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Scottish Open
The strongest event of the week by quite a margin. The defending champion, Ernie Els, may have withdrawn with a bad back, but that still leaves four of the top-10 in the world rankings competing at Loch Lomond this week. On many occasions the week before a major sees a poor field as the top players have their minds on other things, but not this week. "One of the five best courses in the world" is how Ernie Els describes this course and its greens have all been reconstructed to make that better putting surfaces.
Like every great course, each hole demands full attention and course management is paramount. There are rewards for attacking golf, but the penalties are just as severe. For the more conservative, the driving areas are fairly generous and a good all-round game is required for a good performance. This is a shot-maker's course on which the best players will come to the fore. It's five-year roll-call of winners reads: Thomas Bjorn, Tom Lehman, Lee Westwood, Colin Montgomerie and Ernie Els. With a sense of normality returning to the European Tour in the past fortnight, it is hard to see anyone less winning this week.
That is reflected in this week's rather short-priced selections: Sergio Garcia, Tom Lehman and Jesper Parnevik. Garcia is finally looking like his will realize his potential. Two wins in four events and looking the no.1 challenger to Tiger Woods. He hasn't played in Europe since the Spanish Open, but it was his form after that event that has caught all the attention. He finished 2nd on his last visit to Loch Lomond, so as long as the winds don't blow too strong, he does have a favourite's chance.
For Lehman, this will be a welcome return to a course on which he has prospered. A winner in 1997, as well as 9th in 1998 and 2nd in 2000 in his three visits makes very impressive reading. His form on the PGA Tour has been respectable with a 3rd place finish last month at the St Jude Classic, but the return to Britain and the prospect of winning this title and next week's for the second time should raise his game significantly.
The final pick could win this event at a canter or be heading for Lancashire at the weekend. Parnevik is that unpredictable - he hasn't played since the US Open, but he is presumably gearing himself up for for the next four weeks' golf which will include this event, the British Open and the Scandinavian Masters and will hopefully secure his place in the European Ryder Cup team by right. He has been in decent form this year, with a win at the Honda Classic and a top-10 at the St Jude Classic, and had a top-5 finish on this course two years ago. It may be the second week that the winner celebrates with a cigar!
Outright plays:
Sergio Garcia to win 11/1 e.w. @ NetBetSports
Tom Lehman to win 20/1 e.w. @ BetInternet or Sports.com
Jesper Parnevik to win 33/1 e.w. @ Victor Chandler
72-hole plays:
Jesper
Parnevik to beat Thomas Bjorn +100 @ Surrey
Outright pick and tipped to have a
great week, Parnevik also figures heavily in the match bets. Bjorn has been
improving of late and returns to the course as a former winner. Should finish in
the top-20, but will take Parnevik at dog odds as I can't see him out of the
top-20 either
Jesper Parnevik to
beat Michael Campbell -110 @ Sportingbet
[2 units]
Strong opening round from Campbell last week, but he fell away thereafter and
has not secured a top-10 finish since May. Too erratic at the moment and is
opposed with Sweden's finest
Jesper Parnevik to beat Lee Westwood
-111 @ BetInternet
[2 units]
Westwood didn't even have one good round last week, but at least he made the cut
for the first time in three events. He may have a good record on this course,
but he also did at the K Club and it counted for little. One to oppose for the
time being
Greg Chalmers to beat
Richard Green -111 @ Ladbrokes
Battle of the Aussie lefties with the
PGA Tour-based Chalmers getting the nod. On the course most relevant for this
week, Chalmers missed the cut at Foto Island to weeks. He has also missed the
cut i three of the last four years here. In good form otherwise, but does not
look suited to this week and improved Chalmers should prevail
Nick
Faldo to beat Greg Norman -111 @ UKBetting
[3 units]
While Faldo does struggle on the PGA Tour, he has been playing much better in
Europe - 3rd in the Volvo PGA Championship on his last visit - and has a very
good record on the course, including a top-10 finish last year. I expect a good
week from Faldo and a lack of competitiveness from Norman who hasn't finished in
the top-25 of an event since the Bay Hill Invitational and lacks the desire that
Faldo has retained
Nick Faldo to
beat Dean Robertson -110 @ Surrey
A top-10 finish last week from
Robertson, but he is still struggling with consistency. On a course on which he
has only an average record, he is opposed with Faldo
Sergio
Garcia to beat Colin Montgomerie -110 @ Surrey
The headline matchup of the week and
in line with the outright selections, Garcia gets the nod. Monty may have a
great record on this course, but last week's performance only confirmed that
despite his victory in the Irish Open, he is still a long way from his best and
the consistency he desires.
1st round play:
Richard Green to beat Greg Norman +100 @ Five Dimes [3 units]
1st round update: 0-0-1 and -3.00 units
Disappointing loss to Norman, but after weeks of rain-affected tournaments and 1st rounds not being completed on the PGA Tour, Tom Lehman and others seem to have brought it over to Europe! Green lost by three to Norman who completed his round this morning. Norman is also opposed in the other 3-unit play this week, so let's the cold, wet Scottish weather has an effect on him.
The 72-hole plays stand 4-2-1 after 18 holes: Parnevik/Bjorn 3 down; Parnevik/Campbell all square; Parnevik/Westwood 1 up; Chalmers/Green 1 up; Faldo/Norman 2 down; Faldo/Robertson 3 up; Garcia/Montgomerie 1 up. All three outright selections are not out of the tournament, but have some distance to make up to reach Goosen whose iron play was superb yesterday. Back tomorrow morning with 3rd round plays; nothing for the 2nd round in these conditions.
Update:
Two of the seven 72-hole plays are decided at the cut and both are winners. Parnevik beat Westwood by four and Chalmers beat Green by nine. Things can only improve with the other plays though. Having been in a good position after 18-holes, the 72-hole plays deteriorated to 2-5-0 after 36 holes but at least the two plays ahead were decided there and then. The standings in the other five: Parnevik/Bjorn 5 down; Parnevik/Campbell 1 down; Faldo/Norman 4 down; Faldo/Robertson 1 down; Garcia/Monty 1 down. Very close and very easy to change this situation around. Some prospect of a return on the outright plays. Lehman lies 6th, Garcia 16th and Parnevik 31st at the mid-point.
Back with 3rd round plays in the morning.
Update:
Nothing of interest in the 3rd round, but at least the 72-hole plays bounced back on day three. After 54 holes, the 72-hole plays stand 2-2-1: Parnevik/Bjorn 1 down; Parnevik/Campbell 8 up; Faldo/Norman 1 down; Faldo/Robertson all square; Garcia/Montgomerie 1 down. Very close and could easily improve today. Two chances of a return from the outright plays. Parnevik lies 9th, just one shot out of a top-5 place and Garcia lies two shots back in 11th. Lehman dropped from 6th to 31st on day three.
4th round plays:
Greg Chalmers to beat David Carter -125 @ Eurobet
Anders Hansen to beat Colin Gillies -138 @ Eurobet
Miguel Angel Jimenez to beat Richard S. Johnson -133 @ Centrebet
Final update: 2-1-0 and +0.67 units for the day; 7-4-0 and +4.57 units for the week
Decent final day with a profit on the 4th round plays and an improvement in the 72-hole plays. Chalmers beat Carter by two and Hansen beat Gillies by four. The loss of the day was Jimenez by two shots to Johnson. The 72-hole plays finished 5-2-0 for the week, with the scores on the remaining plays: Parnevik/Bjorn 4 down; Parnevik/Campbell 11 up; Faldo/Norman 9 up; Faldo/Robertson 2 down; Garcia/Montgomerie 2 up.
Update on outright plays: 0-3 and -3.00 units
Once again, a failure to convert a decent position. Lehman was 6th after two rounds and fell back in the 3rd; he recovered to finish to 14th; Parnevik was 9th after three rounds, but never looked like gaining a top-5 position despite finishing 8th. Garcia finished 14th.
