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Portuguese Open
Maybe it's because Victor Chandler are an official sponsor of the European Tour that capping these events is made so difficult! After four months of hopping from one continent to another, the European Tour finally arrives on European soil and at two courses than have not used for at least a decade! The last Portuguese event staged at Quinto da Lago was in 1990. And it doesn't end there ... next week's Open de France is held at Lyon which hasn't been used on Tour since 1994!
This week's event attracts a weak field as the major starting point for the European Tour - the Benson & Hedges International Open - is only two weeks away and then it is six weeks of quality events & fields leading up to the US Open. Of this week's field, only Monty and Harrington are in the top-50 of the World Rankings, so there are some very short prices. But that does mean some good value for other players.
The course is one of the best in Europe with many doglegs that require accuracy over length off the tee. With the list of previous winners on this course including Tony Johnstone, Warren Humphreys, Mark McNulty, Mike Harwood and Michael McLean, the importance of short, but accurate ball-hitting is apparent.
In contrast to this week's PGA Tour event, the European Tour outright plays are all available at decent odds and they all have a 'if only' story to tell about last week's event in Spain as well! They are Miguel Angel Martin, Andrew Coltart and Domingo Hospital. Martin provided two straightforward 72-hole matchup wins last week and opened his 2001 season in great form, featuring in the top-5 of the leaderboard for much of Sunday. It was only four bogeys in his last five holes that dropped him out of a warranted high finish. On the back of that performance and with his lack of length not disadvantaged on this course, he should once again feature.
The second pick is Andrew Coltart. It has been a frustrating time for Coltart; he had been plagued by poor putting since last year and had failed to break into the top-20 of any event this year, though his worst position had been 46th. But last week he appeared to have the putter working properly again and shot three rounds of four under 70. No-one else in the field matched that feat. It was only a horror 79 in the 3rd round that took him out of contention for the title. But he came back with a 69 on a windy final day and should come into this event both encouraged and determined following his showing last week. A chance for him to pick up some overdue Ryder Cup points.
Finally, the rank outsider is Domingo Hospital. Like Martin, he opened his 2001 account at the Open de Espana and like Martin he figured on the Sunday leaderboard as well. He eventually finished 9th with the only blot on an otherwise excellent week being the quadruple-bogey he had at the 348-yard 13th in the 2nd round. Eliminate the four shots dropped on that hole and he would have finished 2nd! Like Martin, he is not long off the tee, but has a good short game and will be encouraged by his showing last week. Might even sneak a top-5 this week!
Outright plays:
Miguel Angel Martin to win 40/1 e.w. @ Surrey or Victor Chandler
Andrew Coltart to win 40/1 e.w. @ Surrey
Domingo Hospital to win 125/1 e.w. @ William Hill [5 places option]
72-hole plays:
Ricardo Gonzalez to beat Peter Baker -111 @ Simon Bold
While Baker has missed his last four cuts, Gonzalez has posted decent finishes
in both the Middle East and South America in his last four events, including one
top-10 and three top-25s. Not sure that the course fully favors the big-hitting Argentinean,
but Baker looks opposable every week at the moment.
Andrew Coltart to beat
Warren Bennett -111 @ William Hill
Bennett finished 16th ahead of Coltart last week, but with the exception of the
Singapore Masters he looks like a player will frequently contend, but not
seriously challenge. With Coltart tipped as a outright play this week following
his performance in Spain, he should see this one home
Richard Green to beat Brett
Rumford -120 @ Victor
Chandler
Three starts on the European Tour, two missed cuts and one 2nd place finish.
Sums up Brett Rumford quite well! The very accurate driving of Richard Green is
tipped to be more reliable and more suited to this course and he should finish
in the top-25 and win this matchup by Friday night
Justin Rose to beat Brett
Rumford -110 @ Surrey
It has been two encouraging performances from Rose in the past two weeks: he finished
48th in Morocco because of a final round 77, but secured a top-10 spot in Spain
last week. He may not been the most accurate of drivers, but on current form he
could secure another leaderboard position and should definitely make the cut
Mid-point update:
No attractive lines from Five Dimes so just the 72-hole plays so far this week. Of these, one is decided at the cut and is a winner. Baker made it five cuts in a row to hand a twelve-shot victory to Gonzalez. In the other plays, Coltart shot an excellent 69 in the worst of the conditions to salvage his tournament after a disastrous 1st round; he lies three shots behind Bennett, Green lies one shot behind Rumford and Rose is one shot ahead of Rumford. Very close with 36 holes to play.
Not much joy with the outrights. Both Coltart and Martin carded 75s on the first day from which Coltart made the cut, but Martin withdrew. Hospital did make the cut and joins Coltart in 45th place, six shots out of a top-5 spot.
They're playing in three-balls again over the weekend so unlikely to be any further plays. Of Five Dimes' offerings for the 3rd, Lynn over Boult is appealing, but not at -140.
4th round plays:
Stephen Scahill to beat Sven Struver -110 @ Five Dimes
Phillip Price to beat Brett Rumford -140 @ Five Dimes [2 units]
Final update; 1-1-0 and +0.90 units for the day; 2-4-0 and -1.51 units for the week
Managed to pick the winner at least, just not in the outrights. Price shot 64 to beat Rumford by five shots and win the tournament by two. Scahill had the lead over Struver for much of the day, but not when it counts. After 18 holes, he finished two shots behind the German. The remaining 72-hole plays all returned a blank. Coltart lost by three to Bennett, Green lost to Rumford by three and Rose lost to Rumford by seven.
Update on outright plays: 0-3 and -3.00 units
Coltart was best placed in 27th, but after his opening round he did very well just to make the cut. Hospital started brightly, but got worse throughout the week and finished 67th, while Martin withdrew on the 2nd day.
