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Dutch Open
The week after the British Open and it's back to the usual European Tour field. Not even John Huston who have been regular a competitor return. One week's link golf is enough for most of last week's field, though the surprisingly competitive Els does make an appearance. The event is typically the week after the British Open and produces quality winners who have a good record in the previous week's event as well. The event history may be deceiving as the event returns to Noordwijkse last year after six years at Hilversumsche. Previous history at Noordwijkse may be important, but rather impressive is Stephen Leaney's record of winning this event twice in the last three years on two different courses.
This is a true links course with sand dunes prominent and wind set to be much more of a factor than it was last week. Little danger of bunker-phobia continuing this week as there are not many of them on this course, but there are plenty of blind second shots. The course is short and has been reduced by 137 yards to 6,751 yards to make it a par-71. The 14th hole is now a demanding 464-yard par-4. But at this yardage it will need the wind to remain a force if it is not to be rendered defenceless.
The three outright selections are Ernie Els, Bernhard Langer and Ricardo Gonzalez. For one with back trouble, Els' performance last week was extremely impressive on a physically demanding course. He hasn't played in this event since 1994 when he finished 7th, but last week he looked the world-class player that he was and must go close against this week's field. With Surrey offering two points more than anyone else, it is worth the conservative play on the each-way bet.
To complete a list of supposedly-injured selections, Bernhard Langer is the next pick. He has an excellent record on this course. While finishing no higher than 15th at Hilversumsche, he has finished 2nd, 1st, 2nd in the last three times the venue has been Noordwijkse. Having finally brought his US form to Europe in the past three weeks, he looks a genuine title contender this week.
The play on Ricardo Gonzalez is more speculative, though he did come back from a poor start to finish 21st against a strong field in the Scottish Open and finished in the top-10 in the events beforehand. He rested last week and apart from being the longest-hitter in the field, he does have decent all-round stats and could emulate his compatriot, Angel Cabrera, who has a similar game and finished 3rd last year.
Outright plays:
Ernie Els to win e.w. 10/1 @ Surrey
Bernhard Langer to win 16/1 e.w. @ Victor Chandler
Ricardo Gonzalez to win 66/1 e.w. @ Victor Chandler and others
72-hole plays:
Sven Struver to beat Warren Bennett -110 @ Stanley
Stuver is a former winner of this
title - in 1997 when Bennett missed the cut in his appearance in this event.
Struver shot every round under par last year to finish 26th and while there is
not too much between them in current form, Struver gets the nod because of his
event form
Andrew Coltart to beat
Mikko Ilonen -111 @ Simon Bold
Ilonen may have finished 9th last
week, but he had only made the cut three times in thirteen previous Tour events.
Expect a reaction to last week's career finish and Coltart to win this by the
weekend
Barry Lane to beat Darren
Lee -111 @ Simon Bold
Lee may have had some decent finishes of late, but Lane's return to form is just
as noticeable. 9th in the Irish Open and 3rd in the Scottish Open, followed by
29th last week. All three against very high quality fields and another top-10 is
feasible this week
Adding:
Ricardo Gonzalez to beat Ian Poulter -110 @ Camelot
Poulter had been in great form until
the European Open when he finished last. Fully expect Gonzalez to finish in the
top-20 at least, whereas Poulter is too unpredictable and is therefore opposed
Mid-point update:
Doesn't get much better than this, if only it were Sunday! Three of the four matchups are decided at the cut and two are winners. Coltart beat Ilonen by eight and Gonzalez beat Poulter by eleven. The loss came with Struver who finished his tournament nine shots behind Bennett. In the remaining play, Lane leads Lee by two. Great position in the outrights. Gonzalez leads the event by a shot and at 66/1 this will be a long weekend! Langer and Els are also in contention, four and six shots back respectively and both are in the top-20.
Final update: 3-1-0 and +1.90 units
Barry Lane had a comfortable 10-shot win over Daren Lee at the end of the tournament to wrap up a good tournament. With two of three matchups winning at the cut, not a bad week in the Netherlands.
Update on outright plays: 1-2 and +8.00 units
Strong performance by Langer to come home in 30 and force a play-off which he won on the first hole against Bennett. Seals his Ryder Cup place and a decent profit on the week. The lead came two days too early for Gonzalez - he shot 75 on Saturday to fall out of contention, but finished strongly to end up just one shot out of a very profitable place win. Els needed 64 on the final day to jump to 12th overall.
