BMW International Open

Outright plays (1.5 units):

Thomas Bjorn to win 14/1 e.w. @ Sporting Odds, Victor Chandler, Sportingbet, UKBetting or Heathorns
Would generally look to oppose the players coming back from the NEC Invitational, but only Rose is in better form - and will not touch him at single-figure odds - and history is on the Dane's side. Two years ago, he returned from finishing 10th in the NEC Invitational to win this event the following week and last year he returned from finishing 31st to lie 3rd after three rounds, only to shoot a final round 76 and fall out of contention. He comes off a top-15 finish last week and should go close.

Carl Pettersson to win 33/1 e.w. @ Paddy Power
Back to the traditional strategy off backing players who were playing across the pond in the previous week. Pettersson did miss the cut in the PGA Championship, but it was his first event on that Tour. He had finished in the top-5 in his last European Tour start - the Scandinavian Masters - and had looked to regain his early season form that netted him the Portuguese Open. He should improve on his top-20 finish last year.

Greg Owen to win 80/1 e.w. @ William Hill, Ladbrokes or Stan James
Did look at Owen last week, but he was just coming back from a missed cut in the PGA Championship the week before. He finished 16th to restore some confidence and is a much better player than the price quoted. He secured five top-10 finishes in seven events from April to June and finished 5th on this course two years ago. Unlikely to secure his maiden Tour win this week, but worth a punt for a place at these odds. Might be worth waiting to see what price Five Dimes quote for a top-5 place only.

Amendment:

Greg Owen to finish in the top-five 16/1 @ Five Dimes
Had to wait longer than expected, but Five Dimes did match the 80/1 on Owen and at 1/5 odds for the top-5 only, this looks the better play on Owen.

Matchup plays (1.5 units unless stated):

Ian Woosnam to beat Andrew Coltart -111 @ Ladbrokes [3 units]
Will oppose Coltart again. Still amazed that Evans could not beat him last week when he finished 68th. Woosie should be more dependable - his only missed cut on the European Tour this season was his season-opener in Singapore. Coltart has missed two of his last six, only made last week by a single shot and finished nine shots behind Woosie in last year's event.

Gary Evans to beat Matthew Cort -139 @ Centrebet
Expecting a let-down from Cort after the nerves of last week's finish - his 7th place finish secured his Card for next season - and a big improvement from Evans who leads 9-2 in their head-to-head matchups.

Barry Lane to beat Ian Garbutt -115 @ Five Dimes
A deserved two-week break for Lane and he should continue his run of good form. Garbutt did secure a top-10 finish last week, but this is a much stronger field/prestigious event and he does not have a good record playing against Lane. He trails 4-13 over the past twelve months.

Barry Lane to beat Andrew Oldcorn -118 @ Easybets
Had he not won the Volvo PGA Championship last year, Oldcorn would have been struggling to retain his Tour Card. He holed out from the fairway on the last hole last week to secure his biggest cheque of the year for 7th place in a minor event and it elevated him to 103rd in the Volvo Order of Merit. This will be his seventh straight event and he is worth opposing. Lane has beaten him in their last seven common events and this should be number seven.

Robert Karlsson to beat Andrew Oldcorn -111 @ Ladbrokes
Karlsson has also beaten Oldcorn in their last seven common events, finished in the top-10 in his last event and is a former winner of this event on this course.

Padraig Harrington to beat Justin Rose +100 @ Victor Chandler
Basically expecting a let-down from Rose this week. His high finishes in the last two weeks would have been more draining than for Harrington and a slow start to the week is expected. So long as Harrington is fit enough to play, he should contend this week. He has been runner-up twice in the last three years and will take the underdog odds in this matchup.

Greg Owen to beat Trevor Immelman -110 @ Intertops
The South African is in great form, but has a dire record on this course. Owen has beaten him on both his previous visits and looks the more likely to secure a top-20 finish than the boom-or-bust Immelman.

Greg Owen to beat Raymond Russell -110 @ Surrey
Opposing Russell for basically the same reasons as Cort - expecting a let-down the week after he secured his Card. He was in serious trouble until he finished 2nd last week - his payout was almost double his earnings for the entire season. He did finish 4th last year, but that was the event that secured his playing privileges for another year. He finished 71st in his next event and expect a similar result this week.

Richard Green to beat Raymond Russell -120 @ Intertops
Top-20 in his last three events, having been first-round leader, and with just two missed cuts in his last 13 starts, Green looks a good prospect for matchup bets most weeks. Against Russell, he should have little trouble.

Mid-point update:

Woosnam/Coltart LOST by 7
Evans/Cort WON by 5
Lane/Garbutt Leads by 2
Lane/Oldcorn WON by 6
Karlsson/Oldcorn WON by 6
Harrington/Rose Trails by 3
Owen/Immelman All Square
Owen/Russell WON by 4
Green/Russell WON by 2

Bjorn 4th
Pettersson 55th
Owen 29th

Very satisfactory position at the cut with six matchups decided and five winners. Losing to Coltart again, and in the double-play, is frustrating as Woosie has not been missing cuts until this week. Bjorn lies just one shot behind the leaders and should reap some reward from the outrights.

Final update:

Matchups: 7-2-0; +5.52 units

Lane/Garbutt WON by 3
Harrington/Rose WON by 2
Owen/Immelman LOST by 12

Outrights: 1-2; +10.13 units

Bjorn 1st
Pettersson 24th
Owen 63rd

Great event. No need to say anything else.