Deutsche Bank - SAP Open

Outright plays (1.5 units):

Padraig Harrington to finish in the top-four 3.75/1 @ Centrebet
Tiger has been beaten by both Westwood (this event in 2000) and Bjorn (2001 Dubai Desert Classic) in Europe and by Clarke in last year's WGC Matchplay, so a precedent has been set. However, Harrington is a rather different player. He just doesn't win enough and last week's 3rd place finish was another example of his failings to seize his opportunities. In great form, as ever, and with a top-5 finish here last year, I expect him to finish highly. But even if he beats Tiger, I'll be surprised if he wins. A very conservative play on Padraig.

Michael Campbell to win 33/1 e.w. @ LuvBet
Cambo should have beaten Tiger last year. He had a 10-shot lead over him after 36 holes, but surrendered that when errant driving cost him a 3rd round 73 to Tiger's 63. But even then it took a holed 7-iron from Tiger at the 13th to move ahead of the Kiwi and ultimately claim victory. I don't know if he can win a second time around, but he comes into the event from a top-3 finish at the Belfry - his third of the season - and has already won on German soil - 2000 German Masters. Value play at these odds.

John Daly to win 40/1 e.w. @ Bet365, BetDirect or UKBetting
Hadn't played the course in the old format, but it looks to suit Big John's game. There are two par-fives in the first three holes! Secured a top-10 finish last week at the Belfry in his first start since withdrawing after an opening 66 in the WorldCom Classic and should have high expectations on his return to Germany. Last year he won the prestigious BMW International in August and finished 2nd in the German Masters. If the course plays as expected, he could be a genuine contender (if he makes it to the weekend).

Matchup plays (1.5 units unless stated):

Nick Faldo to beat Paul Casey -110 @ LuvBet [4.5 units]
Faldo won a hat-trick of matchups last week and I'm hoping he'll hit a double this week! Highly creditable 11th place finish last week was evidence enough that he'd brought his Masters and TPC (first three rounds) form with him. In fact, with the exception of the two weeks that covered the Malaysian Open (mc) and the Dubai Desert Classic (40th), his form this year has been a revelation. Many things have been expected of Casey this year, but he has failed to live up to them so far with a poor early season on the PGA Tour. This will be his second start on the European Tour this season and he can only improve on his 77-76 last week.

Nick Faldo to beat Peter O'Malley -118 @ Easybets [3 units]
Excellent, as ever, on the Australasian Tour, O'Malley has not yet found his game in Europe, finishing over-par in both the French Open and the Benson & Hedges International. Has played well on this course previously, but he had been in better form at the time and should struggle against a rejuvenated Faldo.

Bernhard Langer to beat Adam Scott -111 @ BetandWin
Siding with the dependably consistent and fully-committed Langer in this matchup. Secured a top-25 finish on his first start in Europe this season and has an outstanding record in his own country. Scott is much more erratic - it took the lowest round of the day on Sunday to haul him into a top-20 position and his record in the three German events last year was unimpressive. Top-20 finish for Langer; anywhere for Scott.

John Daly to beat Adam Scott -115 @ Five Dimes
After the dependable Langer, this can hardly be a play on consistency over unpredictability! Could see two 80s from this pair or two 63s. But Daly has been more consistent this year and willing to save a round than in previous seasons. He also comes into this event off a top-10 finish and has a much more impressive record in Germany than Scott.

Lee Westwood to beat Stephen Leaney -110 @ LuvBet [3 units]
Two players I would look to oppose at the moment and I can't see this lasting beyond Friday. But Westwood is a double-winner of this event (1998 and 2000), albeit at Gut Kaden, and so we should see a more positive outlook from the Englishman this week. Leaney has missed both his starts in Europe this season with a lowest 18-hole score of 74. Definitely one to oppose.

Mid-point update:

Faldo/Casey LOST by 1
Faldo/O'Malley LOST by 1
Langer/Scott Trails by 1
Daly/Scott LOST by 3
Westwood/Leaney LOST by 1

Harrington 31st
Campbell 50th
Daly mc

Geez! Lost over 10 units on one-shot losses   Made 30 units on the B&H last week and looked like I'll give at least half of them back this week! Only remains for Langer to save any return on this event. Unbelievable!

Final update:

Matchups: 0-5; -15.19 units

Langer/Scott LOST by 9

Outrights: 0-3; -4.50 units

Harrington 12th
Campbell 16th

Nothing more to add