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Scottish PGA Championship
The top-12 on the Ryder Cup points table may be in Akron, Ohio, but eight of the next eleven on the list are at Gleneagles this week in an effort to dislodge Phillip Price from 10th place in the table. There were dramatic movements in the last two weeks on the US Ryder Cup table, so there is every reason to expect the same in Europe. It gives the event a much-needed boost. Last year it also coincided with the WGC-NEC Invitational and the field was poor with the absence of Ryder Cup points on offer. The field is much better this year and a marked improvement on last week's "double badge" event.
They play the renamed 'PGA Centenary Course' at the Gleneagles Hotel, which was designed by Jack Nicklaus and opened in 1993. No surprise then that there are five par-fives and the fairways are generous! Mind you, last year's winner, Pierre Fulke, is a very short hitter, but the course was dry and this year it is not. Definitely one of the most scenic locations for a golf course, this contender for the 2009 Ryder Cup venue is exposed so the winner will be a good player of wind, a necessity for links golf.
The three selections for this event are Paul Lawrie, Stephen Leaney and Steve Webster. Lawrie will be disappointed to have missed out on vital Ryder Cup points with his missed cut last week, but he can overtake Price with a win at Gleneagles this week. If anything, not playing in the heat and humidity of Atlanta at the weekend should be a benefit for this week and hopefully he can regain his European Tour form which brought him a losing playoff spot for the Wales Open two weeks ago. A very player of links course and wind, if not too fatigued by the trip to Atlanta, he looks a good contender this week.
Leaney is another, like most of the Australian contingent, good player in wind. He won the 1998 and 2000 Dutch Opens around the links courses of Noordwijk and Hilversum and finished 9th in that event in his last outing. Compared to his tired European colleagues who are chasing Ryder Cup points, he should refreshed and looked a good prospect even before his 40/1 price became available.
Steve Webster is not a links specialist, though he did secure a top-20 finish at the Dutch Open last month. He is rather one to take advantage of the five par-fives as one of the longer hitters on Tour. He is also in great form and without the pressure of Ryder Cup qualification on his mind. He has finished in the top-10 in three of his last eight events, including 8th at his last event, the Wales Open, two weeks ago, and has finished outside the top-30 just once in that run. A long-hitter, no Ryder Cup pressure and fresh from a week's rest, he looks a decent contender for a top-5 spot.
Outright plays:
Paul Lawrie to win 16/1 e.w. available generally
Stephen Leaney to win 40/1 e.w. @ Sporting Odds
Steve Webster to win 40/1 e.w. @ BetSmart
72-hole plays:
Jamie Donaldson to beat Mark Pilkington -110 @ Surrey
Two players in great form at the
moment. Donaldson won the Russian Open on the Challenge Tour three weeks ago and
followed that with 4th at the Wales Open and 17th last week at the North West of
Ireland Open. Pilkington, for his part, has finished 4th and 3rd in those last
two events. Just feel that Pilkington's swing will now start to tighten. He had
missed 13 of his previous 19 cuts this season and he is agonizingly close to
that coveted Category 7 exemption for next year. It applies to the top 117
members on this year's Order of Merit and he has suddenly jumped to 122nd but
the fields starting to get much stronger from now until the end of the season.
Donaldson is assured of a Category 10 exemption for next year as he lies 3rd in
the Challenge Tour Order of Merit and the top-15 qualify. He can play without
pressure which is something that Pilkington cannot any longer.
Peter
Hanson to beat Mark Pilkington -111 @ BetInternet
[2 units]
Same applies for this matchup. Hanson lies 4th in the Challenge Tour Order of
Merit and will seek to build on his finishes of 9th in the Scandinavian Masters
and 6th last week to attract sponsors' attention rather than play for his Tour
survival
Greg Owen to beat Nick
Dougherty -111 @ Sporting Odds
Dougherty has had some decent
finishes on Tour this year, but this is his first start since that memorable
victory in the Walker Cup and some fallout is expected. Owen has had a steady if
unspectacular season, making 18 of 21 cuts, and did finish in 11th place in the
Scottish Open last month. He should again finish in the top-30 and that should
be enough against Dougherty
Olle
Karlsson to beat Patrik Sjoland -111 @ Simon Bold
[3 units]
It has been a couple of months since Karlsson finished in the top-5 at the
Benson & Hedges International and the English Open, but he should still
retain enough form to easily make the cut. That is something that Sjoland has
failed to achieve in his last five events and is easily opposed
Paul
Lawrie to beat Justin Rose -130 @ Camelot
Rose has continually failed to break into the top-30 since
qualification for the Ryder Cup became a possibility. He has been successfully
opposed for the past few months and in a matchup with the top selection for the
title, he is retained as an oppose again. The only concern here would be fatigue
from Lawrie's trans-Atlantic jaunt
Mid-point update:
Two plays are decided at the cut: one win, one loss. Owen lost to Dougherty by three, while Karlsson beat Sjoland by eight in the week's 3-unit play. In the rest, Donaldson leads Pilkington by one, Hanson leads Pilkington by three and Lawrie trails Rose by six. Need these to at least stay as they are to cover some very poor outright plays. Both Leaney and Webster missed the cut, while Lawrie made it on the mark and so is a long way off the leaders.
Final update: 3-2-0 and +3.59 units
Two of the remaining matchups won as Hanson beat Pilkington by eight shots in the 2-unit play and Donaldson beat Pilkington by four. Lawrie was the loser, but only just. He finished one shot behind Rose. A decent return on the matchups to at least offset some very poor outright plays.
Update on outright plays: 0-3 and -3.00 units
But for an opening 75, Lawrie would have been a real contender this week. Instead he finished in 18th place and seven shots behind the winner, Paul Casey. Leaney and Webster missed the cut.
