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Volvo Masters
The final event of the year for the European Tour is a gathering of the top-66 players on the Tour in southern Spain. The field is comprised of the top-55 on the current Order of Merit, the last five winners of this event and six invitees. The Order of Merit title may have been decided, but there is plenty of prestige and money to be had from winning this important event. The roll-call of winners is impressive with last year's winner, Pierre Fulke, being the biggest outsider to win this event (50/1) in its 13-year history.
Since the event moved from Valderrama to Montecastillo, the winners have been Jimenez, Clarke, Westwood and Fulke. This will be no putting contest where a ridiculously low final round score can produce a surprise winner. This is a course for good ball-strikers. In 1998, the top-7 finishers were all placed in the top-11 of that season's greens in regulation stats. The weather has played an important effect in the other years - it was shortened to 54 holes in 1997 and rain has a been a feature in the last two years - but it is still clear from the course compatibility stats that it is good ball-strikers who dominate. This may seem surprising as much is made of the wide fairways and little rough on this Jack Nicklaus-designed course, but the big hitters have not prospered on this course - the course is a decent test of golf and needs to be at a fraction over 7000 yards - and this looks set to continue with the weather forecast being for dry conditions.
The three selections this week are Retief Goosen, Colin Montgomerie and Peter O'Malley. Can't see any reason not to stay with the Goose who won the Open de Madrid to secure the Order of Merit title and maintain his run of top-10 finishes in October. He may have wobbled when winning this title and the US Open and in losing the Trophee Lancôme, but he consistently getting into contention and winning more than most. A runner-up in 1999, he can cap an excellent season with another strong showing this week.
Monty is a player who looks past his prime, too easily frustrated by his game these last two seasons, but he cannot be written off at all. He has won twice this season already - the Irish Open in July and the Scandinavian Masters in August - and looked to be playing well on his last outing in Dunhill Links Championship, remember he has never been a good player of links courses, so a top-5 finish was a good achievement. His game is much more suited to inland courses of this variety where he has recorded sub-par rounds on all but one occasion since the event came to Montecastillo in 1997. If he wins this week, he should finish 2nd in the Order of Merit and that is not really indicative of a player past his prime.
The final selection was a 50/1 winner earlier in the season - at the English Open - and he retains those odds for this event as well. He has proved himself to be one of the most consistent players on Tour, he finished in the top-20 of every event bar one - 29th at the Scandinavian Masters - since the Dutch Open in July and finished 5th on his last appearance, the Dunhill Links Championship. He is much less likely to win this week than at the Forest of Arden because of the quality of the field, but he does have a fine record on this course - 5th-4th-10th in the years 1997-1999 - and if the winds blows, he should be able to reproduce that form again.
Outright plays:
Retief Goosen to win 12/1 e.w. @ Heathorns
Colin Montgomerie to win 16/1 e.w. @ Heathorns
Peter O'Malley to win 50/1 e.w. @ Sportingbet
72-hole plays:
John
Bickerton to beat Mikael Lundberg -111 @ Simon Bold
[3 units]
Complete mismatch. Bickerton has finished in the top-25 in three of his last
four events and has played in this event before. Lundberg is here because of
three top-10 finishes at the start of the season but has made the cut just four
times in his last twelve events
Peter
O'Malley to beat Michael Campbell +100 @ Victor
Chandler
Both have good course form, but only
O'Malley is in form. Campbell has played just four times since the US PGA
Championship, missing the cut twice and having only one good tournament - 19th
at the German Masters
Roger Wessels
to beat Soren Hansen -111 @ Simon Bold
Similar contrast in form between
these two. Wessels has finished in the top-10 in two of his last four events and
finished 7th last year. Hansen finished 65th in the weak Open de Madrid last
week, it was the first cut he had made in four starts
Fredrik
Jacobson to beat Gregory Havret -111 @ Simon Bold
Standard play against a maiden Tour
victor of the previous week. Enhanced by the fact that Havret was favorite to
lose his Tour card until last week and Jacobson has two top-10 finishes in his
last four starts and on this course last year
Paul
Lawrie to beat Ian Poulter -110 @ Surrey
[2 units]
Find it hard to back the very erratic Poulter. He contends or he misses the cut
- two top-15 finishes and three missed cuts in his last five starts. Have to
side with the solid Lawrie who fully deserved to win the Dunhill Links
Championship even though that putt from the Valley of Sin was outrageous (and
costly!) and has a good record on this course
Paul
Lawrie to beat Adam Scott -110 @ Sports.com
Siding with Lawrie again to beat
Scott who has largely disappointed since July. He has not been missing cuts in
Europe, just not contending with the same degree of consistency as in the
mid-summer
Paul McGinley to beat Ian
Poulter -133 @ Easybets
Were McGinley able to close out
events, he would be considered for outright plays, but he can't. He won the
Wales Open because it was reduced to 36 holes, but that said, he has been
playing some of his best-ever golf this season and fully deserved his place in
the Ryder Cup team. Top-10 in his last three starts, he looks good to continue
that run and beat the erratic Poulter
Paul
McGinley to beat Lee Westwood -115 @ Intertops
Definitely a season to forget for Westwood and the end will not come soon
enough. If he shoots sub-70 in his first round he might remain focused and
battle with his swing for a decent finish. If he does not, he should have an
early tee-time on Sunday and be out of Spain before the leaders tee off
Adding:
Paul McGinley to beat Raphael Jacquelin -125 @ Camelot
This has been an unbelievable year
for the Frenchman. From struggling to keep his Tour card for three years, he is
currently 29th in the Order of Merit and improved his scoring average by 1.5
shots. But being matched with McGinley is a big step up in class. McGinley has
beaten Jacquelin in their last three common events and looks the more genuine
title contender this week
Final update: 7-2-0 and +7.90 units
Weather-disrupted
event shortened to 54 holes, so very thankful to on the right side of most of
matches in those circumstances. But none of them were really very close. The
results: Bickerton/Lundberg 4 up; O'Malley/Campbell 9 down; Wessels/Hansen 3 up;
Jacobson/Havret 7 up; Lawrie/Poulter 7 up; Lawrie/Scott 8 down; McGinley/Poulter
16 up; McGinley/Westwood 17 up; McGinley/Jacquelin 13 up 
Update on outright plays: 0-3 and -3.00 units
Cancelled out the profitable matchup plays with a blank on the outrights. Monty gave up his top-5 position with a drive into the water on the last hole - he finished a shot out of a place finish in 7th place. Goosen was a shot further back in 10th, though O'Malley had a very poor event and finished 59th.
