Jimenez finished 14th, Cabrera 20th and Els 28th.
