Dunhill Links Championship

Outright plays (1.5 units):

Retief Goosen to win 12/1 e.w. @ Bet365, Blue Square and BetInternet
Goosen's record in this event is compelling. Last year he shot four sub-70 rounds to finish in the top-10 and in the preceding format, he was virtually unbeatable, winning ten straight matches for the South African team. With three top-10 finishes in the last six British Opens, including Carnoustie in 1999, his form is general to links golf and not just specific to St. Andrews. Having now overtaken Els at the top of the Volvo Order of merit following his 2nd place finish in the American Express Championship, he should extend his lead over his compatriot who is a false favourite this week.

Padraig Harrington to finish in the top-four 4.25/1 @ Centrebet
It would seem to be no-brainer that opposing the European team is the right strategy this week, but history suggests not. In 1999, the week after the devastating loss at Brookline, eight of the European Ryder Cup team played in the German Masters and all eight made the cut with seven of them finishing in the top-30. Incredibly, seven of them finished in the top-30 and Garcia beat Harrington (and Woosnam) in a playoff for the title. Maybe 1997 is more relevant as the Europeans won the trophy on European soil. The week after Valderrama, European team members filled seven of the top-10 positions in the German Masters, including the top-3! So siding with Harrington, though would have taken Monty had it not been this event, who boasts an excellent record in this event - 5th last year and a record of 9 wins, 4 losses plus a playoff defeat in the Dunhill Cup. He started last week pulling his irons, but had fixed that by Sunday and if his putting is solid, he should go very close. As with the Funk play in the Michelob Championship, because of his record of near-misses, the place-only option looks the safest play and as with the Funk play, this play is provisional at the moment. If Five Dimes offer at least the same odds for a top-5 finish, this will be the final play.

Niclas Fasth to win 50/1 e.w. @ Victor Chandler
Incredibly unlucky not to be the player who will remembered as winning the 2001 Ryder Cup. Was unlucky that he only gained a half-point from three matches despite being a cumulative 11-under-par for those three matches. Hasn't played in this event before, but can boast a top-30 finish in this year's British Open and a runners-up spot last year, so he can obviously play links golf. A very intense player on the course, he can easily cope with the pressures of his first Ryder Cup and he is due for a lot of good luck this week!

Matchup plays (1.5 units unless stated):

Angel Cabrera to beat Lee Westwood -111 @ BetandWin
Westwood played much better last week, but only with Garcia. They were both wayward and Garcia, in particular, played some excellent recovery shots to grind out the pars. May see an improved performance from the Englishman, but not his first top-10 of the year given his vocal criticism of St. Andrews in the past. Cabrera has played well in the tournament (and its predecessor) and should win with ease.

Niclas Fasth to beat Lee Westwood -115 @ Intertops
Westwood would not have been in these matchups but for his performance last week. On a tight, inland course, he could post a good score, but not good enough against Fasth whose record in the British Open should be a good indicator for this week.

Michael Campbell to beat Paul Casey -110 @ BetInternet
Looking at both players having a good event, but feel that Campbell is a potential winner this week. He had a run of very high finishes in some very high quality events in the past three months and has shown himself to be a good links player in the past.

Nick Faldo to beat Glen Day -115 @ GlobalSportsbet [3 units]
Day is a strange entry into this event. He has played four British Opens, including Carnoustie in 1999, and has missed the cut on all four occasions being a cumulative 36-over-par! His top-3 finish in the Tampa Bay Classic will be of little relevance this week as he tries to once again cope with links golf. Very opposable and particularly with someone as steady as Faldo.

Paul McGinley to beat Glen Day -115 @ Five Dimes [3 units]
Steady and a good record in links golf make McGinley another automatic selection against Day. Should win even with a hangover from last Sunday!

Adam Scott to beat Steve Elkington -115 @ Intertops
Elk's runner-up spot in this year's British Open was an anomaly. True, he did finish 6th round St. Andrews in 1995, but in eleven other British Opens, he has yet to finish in the top-30 and is a cumulative 55-over-par. He missed the cut in last year's event as well. Scott tends to play his best golf in mid-summer, but he should easily make the cut to win this matchup.

Adding (1.5 units):

Vijay Singh to beat Paul Lawrie -154 @ Easybets
Needed to look at the weather forecast for this matchup! A good weather player against the ultimate bad weather one. Lawrie won the British Open at Carnoustie in very difficult conditions, as he did in the Wales Open earlier this year and in atrocious conditions last year. He's not been particularly good in normal conditions either. His last eight finishes read: 53rd, 59th, 1st (Wales Open), mc, 65th (of 78), 2nd, mc, 54th (of 65). Singh has been in excellent form of late and if the weather stays dry, albeit not particularly warm, he should again play well at St. Andrews.

Eduardo Romero to beat Ian Poulter -118 @ Easybets
Poulter is not a links golfer and while he is capable of some very high finishes, none of these have been on links courses and he has a very high percentage of missed cuts for a payer of his calibre. He missed the cut last year and is likely to do so again. Can't see the same from Romero who has a good record in this event.

Post-cut update:

Cabrera/Westwood Leads by 1
Fasth/Westwood Leads by 1
Campbell/Casey LOST by 8
Faldo/Day WON by 9
McGinley/Day WON by 4
Scott/Elkington Leads by 7
Singh/Lawrie Leads by 12
Romero/Poulter Leads by 14

Goosen 23rd
Harrington 1st
Fasth 39th

Looks pretty good after the three-round cut. Easy wins in the double-plays opposing Day and would have had three more matches secured had Westwood and Poulter not finished right on the cut line. In the outrights, Harrington was his customary self taking a double-bogey on the 17th when he had some distance between himself and the field, but he should still secure the place win anyway.

Final update:

Matchups: 6-2-0; +8.63 units

Cabrera/Westwood WON by 5
Fasth/Westwood Tied (wager LOST because of Intertops' tie-breaker rules)
Scott/Elkington WON by 8
Singh/Lawrie WON by 11
Romero/Poulter WON by 12

Outrights: 1-2; +3.38 units

Goosen 35th
Harrington 1st
Fasth 40th

Very profitable event and Harrington finally won again! Sad to lose money on taking the place-only option, but very happy to see him win. He could be one of the best in the world if he could close out events. Still got a gripe about the event though. Westwood birdied the last hole to tie with Fasth and if that were not bad enough, Intertops don't adopt the Vegas rules on golf and grade the match a push, but declare the winner as the player who had the lowest final round score. Great when it works in your favour, but you tend to be able to remember them!