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Cisco World Matchplay
Played on the long and demanding Wentworth course and in less than ideal British weather, this 36-hole-per-round matchplay event is even more of a slog than the WGC Matchplay. With the format of four seeds and eight unseeded players, the benefit of being seeded and thus not playing until the quarter-finals is enormous. In the last seven years, all the winners have been seeded and only two of those fourteen finalists were unseeded. This week's seeds are Lee Westwood (1), Vijay Singh (2), Darren Clarke (3) and Colin Montgomerie (4).
This is rather too much of an obstacle for an upset to occur, in fact under normal conditions in May when the course hosts the Volvo PGA Championship, it is an event that produces very high quality winners. The winner will come from these four players, which is unfortunate as Retief Goosen can feel rather unfortunate to have been seeded behind Clarke when he is the US Open champion and Clarke has won just one match in three starts in this event. Both he and Padraig Harrington will have played close to 36 holes before facing their quarter-final opponents and it is much too long a road for these players to reach the final.
It is therefore by default that Vijay Singh is the outright selection this week. Westwood is hopelessly out-of-form and Darren Clarke does not have a good record in this event and will face Harrington in the 2nd round. Monty, for his part, has been playing better of late, but is still inconsistent. He will most likely face a tired Retief Goosen and should then the final from a semi-final against Bjorn/Scott/Westwood. Singh has played poorly on the PGA Tour recently, but his record in Europe and in this event is excellent and he should easily dispose of Mike Weir in the quarter-final on Friday to set up a meeting with Harrington or Clarke. None of the seeded players are at the peak of their games, but in matchplay Vijay warrants attention. If the matches pan out as expected, then the prop on expected finalists is also a good play. It was a 7/1 winner last year when Monty & Westwood reached the final, so maybe better odds can be found between now and Thursday, but 11/2 is still good value given the history of seeded players and finals.
Outright play:
Vijay Singh to win 9/2 @ Surrey, Ladbrokes or Centrebet
Prop:
Vijay Singh and Colin Montgomerie to contest the final 11/2 @ Bet365
1st round plays:
Adam Scott to beat Thomas Bjorn +120 @ Intertops
[2 units]
Bjorn has been troubled with a shoulder injury and has not played for the past
month since withdrawing from the European Masters as a precaution for the
Ryder Cup. In poor form anyway since mid-summer and no wins from two previous
starts, he is one to oppose this week. Scott lost a close match to Sergio
Garcia in the 1st round last year, but he will have benefited from the
experience
Parlay: Padraig Harrington to beat Nick Faldo
& Mike Weir to beat Seve Ballesteros -131 @ Sportingbet
[2 units]
Seve caused a huge upset in beating Monty in a matchplay event - the Seve
Ballesteros Trophy - last year, but it won't happen against Weir who will be
taking this match more seriously and is in decent form. The odds are too short
by themselves, so the play is doubled up with Harrington to beat Faldo. The
Irishman disappointed as an outright selection last week, but has a very good
matchplay record in all events and will win this trophy when he is seeded.
Barring a 3rd place finish on this course in May in the Volvo PGA
Championship, there is little reason to expect any resistance from Faldo
1st round update: 0-1-0 and -2.00 units
Lost the sole remaining play as Scott lost 4&3 to Bjorn. Scott was 8-under-par after 33 holes so he played as well as expected, Bjorn was just a lot better on his return to competitive golf than I allowed for. The other match was void as Weir pulled out of the tournament at the last minute.
2nd round plays:
Colin Montgomerie to
beat Ian Woosnam (-1.5 holes) -120 @ Victor
Chandler
[2 units]
As outlined in the preview, it is an enormous advantage to be seeded and thus
rested on the first day. This should particularly true against the veteran
Woosnam for whom nearly four rounds in two days around Wentworth will be an
extremely tiring affair. He has admitted he was very tired after today's match
and that Goosen had played poorly. Against a player who lives on the course,
he can expect a torrid time. The -170 on Monty with Camelot is the best
around, but I'll take the small handicap over 36 holes instead
Padraig
Harrington to beat Darren Clarke +130 @ Five
Dimes
Might be contradicting myself
somewhat here by opposing a seeded player, but Harrington only played 28 holes
today and was a staggering 12-under-par after those 28 holes when he beat
Faldo 9&8. The laser treatment he had on his eyes two weeks has obviously
paid dividends! With Clarke having won just one match in three years in this
event, he could be vulnerable tomorrow. At the widespread odds of -120,
Harrington would be a no-play, but Five Dimes' offering cannot be passed up!
2nd round update: 1-1-0 and -1.10 units
Split the plays as Harrington play extremely well again to defeat Clarke 5&4, but Monty was poor. He was trying out a new ball and consistently hit his approach shots too far. He lost to Woosnam by 4&3.
Semi-Final plays:
Lee Westwood to beat Ian Woosnam -140 @ Camelot
[2 units]
Woosie looked solid on the greens, but he was not the player who beat Goosen the
day before and that was a match that Monty would have normally won. Once again,
Woosie admitted to feeling drained after the match - "I felt very tired
this afternoon and lost my rhythm because of that. I found it hard work." -
and this should be 36 holes too far for the veteran. Westwood struggled off the
tee, but the rest of his game was very impressive and if he can keep it in play
tomorrow, he should win this with ease
Padraig Harrington to beat Sam Torrance (-3.5 holes) +100 @ Victor
Chandler
Vijay can be an infuriating
character. He rarely fulfils his potential and is very inconsistent. He should
have put enough daylight between him and Torrance in the morning to kill the
match. Harrington will not be so soft. Torrance started as favorite to beat Seve,
but beating Vijay was clearly a very emotional victory. Can't see Torrance
starting anything other than flat tomorrow and once Harrington gets a lead
tomorrow, he will be ruthless for the 3rd day in a row. I'll take the handicap
rather than the straight win (-400) on this basis
Semi-Final Update: 1-1-0 and -1.80 units
Split the plays again for a loss. Westwood was simply woeful and deserved to be beaten 10&9. Harrington had a good match with Torrance and was 2 down after 15 holes, but he is a ruthless player and ground out a 4&3 win.
Final play:
Padraig
Harrington to beat Ian Woosnam -140 @ Sportfanatik
[2 units]
Has been a disappointing event so far, but looking to finish well. Harrington
has looked the best player and has vindicated what I wrote about him for the 1st
round: "has a very good
matchplay record in all events and will win this trophy when he is seeded".
He looks set to win this trophy even earlier with a match against the unseeded,
inspired, but tired Woosnam.
Final update: 0-1-0 and -2.80 units; 2-5-0 and -8.70 units for the week
Harrington lost 3&2 in a very close match that swung from one player to the other. Both players played extremely well - Harrington shot 61 in the morning round - but opposing Woosie cost me for the 3rd time this week. Should have stuck to my original decision to leave this event alone!
