British Open

Outright plays (1.5 units)

Sergio Garcia to win 20/1 e.w. @ Five Dimes (.75 units to win & .75 units to finish in top-5) or Sporting Odds among others
The nightmare of Carnoustie has long been forgotten and he has proved on other occasions (Irish Open, Dunhill Cup, Loch Lomond Invitational) that he is a good links player. Won't make for enjoyable viewing, but Garcia is certainly a future major winner and warrants attention in the full market.

Padraig Harrington to win 33/1 e.w. @ Five Dimes (.75 units to win & .75 units to finish in top-5) among others
The next two would be prime candidates for the 'w/o Woods' market every time, but there is a substantial drop in odds for these players in these markets and I think this is the major that Woods would have found the hardest to win this year. Extremely consistent player - apart from a missed cut at the Volvo PGA, he has finished no worse than 12th in any event since the beginning of April, and that run includes two majors - he is another good links and wind player. With two good weeks in Ireland behind him, he is a very strong candidate to be in contention on the final day.

Davis Love to win 33/1 e.w. @ Five Dimes (.75 units to win & .75 units to finish in top-5) or Bet365 among others
Impossible to ignore his record in this event. His 21st place finish last year was his worst, by some distance, result in the past five years. He has also been in great form in the past three months, having lead in the Masters, secured two top-five finishes in the next month and finished runners-up on both his last two outings. Like Harrington, he does not convert his chances often enough, but completes a trio of proven links and wind players.

Matchup plays (1.5 units unless stated):

Michael Campbell to beat Niclas Fasth -110 @ Sportingbet
Campbell is in great form in Europe - his last five finishes read 3rd, 16th, 4th, 1st and 6th. It is no surprise that he leads Fasth 5-0 in common European events over the last three months. A good links player, he should have another very good week.

Michael Campbell to beat Justin Rose -110 @ Carib or WIT
Just don't see a good week from Rose, particularly not in this event given the pressure of expectation after his 1999 debut. Too erratic for me. He has missed the cut and won the next event four times this year! And on two other occasions he has followed a missed cut with a top-5 finish. After his top-5 finish last week, he looks a decent bet to miss the cut on this year's form.

Padraig Harrington to beat Darren Clarke -110 @ Surrey
In better form, Clarke would have been hopeful of winning this title. His record on links golf is excellent. But so is that of Harrington, and with a head-to-head record in Europe of 5-1 over the past three months and 10-4 over the past year, I'll back Harrington again this week.

Colin Montgomerie to beat Darren Clarke +100 @ Sporting Odds
Monty is still a long way from his best, but is still looking more competitive than he has done for at least a year. A decent, consistent record in the Open and a 7-0 head-to-head against Clarke in Europe over the past three months is enough for me.

Colin Montgomerie to beat Justin Rose -122 @ Five Dimes [3 units]
Top-25 for Monty; a struggle to make the cut for Rose. The logical play if this is what I believe.

Eduardo Romero to beat Justin Rose -111 @ Sporting Odds
A little wary of siding with last week's winner, but he has a good record in links golf, is far more consistent and has a 3-month head-to-head advantage of 5-1 over the Englishman.

Tom Lehman to beat Brad Faxon -130 @ Aces
While Faxon struggled around Loch Lomond last week, Lehman finished impressively in 6th place. Has an extremely impressive record in Scotland, at Loch Lomond and in this event, and should revel in the links golf.

Final update:

Matchups: 1-6; -10.58 units

Campbell/Fasth LOST by 2 (at the cut)
Campbell/Rose LOST by 2 (at the cut)
Harrington/Clarke WON by 6
Montgomerie/Clarke LOST by 12
Montgomerie/Rose LOST by 14
Romero/Rose LOST by 2 (at the cut)
Lehman/Faxon LOST by 1 (at the cut)

 Outrights: 1-2; -1.44 units

Garcia 8th
Harrington 5th
Love 14th