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Volvo PGA Championship
A top class event and a top class field, this is a classic golf event in the middle of a rich vein of quality tournaments on the European Tour. Monty has won this event for the past three years and will hope to reach Faldo's record of four wins. He is not the only one aiming for that record: Langer has also win this event three times. This is an event and a course which brings to the fore the best players so a big price winner is not on the agenda this week!
The event also sees the return of some the Tour's best players of the past decade, Vijay Singh and Ernie Els, both of whom have excellent records on this course when it is used for the Cisco World Matchplay each October. The damp conditions of those events will be replicated this week as the course is reported to be playing long through drying out after a very wet winter. Long-straight hitting is important, but above all, this is a shot-maker's course and excellent greens in regulation stats are the hallmark of all previous winners.
The three outright selections this week are Vijay Singh, Retief Goosen and Nick O'Hern. With Els evidently affected by the death of his grandmother last week, Westwood affected by the birth of his son, Monty affected by a lack of confidence on the greens and Clarke affected by everything but the task at hand, the stage is left virtually empty for Singh to win this at a canter! He won the Matchplay here in 1987 and his games fits the bill perfectly this week. With the start of this event taking place on Friday this week, the transatlantic flight should not affect his game and he comes into this event in decent form having scored seven of his eight rounds in the 60s in the last two weeks, but without be able to buy a putt! Putting is of lesser importance on the European Tour and on this course in particular. Very difficult to see him outside the top-3.
Retief Goosen is another who just can't buy a putt at the moment. He has finished 7th and 14th in the last two weeks and seems to have his old swing back again. Generally acknowledged to have the best swing on Tour, he is one of the best players from tee to green, but doesn't win enough times because he is frankly ordinary with the flat blade. As stated above, this is of lesser importance on this course and with finishes of 4th and 7th in the last two years, that is ample proof.
Finally, Nick O'Hern was a profitable pick in the matchups last week and clearly looked to have regained his form of earlier in the year on the Australasian Open. He doesn't fit the bill of Singh and Goosen as being powerful drivers of the ball, but he does rank high in the greens in regulation stats and is currently 3rd in scoring average on the European Tour this year. With an excellent 65 to lead the event last year after the first day - he eventually finished 11th - this should be a welcome return for the young Australian and he could easily improve on that number.
Outright plays:
Vijay Singh to win 10/1 e.w. @ Surrey
Retief Goosen to win 33/1 e.w. @ Bet247
Nick O'Hern to win 66/1 e.w. @ Ladbrokes or Coral Eurobet [5 places option]
72-hole plays:
Ernie
Els to beat Lee Westwood -135 @ Five
Dimes
While Westwood is rusty and not
completely concentrating on his game, Els should excel on this course provided
he can put the family bereavement behind him. He has finished in the top-4 in
his last three visits and has an excellent record in the World Matchplay here
Peter
Lonard to beat Pierre Fulke -111 @ Simon Bold
Lonard secured his third top-20 in
four events in Germany last week and a repeat performance would be more than
enough to defeat the Swede who has struggled to make the cut since the Tour
moved out of Australia
Mathias
Gronberg to beat Gary Orr -111 @ Simon Bold
Orr is definitely one to oppose at
the moment. He did make the cut last week to break the run of missing every one
since the Tour arrived in Europe, however he still finished no higher than 63rd!
Gronberg has hardly been topping the leaderboards, but is much more likely to
make the weekend at the moment
Paul
Lawrie to beat Gary Orr -118 @ Easybets
The same holds with Lawrie. His
finishes of 10th, 19th and 37th in the last three weeks are hardly spectacular,
but should easy make the weekend and defeat Orr
Vijay
Singh to beat Colin Montgomerie -110 @ Carib
[2 units]
Top-ranked players against the winner of this event for the past three seasons.
This one should definitely last until Sunday! But Monty has admitted that his
inability to hole putts is putting a lot of strain on the rest of his game and
while he will surely finish in the top-10, I can't see him winning this event
again
Vijay Singh to beat Lee
Westwood -125 @ Paddy Power
[3 units]
If Monty should at least challenge Singh until Sunday, I can't see the same from
Westwood. HE showed last week that when things were not going his way, he didn't
have the desire to grind out a damage-limitation round. If he hits the front
early, he may have a chance, but otherwise look for him to fade away over the
weekend
1st round plays:
Vijay Singh to beat Colin Montgomerie -125 @ Five Dimes [3 units]
Ernie Els to beat Lee Westwood -127 @ Five Dimes [2 units]
1st round update: 1-0-1 and +2.00 units
Huge slice of luck when Monty took 8 on the par-5 17th hole to surrender a four-shot lead! The match finished a tie, while Els ran out a three-shot winner against Westwood. Similar situation in the 72-hole plays. After 18 holes, three are ahead and three are tied. Els leads Westwood by three, Gronberg leads Orr by three and Lawrie by three; the rest are tied. Not much joy from Singh and Goosen in the outrights so far, but O'Hern is currently 3rd.
2nd round plays:
Vijay Singh to beat Colin Montgomerie -120 @ Five Dimes [2 units]
Darren Clarke to beat Padraig Harrington -110 @ Five Dimes
Miguel Angel Jimenez to beat Nick O'Hern -110 @ Five Dimes [3 units]
Eduardo Romero to beat Philip Price -130 @ Five Dimes [3 units]
2nd round update: 2-1-1 and -0.90 units
Small loss on the day as neither 3-unit play won. Jimenez and O'Hern tied, but Romero was very disappointing and lost by five shots to Price. The other two won though: Singh beat Monty by four and Clarke beat Harrington by six. At the cut, two of the six 72-hole plays are decided as Westwood misses the cut. It granted Els a four-shot win and Singh an eight-shot win. The rest don't look too bad either: Lonard trails Fulke by one, Gronberg leads Orr by one, Lawrie leads Orr by four and Singh leads Monty by four.
In the outrights, Goosen missed the cut, but with O'Hern 7th and Singh 14th, there's plenty of interest left in this late-finishing event. Just one play for tomorrow from Five Dimes' lines, will look at the two-ball lines when they come out in the morning.
3rd round play:
Vijay Singh to beat Colin Montgomerie -145 @ Five Dimes
Adding 3rd round plays:
Nick Faldo to beat John Senden -140 @ Intertops [2 units]
Paul Lawrie to beat Nicolas Fasth -110 @ BlueSq
3rd round update: 1-2-0 and -0.55 units
Faldo secured a two-shot win in the top play of the day, but not so with the other two. Monty edged out Singh by one shot with a stirring finish - surprising for one well-known for dropping his shoulders when out of contention - while Lawrie had 18 pars which was only enough to lose by three to Fasth.
Three of the four remaining 72-hole plays are ahead: Lonard by six over Fulke, Lawrie by one over Orr and Singh by three over Monty. Gronberg trails Orr by two shots in the other match. Interest waned in the outrights today. Singh jumped to 8th, but O'Hern's 78 took him out of the running.
4th round plays:
Ernie Els to beat Gary Orr -150 @ Easybets
Ernie Els to beat Vijay Singh +100 @ Five Dimes
Gary Emerson to beat Danny McGrane -105 @ Centrebet [2 units]
Final update: 1-2 and -0.50 units for the day; 10-6-2 and +6.87 units for the week
Els
let us down big time today! He birdied the difficult 1st hole, but everything
was downhill thereafter. His 76 was seven shots more than Orr's score and six
more than Singh's. A break-even day was salvaged though with Emerson's
convincing six shot victory over McGrane. The 72-hole plays finished 5-1-0 for
the week when Lonard beat Fulke by one, Gronberg beat Orr by two and Singh beat
Monty by four. The only loss was on Lawrie was finished three shots behind Orr.
After some difficult weeks on the European Tour a welcome return to form 
Update on outright plays: 0-3 and -3.00 units
Once again Singh failed to make birdies on either 17 or 18, the two easiest holes on the course and it cost us a place finish. He finished 7th, one shot out of a place spot. Not so good were O'Hern who faded badly after a great opening day and Goosen who didn't even have that one good day.
