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North West of Ireland Open
Once again this event coincides with the US PGA Championship so a weak field is on view, though for the first time it is a "double badge" event as half the field comes from the main European Tour and the other half from the European Challenge Tour. A weak field just got weaker! As a result, some bookmakers, such as Victor Chandler, are not pricing up this event and all but one is not putting up 72-hole matchups. An event to be wary of, though with the layers concentrating on the week's major, there should be some value around.
Italians may have won this event on both occasions, though only once has it been held at this week's venue, but they do not feature in the outright selections. They are Gary Evans, Peter Hanson and Andrew Beal. Evans is the class player in this field and heads a wide-open market. He has finished in the top-20 in four of his last seven events and against very much stronger fields. An accurate player with a good short game, he may never have a better chance to secure his maiden Tour win.
Peter Hanson is a player in form. He won the Hamburg Classic Open on the Challenge Tour last month and secured his 2nd top-10 of the year on the main Tour last week in the Scandinavian Masters. A long-hitter and a good putter, his ability to perform on the main Tour will be valuable experience this week and he should feature.
Andrew Beal has split his time between the main and the Challenge Tours this season and while he has not troubled too many leaderboards, he did play well to finish 8th at the Great North Open on the main Tour. If he can repeat that form, he may well match his 3rd place finish on this course last year.
Outright plays:
Gary Evans to win 18/1 e.w. @ NetBetSports
Peter Hanson to win 33/1 e.w. @ William Hill [5 places option]
Andrew Beal to win 66/1 e.w. @ BetInternet
72-hole plays:
Gary Evans to beat Hank Kuehne -111 @ Simon Bold
[3 units]
Kuehne has shot 73-82 and 75-82 to miss the cut in the last two weeks on the
Challenge Tour, can't see him turning it around this week. Easy pick with the
headline outright selection
Des
Smyth to beat Jamie Donaldson -111 @ Simon Bold
[3 units]
After winning the Challenge Tour's Russian Open and finishing 4th in the
rain-wrecked Wales Open, a lot of expectation will be on Donaldson this week. I
can't see the young Welshman coping with it this week and expect a good week
from the Irish stalwart who has already won on the main Tour this year and
finished 13th in the British Open
Peter
Hanson to beat Mark Foster -111 @ Simon Bold
[2 units]
Another recent winner on the Challenge Tour - the Challenge Tour Championship -
but Foster has failed to make a mark when he played on the main Tour and this
may be a little daunting this week. Hanson, by contrast, has impressed on the
main Tour and is the selection
Jeremy
Robinson to Ashley Roestoff -111 @ Simon Bold
[2 units]
Roestoff has been making cuts in the past month, but has not been challenging
for the lead. Can't see him doing so this week - there is a big step-up in the
quality of opposition and this will be his 10th straight week on Challenge Tour
golf! Robinson is much fresher and comes off a top-20 finish at the Wales Open
Stephen
Scahill to beat Marcus Cain -111 @ Simon Bold
[2 units]
Scahill has struggled this season, but at least he has made four of his last
five cuts ... just! With the weakened field, he should progress to the weekend,
but Cain has struggled in his two starts on the European Tour. He had played
since the Australasian Tour and has shot 78-81 and 75-76 to miss both cuts by
quite some distance
Mid-point update:
Four of the five plays are decided at the cut and all four are winners! Evans beat Kuehne by four, Hanson beat Foster by nine, Robinson beat Roestoff by one and Scahill beat Cain by one. In the remaining play, Smyth trails Donaldson by six, but has another two days to make amends. Not such good news in the outrights. Beal missed the cut and Evans languishes in 67th place having made the cut on the mark. A great 2nd round by Hanson lifted him to 17th and he remains the only hope for a return on the outrights.
Final update: 4-1-0 and +5.67 units
Couldn't complete the sweep as Smyth lost to Donaldson by five shots in the only play to remain to the weekend. The other four all won at the cut, so a good event overall.
Update on outright plays: 0-3 and -3.00 units
Almost made a profits on the outrights, but Hanson played the last five holes in 1-over-par to fall out of the place spots and finish agonizingly in 6th place. Evans had a better weekend, but a poor event to finish 29th, while Beal missed the cut
