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Madeira Island Open
Course: Santo da Serra Golf Club, Santa Cruz, Madeira
Yardage: 6664
Par: 72 (four par-fives)
Greens: Penncross, Poa Annua
Past Winners:
2001 - Des Smyth
2000 - Niclas Fasth
1999 - Pedro Lindart
1998 - Mats Lanner
1997 - Peter Mitchell
1996 - Jarmo Sandelin
1995 - Santiago Luna
1994 - Mats Lanner
1993 - Mark James
Outright plays (1.5 units unless stated):
Peter Fowler to win 22/1 e.w. @ Eurobet
[5 places option]
Played on the side of a mountain, course experience is essential at Santo da
Serra and all three selections have that. Fowler finished 15th last year to meet
that requirement so it primarily his current form that makes him stand out at
this price. He had finished 10th in the Johnnie Walker Classic, 2nd in the
Heineken Classic and 3rd in the Jacob's Creek Open before returning to the
European Tour to finish 12th in Qatar last week. Against a field comprised
primarily of European Challenge Tour regulars, he is just too a player for this
company and is better value than Bickerton at twice his odds.
Andrew Oldcorn to win 33/1 e.w. @ Eurobet [5 places
option]
The only Category 2 player in the field, the reigning Volvo PGA Champion also
looks too good for this field. The obligatory top-15 finish last year means he
satisfies the course experience requirement and he looks to be in great form. He
opened his season in the Dubai Desert Classic and finished 7th, while he
withdrew 'for personal reasons' after a first-round level-par 72 last week. I
don't know the full reasons for his withdrawal, but it doesn't appear that he
was injured so, like Fowler, he has been playing well against much better
company to warrant this price.
David Lynn to win 66/1 e.w. @ BetInternet
Lynn bucks the trend of in-form selections. He has just one round from ten this
year under par. Thankfully, it was his last round, but it was not enough to
enable him to make the cut in Qatar after an opening 76. The reason for his
selection is solely his course form. Back-to-back 7th place finishes on this
course must surely be inspiration enough for the Englishman to reverse his
current run of form. Worth a speculative punt at 66/1.
Matchup plays (1.5 units unless stated):
Daren Lee to beat David Dixon -111 @ Simon Bold
Neither play in great form in regular European Tour events, but crucially Lee
has experience on this course and Dixon does not. Top-20 finish for Lee at Santo
da Serra last time around and he is more than capable of repeating that feat
this week.
Mark Mouland to beat Scott Drummond -111 @ Simon Bold
Again lots of course experience against none. Drummond may have had a very good
season on the Southern Africa Tour, but he has struggled in his two European
Tour starts to date - 58th in the Sao Paolo Open and a missed cut in the North
West of Ireland Open, both last year - and missed the cut in the European
Challenge Tour's Kenya Open on his last start. Together with no course
experience, he should be one to oppose.
Santiago Luna to beat Ben Mason -111 @ Simon Bold
[3 units]
Ditto! Great course form and even a winner of this title (though it was on a
different course at the time), Luna is an automatic selection here. No course
experience and selected for this matchup presumably on the basis of his two
top-10 finishes on the Challenge Tour this month, Mason may make the cut
but he is not in the class of Luna, particularly on this course.
Mid-point update:
Lee/Dixon Void (Dixon did not start)
Mouland/Drummond WON by 11
Luna/Mason Leads by 8
Fowler 40th
Oldcorn 1st
Lynn 7th
Decent start to the event. Course experience vs. no experience proves profitable with an easy win with Mouland and a healthy lead with Luna. Fowler had a difficult day, but looking very promising with the other outright plays.
Final update:
Matchups: 2-0-0; +4.50 units
Luna/Mason WON by 12
Outrights: 0-3; -4.50 units
Fowler 27th
Oldcorn 18th
Lynn 18th
Infuriating event and very frustrating that there was no live coverage so I could see why Oldcorn and Lynn collapsed from such good positions. Can blame it on the particularly adverse conditions faced by those teeing off late in the 3rd round, but there was no sign of a bounce-back in the 4th. At least the matchups covered the outlay on the outrights. Very disappointing.
