|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||||
Dubai Desert Classic
The European Tour latest two-week leg is the Middle East and also making the trip is Tiger Woods & Mark O'Meara, the former with rather a handsome appearance fee! The European Tour was the scene of Tiger's last victory, so maybe this will be the place where he kick-starts his season. Most of the European Tour elite make the journey this week - Monty, Westwood, Clarke, Harrington, Bjorn, Price and Fulke - so this will be no walkover.
The event returns to The Emirates golf club after a two-year break, but in that time they have spent even more on improving the course than they did on securing Tiger's appearance. No expense spared in that quarter! The result is a much tougher course than in 1998, but once again retaining the fantastic condition of the course in general and the greens in particular. The players with the best record in this event - including at the Creek, the other host course - have been Monty, McGinley, Norman and Els. So the emphasis on good ball-strikers, particularly from the fairway, is evident even before the course changes come under consideration.
With Tiger too short at 5/2, this week's picks are Monty, Clarke and McGinley. Monty has played this event every single year since 1992, during which time he has won this event on this course (1996) and has not shot a round over par here since 1994. He was extremely impressive in his opening event in Australia and was consistent and in contention throughout the whole of the Singapore Masters. With DAS offering my benchmark for an each-way play, there is also some insurance in case Tiger does roar again this week.
Darren Clarke does not have that good a record in this event, but he is traditionally a slow-starter to the season. He showed that when missing the cut at the South African Open. But he bounced back to beat Westwood, Nick Price and others to win the Dimension Data the following week. Very much a streak player, if he can maintain the momentum from that victory three weeks ago then he is another he can win this event outright and not be intimidated by Tiger's presence in the field.
The third choice, Paul McGinley, is not one for an outright win. His failure to convert contending into winning is famous, but what differentiates this event from others is that here he at least secures a place finish rather than merely a top-20 position. In the last two years at the Creek, he has finished 2nd and 3rd, while in his visits to this course he has achieved 6th (1997) and 5th (1993) place finishes. He avoided the Australian/Asian leg of the Tour and should come here refreshed and relishing the Desert conditions again.
Outright plays:
Colin Montgomerie to win 10/1 e.w. @ DAS
Darren Clarke to win 16/1 e.w. @ Surrey or Victor Chandler
Paul McGinley to win 66/1 e.w. @ Quickflutter
72-hole plays:
Peter Baker to beat David
Park -118 @ Easybets
Baker returns
to a course on which he has had two top-10 finishes and an 11th place in seven
visits. His good greens in regulation stats show why he should play well here
and they are far superior to those of Park's, for whom this will be his first
visit
Angel Cabrera to beat
Mathias Gronberg -111 @
William Hill
Cabrera is known for his long driving, but he does figure very highly
in the greens in regulation stats as well, something that Gronberg does not. He
played this course in 1998 and 1997 when he finished 40th and 10th; Gronberg
missed the cut on both those occasions as he has done on both visits to the
Creek. Definitely one to oppose in Dubai!
Paul McGinley to beat Roger
Wessels -118 @ Easybets
[2 units]
Wessels finished 17th in 1998 on this course, but apart from that he has
finished 65th in 1996 and missed the cut on his three other visits to Dubai.
There is no comparison with that record and McGinley's. With this being the 8th
consecutive week on the European Tour - across four continents - he should be
opposed this week
Ian Poulter to beat Justin
Rose -110 @ Surrey
Poulter was
impressive in finishing 3rd in Australia at the Greg Norman Invitational, Rose
was impressive in finishing 2nd twice in South Africa, but here he returns to an
event in which he has missed the cut on both occasions. To have played well in
his birth country is one thing, to transfer that form to another continent is
another and Rose is opposed this week
Mid-point update:
Just
one matchup is decided at the cut and it is a loss 
Both Baker and Park missed the cut, but Baker finished two shots behind in the
process. The other three look favorable though. Cabrera and Gronberg are tied on
8-under-par, while McGinley leads Wessels by six and Poulter leads Rose by one.
Very poor putting has meant Monty currently languishes in 38th place, while
Clarke has been even worse and lies 51st after 36 holes. The only saving grace
on the outrights is Paul McGinley who lies 4th, though he and the rest of the
field are some way behind the dueling Woods & Bjorn.
There
were 82 qualifiers for the weekend, so I presume they will be playing in 3-balls
tomorrow. If that is the case, only DAS will have matchups for the weekend
Hope they have some attractive offerings for us later.
In the past the rule on the European Tour has been that if 80 players make the cut, they play in three-balls. Not this week though! So a little late and a little surprised ...
3rd round plays:
Russell Claydon to beat Jean Hugo -111 @ DAS [3 units] [+125 @ Victor Chandler but ties lose]
Mathias Gronberg to beat Gary Evans -133 @ DAS [2 units]
Thomas Gogele to beat Trevor Immelman +125 @ Easybets [2 units]
3rd round update: 1-1-1 and -0.16 units
Split the plays as Gogele was a
disappointing five-shot loser to Immelman, but Gronberg beat Evans by six shots.
The 3-unit play was a dead heat as Claydon's failed to birdie the par-five last
hole and let slip a one-shot lead over Evans in the process 
The 72-hole plays still look good. Cabrera leads Gronberg by one, McGinley leads Wessels by nine and Poulter and Rose are tied. McGinley has a decent prospect of a place finish, currently lying in 5th place, while Monty did at least provide some hope of a 2nd place finish with a 65 that brought him within 3 shots of McGinley. No such hope from Clarke.
4th round plays:
Tony Johnstone to beat Anders Hansen +105 @ Intertops
Rolf Muntz to beat John Senden +100 @ Easybets
Final update: 1-1 and +0.00 units for the day; 3-5-1 and -1.55 units for the week
Split the final round plays as Muntz beats Senden by a shot and Johnstone trails home four shots behind Hansen. In the 72-hole plays, the two-unit play on McGinley wins as he beats Wessels by seven, but both Cabrera and Poulter fell behind in their matchups for the first time in the week today and that was how both finished. Cabrera finished in the top-10, but was still two shots behind Cabrera, while Poulter shot 75 to finish two shots behind Rose.
Update on outright plays: 0-3 and -3.00 units
McGinley had been in the top-5 all week long until a double-bogey on the ninth killed his momentum. He finished 9th, while Monty could not maintain yesterday's form and finished 21st. Clarke was 58th.
