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Open de Madrid
The prize money on offer this week will be just over one-quarter of that provided last week, but at least it will be far more pleasant to playing in Madrid rather than East Scotland in October. Nevertheless, tension levels will still be high as this is the penultimate event of the year for those players struggling to hold onto their Tour cards. Past experience shows that while some may have flyers in the first few rounds, they inevitably fold under the pressure of the weekend. The victory of Jorge Berendt in the Cannes Open may suggest otherwise, but this is a far stronger field and a big-price winner is not expected.
Length is not an issue on this course. It is well above sea level so the ball flies further and the course measures less than 7000 yards. Instead, the course has been redesigned by Manuel Pinero to reward accuracy both off the tee and to the green with good course management paramount. It is therefore fitting that two of Padraig Harrington's three Tour wins have come on this course (1996 Spanish Open and last year's event).
The three selections for this event are Retief Goosen, Thomas Bjorn and Greg Owen. Goosen can wrap up the European Order of Merit title with a strong performance this week and there is little reason to expect otherwise. The South African has finished in the top-10 in his last three events and looks close to the form that captured him the US and Scottish Open titles in mid-summer. With a game that is ideal for this type of course, he looks a good prospect to secure the necessary top-6 position.
Bjorn is another short-price selection this week. But his good form was confirmed last week when as a selection, he produced a strong performance that saw him finish just two shots outside a top-5 spot. He is fresher than most in this week's field following his injury layoff and as a player who has already won on Spanish soil (1998 Spanish Open), he should also feature this week.
The third selection has yet to win on Tour and is hardly in the same class of player as the other two selections ... yet. But top-20 finishes in his last four Tour events - all with strong fields - cannot be ignored. Nor can a finish of 15th on this course last year and nor can top-20 positions in all the key Tour stats (including 3rd in green in regulation) bar putting. His putting stats have improved enormously in his last two events and he looks set for another fine event. Odds of 40/1 are available, but the extra place with Simon Bold is more appealing until he secures his breakthrough win.
Outright plays:
Retief Goosen to win 10/1 e.w. @ Simon Bold
Thomas Bjorn to win 14/1 e.w. @ Simon Bold
Greg Owen to win 33/1 e.w. @ Simon Bold
72-hole plays:
Thomas
Bjorn to beat Darren Clarke +110 @ Carib
Finishes of 24th and 32nd in his last
two strokeplay events are not impressive from Clarke. He has been known to lose
concentration when his game is not on-song and with only a very remote chance of
remaining in the Order of Merit race this week, he could once again fade out of
the event this week if he does not have a fast start
Paul
Casey to beat Angel Cabrera -111 @ Simon Bold
Cabrera is simply out-of-form. A best
of 28th since July is not the Cabrera of the first half of the season. Casey has
impressed many in this debut season and even won the Scottish PGA Championship.
He should build on a fine 5th place finish last week
Paul
Casey to beat Jose Maria Olazabal -115 @ Intertops
Olazabal's form is not as bad as
Cabrera's, but it is still not good enough to be competitive this week,
especially on a tight course. No top-10 finish since he won the French Open in
May and his record in Spain is not particularly impressive
David
Lynn to beat Gary Evans -110 @ Victor
Chandler [2 units]
A fine return to form of Lynn - top-20 finishes in his last three events - is
enough for him to get the nod ahead of Evans who was 10th in the German Masters,
but finished 64th two weeks ago and missed the cut at the weekend
David
Howell to beat Steve Webster -115 @ Intertops
A fine performance from Howell at the
Dunhill Links should carry him this week. He had good chances to take the lead
on the final day and looked to be swinging well. The big-hitting Webster has
been erratic in the past few months and does not have a good record on this
course
Miguel Angel Jimenez to beat
Jose Maria Olazabal -111 @ Simon Bold
or Ladbrokes
Solid form from Jimenez in recent
weeks and he may even feature at the Club de Campo. He finished 7th here last
year and has won this event on two occasions on a different course. With the
course set up to reward accuracy he should beat Olazabal most of the time
Jean
van de Velde to beat Mark McNulty -111 @ Simon Bold
With a best of 22nd on the European
Tour this season, McNulty is one to oppose. The both missed the cut at the
weekend, but the Frenchman displayed his good form in Cannes to secure his Tour
card for next season and he should play well on this tight course
Mid-point update:
Two of the seven plays are decided at the cut and they are split. Van de Velde missed the cut by one and lost to McNulty by two, while Lynn beat Evans by eight. With a poor position in most of the remaining plays, I am rather thankful for the extra 36 holes to right some scores. Bjorn trails Clarke by three, Casey trails Cabrera by two and Olazabal by three and Howell trails Webster by nine. The only remaining play ahead after 36 holes is Jimenez by four shots over Olazabal. Decent position in the outrights though. Goosen is 2nd, just once shot behind David Higgins who has yet to win on Tour. Less hope with Owen and Bjorn though, they lie 28th and 49th respectively.
Final update: 1-6-0 and -4.63 units
Lost
all five of the remaining plays 
Bjorn lost to Clarke by one and Jimenez lost to Olazabal by two. The rest were
trounced! Casey finished eleven behind Cabrera and eight behind Olazabal, while
Howell finished twelve shots behind Webster. Very disappointing that matchups
for this Tour have now gone into the red .... a far cry from the +120 units
profit on this Tour last year 
Update on outright plays: 1-2 and +4.25 units
Titanic, tense, very tense head-to-head with Webster, but thankfully the Goose came through a three-hole playoff to wipe out the losses on the matchups. Strong performances from the other two, but without any return. Bjorn finished one shot out of a place win, while Owen was only two shots further back.
