Trophee Lancome

Outright plays (1.5 units):

Sergio Garcia to win 13/2 @ Sporting Odds, Sportingbet or UKBetting
Would have backed Monty had he taken last week off, but surely he and Bjorn will be too tired to compete this week. Garcia did rest last week and he needed it, both physically and emotionally, after the Belfry win. He should be in great shape for this event, displayed good form at the Belfry and has an awesome, if limited record in Europe over the past twelve months. He has only played three times over the past year and his record reads 1st (2001 Trophee Lancome), 1st (2002 Canarias Open de Espana) and 8th (British Open) when he finished only two shots out of the playoff. Top-ranked by some distance and should win.

Adam Scott to win 20/1 e.w. @ Bet365, UKBetting or BetDirect
Has seen a return to his earlier season form in the last two months, winning the Scottish PGA Championship, top-25 in the PGA Championship and top-10 last week in the process. He has become a very good front-runner - in both his wins this year he has led from day 2 to the finish - and should be able to capitalise on the tiredness of some of the leading players. Should improve on his debut finish of 11th last year.

Paul Casey to win 33/1 e.w. @ Sporting Odds or Sportingbet
Last week's missed cut was a surprise. Discounting the British Open, his previous eight finishes in Europe read: 13th, 13th, 9th, 11th, 11th, 7th, 10th, 3rd. Extremely consistent and rather like Charles Howell, he is starting to show their talent after both were widely tipped to take their respective Tours by storm at the start of the year, but disappeared under the weight of expectation. Maybe he can draw some inspiration from Howell's victory last week, but even if not, he is certainly a good enough player to be in contention on Sunday evening.

Matchup plays (1.5 units):

Colin Montgomerie to beat Thomas Bjorn -135 @ Carib
Monty will probably be too tired to win on Sunday, but looks good against another Ryder Cup player who is not just playing for the second consecutive week after the Ryder Cup [fancied McGinley in a few matchups, but thought the Ryder Cup letdown would come this week], but is playing competitive golf for the eighth straight week! A remarkable feat given that it includes two events in the U.S. and a Ryder Cup. Surely Bjorn is running on empty. Even if not, former Lancome Trophy winner Monty has a 12-3-1 lead over the Dane in the last twelve months and that is enough reason for optimism.

Angel Cabrera to beat Trevor Immelman -125 @ Centrebet
Immelman has some good credentials for this week with a top-10 finish and some very impressive form over the summer, but Cabrera has been playing the bigger events and when they have met, it has been the Argentinean who has prevailed: 9-2-0 over the last twelve months and 3-0-0 in the last month.

Angel Cabrera to beat Justin Rose -115 @ Intertops
Basically opposing Rose for the sad reason that he has been affected by the death of his father, who was also his mentor and coach. He vowed to play on after his father died of cancer, but he has since broken 70 only twice in eight rounds in two very low-scoring events. Can't see a winning performance from Justin at the moment. Will side again with Cabrera who should finish top-20 with ease.

Eduardo Romero to beat Justin Rose -102 @ Five Dimes
Will take Romero at these odds. Gifted victory to Harrington last week, but currently ranks 4th in the Volvo Order of Merit which is an extremely impressive performance from a player who has never finished in the top-10 and is less than two years from being eligible to join the Senior Tour. Has had a couple of top-5 finishes in recent years at St.-Nom-la-Breteche and is capable of winning any event in his current form.

Mid-point update:

Montgomerie/Bjorn Leads by 2
Cabrera/Immelman Leads by 3
Cabrera/Rose Leads by 6
Romero/Rose Leads by 3

Garcia 10th
Scott mc
Casey 27th

Decent position at the cut with all four matchups leading, though none were settled as the cut line rose late in the day to save Rose. Left to rue omitting the McGinley plays as I "thought the Ryder Cup letdown would come this week" ... he would have beaten both Jacquelin and Pettersson at the cut. Still hopeful of a return on the outrights. Garcia is only 2 shots behind 3rd place and Casey 2 shots further back. Of the runaway leaders, Lafeber has never won on Tour and Cejka's last victory on the main Tour was in 1995. They will come back to the field.

Final update:

Matchups: 4-0-0; +6.00 units

Montgomerie/Bjorn WON (Bjorn withdrew after 3rd round 81)
Cabrera/Immelman WON by 5
Cabrera/Rose WON by 15
Romero/Rose WON by 11

Outrights: 0-3; -4.50 units

Garcia 5th
Casey 13th

Almost a very good event. Another good week in the matchups with some very convincing wins, but could have had a profitable week in the outrights as well. Casey was 3rd when he stood on the final tee, but he went for glory and found the water not the hole-side. If he had just dropped one shot he would have finished 5th, but he failed to get up and down from the drop. Garcia always had too much to catch up the leaders.