Benson & Hedges International Open

Outright play (1.5 units):

Retief Goosen to win 14/1 e.w. @ Sports.com
A very early play, but don't expect this price to last long. Finished in the top-10 here last year on a course that suits his immaculate ball-striking and comes into the event in great form. Won his 3rd title of the year at the BellSouth Classic and came very close to winning the Masters. Should be at single figure odds on Thursday morning.

Adding (1.5 units):

Angel Cabrera to win 20/1 e.w. @ BetDirect
Very impressive record at the Belfry - 9th in 1999 and 2nd in 2000 - and equally impressive on the PGA Tour this year - four top-10 finishes from six starts. Cabrera has proved that he can play well on difficult courses and looks a good prospect if he can acclimatize to the chilly British weather.

Nick Faldo to win 66/1 e.w. @ Bet365 (available generally)
Very speculative as his last victory was over five years ago, but he has showed signs of his former self now that the distractions around his personal life have eased and he's been reunited with Fanny Sunesson. Started the season with three consecutive top-10s and was in contention in the Masters, eventually finishing 14th. Despite the selection of Cabrera, the course does not reward length, but shot-making and if those shoulders don't drop, then he should fare much better than a 66/ shot.

Matchup plays (1.5 units unless stated):

Nick Faldo to beat Niclas Fasth -111 @ BetandWin [3 units]
Maybe I would have laid off the outright play on Faldo had I seen so many enticing matchups with him, but as long as he has a good week ...  Opposing Fasth who has poor course form - none of six rounds under 70 - and has been in indifferent form this year bar his 2nd place finish to Els in Dubai. Could manage no better than a 75 in any round on his recent starts in the Tournament Players Championship and the Masters. The Ryder Cup will also be on the mind of this debutant.

Nick Faldo to beat Stuart Little -110 @ LuvBet [4.5 units]
Who? His namesake mouse is rather more famous. He has secured a 10th and 20th place finishes in two much weaker events in the last two weeks, but had previously made only one of six cuts this year. Has only played the Belfry once before - 1992 English Open - and broke par once in four rounds. Not expecting Little to make the weekend in such a big event.

Nick Faldo to beat Justin Rose -115 @ Intertops [4.5 units]
Poor course form - missed cut on only visit - and has played poorly in Europe so far - 56th, 17th and a missed cut. Everything else points to a good week from Rose - an excellent Southern Africa Tour season and a win in Japan last week - but traveling from the Canaries to Japan and back to chilly England in consecutive weeks is hardly ideal preparation, particularly following an overseas win.

Niclas Fasth to beat Stephen Leaney -110 @ LuvBet [3 units]
Opposing Leaney who has missed the cut on both his visits to the Belfry and has a poor record when beginning his European campaign. Should have checked that before I backed him last week! Fasth should make the weekend to secure the win here.

Nick O'Hern to beat Stephen Leaney -111 @ BetandWin
Two solid performances in the last two years here and an encouraging 11th place finish last week after a long layoff. Quite a contrast to Leaney.

Bernhard Langer to beat Ian Woosnam -120 @ Surrey
Twice a winner of this event, though not on this course, Langer is opening his European season after a solid spell on the PGA Tour and a 4th place finish at Harbour Town in his last event. Very dependable and sure to finish in the top-20. Not so sure with Woosie. Has played well at times this year, but has not been consistent and has played poorly on this course since this event has been staged here.

Mid-point update:

Faldo/Fasth WON by 6
Faldo/Little All Square
Faldo/Rose WON by 10
Fasth/Leaney WON by 2
O'Hern/Leaney WON by 7
Langer/Woosnam Trails by 3

Goosen 46th
Cabrera 13th
Faldo 37th

Looks like it's down to Faldo to make this a bumper week! Two wins and 7.5 units in the bag, he just needs to edge out Stuart Little now. Good week to oppose Leaney and if Cabrera can have a good weekend, this could be very sweet!

Final update:

Matchups: 5-1; +14.70 units

Faldo/Little WON by 4
Langer/Woosnam LOST (both tied)

Outrights: 1-2; +15.75 units

Goosen 19th
Cabrera 1st
Faldo 11th

Very nice!!! Everyone else tried their best to let Cabrera win and he did. Faldo completed a very profitable treble in his matchups and only finished 4 shots short of a top-5 finish. Just one irritation on the week: Langer having a poor back nine to lose the matchup by finishing in a tie with Woosie, but can't grumble when making 30 units profit on an event!