|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||||
Great North Open
The week after the US Open is hardly an ideal time for a European Tour event and the result has been a field lacking any of Europe's leading stars who played at Southern Hills, bar one, Lee Westwood. He returns to defend the title that was won five years ago in the inaugural event by Retief Goosen. The South African was never scheduled to play here despite what happened at the US Open and nor was Colin Montgomerie, the 1997 champion. Barring Westwood, it could be another non-household name winning on the European Tour this season.
Accuracy off the tee is important this week, particularly on the front nine and with smaller-than-average greens, the emphasis is on shot-making from the fairway. The list of winners above is testimony to that. The event has been plagued by poor weather - it was washed out completely in 1998 - and this year has been no different. The course will again play long and soft.
This will be Westwood's 8th event in as many weeks and the contrast with last week will be enormous. Even with a journeyman field, he is unbackable at the current odds. The selections this week instead are Greg Turner, Paul Casey and Sven Struver. Turner is certainly one of the best players on view this week and has solid all-round stats. While he failed to repeat his previous form at the Forest of Arden two weeks ago, he did finish 2nd in the French Open last month and has one victory this year in the Australian PGA Championship. Against a much weaker field, he should certainly repeat his top-10 finish of last year.
Paul Casey made quite an impression while at college in the United States and his debut via sponsors invitations in European events has also been impressive. Playing in four of the leading events on the Tour this year he has managed two 12th place finishes and one other top-30 spot. This week the opposition is much less formidable and he certainly fulfil a great deal of that promise this week.
The final pick is Sven Struver who like Turner, already boasts a 2nd place finish on European soil this season - the Algarve Portuguese Open. He was 14th in his last event, the British Masters, and has three Tour titles to his name. With decent course form - 11th in 1999 and in contention in 1998 before the abandonment - he looks a much better prospect than the odds suggest and would be a very profitable investment if he gained a top-5 finish.
Outright plays:
Greg Turner to win 33/1 e.w. @ Victor Chandler or BetSmart
Paul Casey to win 40/1 e.w. @ BetSmart
Sven Struver to win 80/1 e.w. @ NetBetSports
72-hole plays:
Peter
Baker to beat Scott Gardiner -111 @ Simon Bold
Gardiner was opposed when he made his
debut on European soil and he profitably missed the cut. No indications that
things should be any easier second time around, the North-East of England will
be cold and wet and far removed from playing conditions in Australia. Baker, for
his part, has been in decent form, finishing in the top-30 in three of his last
four events
Paul Casey to beat
Justin Rose +100 @ Sports.com
Decent price for one of the outright
picks to beat a consistent under-achiever. Rose did finish 2nd in two events in
his native South Africa, but has consistently struggled to put four good rounds
together in Europe and too often finishes outside the top-20 for such a bright
prospect
Andrew Coltart to beat Ian
Poulter -125 @ Ladbrokes
Poulter is a frustrating player. He
has won twice on the European Tour and again on the European Challenge Tour and
each time has played poorly before and afterwards. The same has happened after
his win in Morocco and barring a 9th place finish in the English Open, he had
not finished in the top-50 in seven events since. He did finish 14th last year,
but he remains one to oppose in the hope that this is not that flash-in-the-pan
week
Steve Webster to beat Fredrik
Jacobson -111 @ Ladbrokes
No great course form but Webster is
in good, if erratic, form at the moment. 5th at the English Open and 11th at the
Volvo PGA are good finishes in much better quality fields. Jacobson did finish
11th at the British Masters, but had previously missed his last four cuts and in
that form and with stats that are very poor, it is hard to see him repeating the
2nd place finish of last year
Greg
Turner to beat Ian Poulter +100 @ Paddy Power
In reasonable form and with a top-10
finish last year, the consistent Kiwi will always be favored against Poulter
Adding:
Paul Casey to beat Simon Dyson -115 @ Camelot
This has been a disappointing season
so far for Dyson. He has not made a cut on the Asian PGA Tour, a Tour that he
dominated last year, and has only one top-10 finish on the European Tour from 15
starts. He has yet to convince that he can fulfill his enormous promise on this
Tour and is opposed with one of the outright picks
Update:
Not a bad first day. Matchups stand 3-2-1 with both losing plays (Baker to Gardiner and Casey to Rose) behind by just one shot. Coltart leads Poulter by three, Turner leads Poulter by four and Casey leads Dyson by one while Webster and Jacobson are tied. In the outrights, Turner is 4th, Casey is 15th and Struver did not start.
2nd round play:
Brian Davis to beat Roger Wessels -113 @ Five Dimes
2nd round update: 1-0-0 and +1.00 units
Davis did enough to make the cut and beat Wessels by four shots for a nice win on day two. In the 72-hole plays, the good news is that they stand 4-2-0 at the cut, the bad news is that non oe of them were decided at the cut. The standings: Baker/Gardiner 1 down; Casey/Rose 3 up; Coltart/Poulter 5 up; Webster/Johansson 1 up; Turner/Poulter 2 down; Casey/Dyson 3 up.
A day of reversals in the outrights. Turner had a bad day to fall from 4th to 31st. Casey had a good day to jump from 15th to 3rd and just one shot behind the leaders. Plenty of hope yet for the week. No plays yet, will look at the full list for the two-balls in the morning.
3rd round plays:
Nick Dougherty to beat Mattias Nilsson +110 @ Eurobet [2 units]
David Carter to beat Marc Pendaries -137 @ Easybets
Paul Casey to beat Nicolas Vanhootegem -120 @ Sportingbet
3rd round update: 2-1-0 and +2.00 units
Almost a great day. Dougherty beat Nilsson by two and Carter beat Pendaries by four, but those damn ties at Euro books! Yes, Casey and Vanhootegem shot the same score which meant a lost wager with their three-way lines. Not so good elsewhere. The 72-hole plays fell back to 3-3-0: Baker/Gardiner 9 down; Casey/Rose 3 up; Coltart/Poulter 9 up; Webster/Jacobson 1 down; Turner/Poulter 2 down; Casey/Dyson 8 up. In the outrights, Casey fell back to 4th and four shots off the lead, while Turner remains out of contention in 44th place.
4th round plays:
Paul Casey to beat Darren Lee -120 @ Victor Chandler or Centrebet
Bradley Dredge to beat Andrew Beal +110 @ Stanley [2 units]
Final update: 2-0-0 and +3.20 units for the day; 9-3-0 and +8.09 units for the week
Nice final day sweep to round off a very good event. Dredge could afford a double-bogey at the last hole and still record a one-shot victory over Beal, while the Casey-Lee match had always been very close. A one-shot win in that match was rather fortunate. In the 72-holes, Webster closed with 66 to reclaim the lead over Jacobson, by three shots, and so those plays finished 4-2-0 for the week. The rest of the results: Baker/Gardiner 6 down; Casey/Rose 4 up; Coltart/Poulter 3 up; Turner/Poulter 5 down; Casey/Dyson 7 up.
Update on outright plays: 1-1 and +3.50 units
Casey had held the lead at one stage on the back nine alongside four others, so to lose the title by one shot is a little frustrating. Still a nice return on the week even though Turner disappointed to finish 31st.
