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Dubai Desert Classic
Course: Emirates Golf Club, Dubai, United Arab Emirates
Yardage: 7185
Par: 72 (four par-fives)
Greens: Tiff Green 328 overseeded with Poa Trivialis
Past Winners:
2001 - Thomas Bjorn
2000 - Jose Coceres
1999 - David Howell
1998 - Jose Maria Olazabal
1997 - Richard Green
1996 - Colin Montgomerie
1995 - Fred Couples
1994 - Ernie Els
1993 - Wayne Westner
1992 - Seve Ballesteros
Outright plays:
Padraig Harrington to win 12/1 e.w. @ NetBetSports
Basically the best of the rest. When Els paired up with Goosen to win the World
Cup in Japan last November, he played the following week and finished 3rd in the
Australian Open, some distance behind Appleby and admitting he was tired. He
took a week off and won the Vodacom Players Championship the week afterwards.
Expect the same here. A strong performance, but just too tired mentally to win
again. This should leave the contest open for one the three selections here.
Harrington was 2nd last and played reasonably well considering his rustiness
last week. He should finish in the top-6 at the very least.
Colin Montgomerie to win 18/1 e.w. @ Sporting Odds
Monty has won this event once and finished in the top-5 in another five out of
the ten stagings of this event. The enforced rest from his back scare will have
helped him, but more importantly for the big man, so will the support over the
past week or so since he announced that he would not return to American shores.
With ego suitably re-inflated, he could be back to his best this week.
Adam Scott to win 33/1 e.w. @ William Hill [5 places
option]
A prodigious talent, this could well be his breakout year. He
will win on the European Tour this year, but probably a week when not selected!
72-hole plays:
Thongchai Jaidee to beat Arjun Atwal -105 @ TattsBet
Decent 28th place finish last year for Jaidee against no
course form for Atwal and with this also being Atwal's fifth event in a row,
including the career-changing win in the Singapore Masters, I expect him to
return to form only after he has taken a rest and taken stock of what he has
achieved with that win in Singapore.
Darren Clarke to beat Ian Woosnam +100 @ Surrey
Woosie has great form on this course and finished 6th last
week, but I just see this as a match that Clarke should win every time. The only
things that stops him is himself. I'll bite at this price.
Mathias Gronberg to beat Trevor Immelman -111 @
Victor
Chandler
Both players returning from successful spells on the ANZ
Tour, but I just think Immelman flatters to deceive when in Europe. True, he
finished 8th here last year and in the Trophee Lancome, and 9th in the Italian
Open, but apart from those three events, his performances on the European and
Challenge Tours since 1999 have been very poor when in the Northern Hemisphere.
Gronberg closed last year's season with back-to-back top-10 finishes, has had a
good winter in Australia and did finish 4th here last year.
Anthony Wall to beat Trevor Immelman +100 @ William Hill
Wall tends to have very good starts to the season and starts
to falter by the middle of the year. The same thing has happened this year with
good performances on the ANZ Tour and while he does not have a great record on
this course and his top-10 finish in 1999 was on another course, I will take
Wall to finish in the top-25 as enough to beat Immelman at an attractive price.
Mark O'Meara to beat Justin Rose -111 @ Sporting Odds
Rose stayed in Southern African to secure his automatic place
in the Open Championship and has not played since. His record on his record to
Europe from the Southern Hemisphere is not good. A high of 76th and three missed
cuts in Dubai and Qatar in the last two years is not encouraging. He should
perform better this year, but can't see him finishing in the top-20. If
O'Meara's performances at the end of last season and in the 2nd place at the
Buick Invitational are anything to go by, we could see a much better performance
from him this year now that he is not playing #2 to Tiger in Dubai.
Mid-point update:
Jaidee/Atwal WON by 3
Clarke/Woosnam Trails by 4
Gronberg/Immelman Leads by 2
Wall/Immelman Leads by 4
O'Meara/Rose LOST by 9
Harrington 59th
Montgomerie mc
Scott 59th
Looks like I'll need to win all three remaining matchup plays just to cover some awful outright picks!
Final update:
Matchups: 3-2; +0.89 units
Clarke/Woosnam WON by 6
Gronberg/Immelman WON by 4
Wall/Immelman LOST by 2
Outrights: 0-3; -3.00 units
Harrington 20th
Scott 46th
At least the matchup plays were profitable and for Wall's disappointing 74-74 weekend, they could have covered the outright plays. Called it wrong on Els. Deserved to win and looks to be in fine shape for Augusta.
