German Masters

Outright plays (1.5 units):

Bernhard Langer to win 20/1 e.w. @ Five Dimes (.75 units to win & .75 units to finish in top-5)
Just gets the nod over Thomas Bjorn in the final three as he should be able to handle being defending champion. He will be too busy with the organisation of the event to be affected by the distractions of the title-holder. His 2nd place finish two weeks ago (in Germany) was his best finish on the European Tour by some distance and with that return to form and his well-publicised record in Germany, he looks a possible winner.

Michael Campbell to win 28/1 e.w. @ Centrebet
Langer won this title last year, but Campbell did so the year before and secured a top-20 finish last year as well. Could have secured a top-5 position last week as a selection, but should be more at ease with the more traditional layout at Gut Larchenhof. In good form and will fear no-one in this field.

Peter Lonard to win 40/1 e.w. @ Five Dimes
Not a former winner of this event and not even a winner this year, but he has done everything but win. His missed cut in the Scottish Open is the only time in his last 11 events that he finished outside the top-20. That is a very impressive record, especially given that he has been playing in the bigger events with the strongest fields. This week is no exception and he can be counted upon to be in contention at least.

Matchup plays (1.5 units):

Angel Cabrera to beat Carl Pettersson -111 @ Ladbrokes
Pettersson beat Cabrera in both the Scottish Open and the British Open, but these were the only times that Cabrera has missed the cut this year and these are the only two occasions in 18 joint events that Pettersson has prevailed. With no course experience, I can't see Pettersson beating the Argentinean this week.

Niclas Fasth to beat Paul Casey -111 @ Ladbrokes
Expecting a good performance from Fasth who finished top-25 last year. It has commented that he is one of the Ryder Cup players out of form, but ignore his disappointing performance in the U.S. last month and his last six finishes read: 37th (U.S. Open), 2nd, 6th, 41st, 28th (British Open) and 6th. Casey is not yet Ryder Cup calibre and this is reflected in the fact that he has beaten Fasth just once in their past ten meetings.

Niclas Fasth to beat Ian Poulter -111 @ Victor Chandler
Poulter erratic play is highlighted by his current pattern of good week-bad week and the yo-yo theory suggests a good week for the Englishman. But with Fasth playing well in Europe and having beaten Poulter in their last five meetings, I think this one will be decided more by Fasth than Poulter.

Nick Faldo to beat Miguel Angel Jimenez -120 @ William Hill
Faldo has disappointed in the last two majors, but his form this remains strong. He fell down the leaderboard last Sunday to 18th place when pushing too hard for the high finish that could earn him entry into next week's WGC event. Not such prospect for Jimenez who has secured just one top-10 finish since the Masters and fell away badly from a promising position last week.

Nick Faldo to beat Ian Woosnam -120 @ Victor Chandler
Woosie was simply awful in Germany two weeks ago. He finished 126th and hit just over half the greens in regulation on a course where 24-under-par won. He has a good record on this course, but looks too out of form to contend this week.

Mid-point update:

Cabrera/Pettersson Leads by 4
Fasth/Casey Trails by 6
Fasth/Poulter Trails by 1
Faldo/Jimenez All Square
Faldo/Woosnam Trails by 9

Langer 23rd
Campbell mc
Lonard mc

Desperate performance by the outrights, with the partial exception of Langer who had reached 3rd place before dropping shots over the final holes on Friday. Not looking good in the matchups either, but at least they are all alive. Looks like Woosie find his game though.

Final update:

Matchups: 2-3; -2.27 units

Cabrera/Pettersson WON by 11
Fasth/Casey LOST by 13
Fasth/Poulter WON by 1
Faldo/Jimenez LOST (ties lose @ William Hill)
Faldo/Woosnam LOST by 9

Outrights: 0-3; -4.50 units

Langer 10th

Got lucky and then unlucky. Poulter dropped three shots in the last three holes to hand victory to Fasth and then Faldo looked to have beaten Jimenez by one, only for the Spaniard's score to be changed later to tie Faldo. And ties aren't good enough with the Euro books. Bad week.